by Snowball »
27 Nov 2018 10:14
Essentially, our terrible start (6 Games) is blinding people
Since that block we have played 12 games for 15 points at 1.25 ppg
1.25 ppg extrapolates to 57.5 points (57/58) for a season.
18 games at that rate would have accrued 22 or 23 points and would see us about 13th (Stoke) or 14th (Bristol)
Like most here I don’t think we are a great side, but we have decent players
The main issue is lack of confidence stemming from Stam’s team’s horrible decline, just escaping relegation under Clement, and our bad (points-wise) start
Most think we “should have won” our opening game v Derby
Just that one win and we would be 13th
I worry about this coming 6-game block, especially if it starts with a heavy reverse at Elland Road, but a close game, even if a defeat and I won’t be panicking
Seven points from the next six would be great, even six draws would be nice
Excluding improvents due to the January transfer window, I would expect us to get 35 points from the next 28 games taking us to 52.
However, if we settle at 1.25 ppg (say the next 12 games = 15) I’d expect a confidence bonus and a finish 57-61
EZA’s return would be nice, and a shake up in January, but I don’t think a 60+ finish is over-optimistic