Who will go down?

[sucatraps]

I think Bolton are too good to go down.

I thought West Ham & Leeds were to go to go down....

Newcastle are too good to go down, but still could.

I have a suspicion that GC's comment may have been tongue in cheek irony

[79Royal]

I can only see us getting 36 points. I had Sunderland getting 35 and Newcastle 36 behind us, so we stay up by a point, by my calculations. I'm not very good with predicting results though.

[Whore Jackie]

Think 36 points will be the magic number this year. I fancy us to scrape 37.
Either Bolton or Newcastle to join Derby and Fulham.

Newcastle's run-in isn't easy and I would not want to be needing anything from their final two games:

Birmingham v Newcastle
Newcastle v Fulham
Tottenham v Newcastle
Newcastle v Reading
Portsmouth v Newcastle
Newcastle v Sunderland
West Ham v Newcastle
Newcastle v Chelsea
Everton v Newcastle

[Humanistic]

There’s no point even considering Derby’s survival- they would need at least 8 wins from their last 10 games. Wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t win again this season.

Fulham’s survival looks unlikely now- they’d have to stick a winning run together now- and that hasn’t happened for a long time.

As for the rest, it’s just too close to call- Sunderland’s and Bolton’s run-ins look especially tough- Kenwyne Jones apart, you just can’t see where the goals are going to come from.

[Jeffers217]

Sunderland, poor team who have picjked up points against rivals so have a harder run in. Wigan can always pick out a win, Brummie have too much quality going forward, Bolton have too much quality. Out of the teams I've seen Boro are the worst but can see them staying up an Newcastlke will get a lucky win to change their season. If we didn't win the last two I think we would defo have gone down.

[TFF]

Think 36 points will be the magic number this year. I fancy us to scrape 37.
Either Bolton or Newcastle to join Derby and Fulham.

Newcastle's run-in isn't easy and I would not want to be needing anything from their final two games:

Birmingham v Newcastle
Newcastle v Fulham
Tottenham v Newcastle
Newcastle v Reading
Portsmouth v Newcastle
Newcastle v Sunderland
West Ham v Newcastle
Newcastle v Chelsea
Everton v Newcastle

Newcastle's season rests on their home games against us, Fulham and a huge Sunderland derby. I think they'll get enough out of those to stay up.

I can't discount us but I think it's between Boro and Bolton. I can't believe no-one is tipping Boro with their run-in:

Aston Villa v Middlesbrough
Arsenal v Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough v Derby
Chelsea v Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough v Man Utd
Tottenham v Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough v Bolton
Sunderland v Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough v Portsmouth
Middlesbrough v Man City

Three points against Derby and big games against Bolton and Sunderland. They might be relying on Citeh having nothing to play for.

Remember they're the only team to lose at home to Reading.

[Leamington Royal]

The more I read this post, the more optimistic I'm getting. I feel Birmingham and Wigan are the least likely to go down. They just have the right kind of players and OK run ins. As for the rest, I wouldn't swap our position and run in.

Bolton are a serious contender, but I'd be very worried if I was Newcastle - Keegan is still thinking about winning trophies and if they don't get something out of their next 2 games they are in serious do-do. I'd be very surpised if we finish below Sunderland, Newcastle or Bolton.

[JC]

Forgetting Derby because they are down I have analysed the remaining fixtures between games against teams in the top half of the table and the bottom. It makes interesting reading

Fulham Top 4(2 home 2 away) Bottom 5(2 home 3 away)
Bolton Top 6(3 home 3 away) Bottom 4(1 home 3 away)
Birmingham Top 6(4 home 2 away) Bottom 4(1 home 3 away)
Sunderland Top 5(4 home 1 away) Bottom 4(1 home 3 away)
Newcastle Top 4(1 home 3 away) Bottom 5(3 home 2 away)
Wigan Top 5(1 home 4 away) Bottom 4(4 home 0 away)
Boro Top 6(3 home 3 away) Bottom 4(2 home 2 away)

Reading Top 3(1 home 2 away) Bottom 6(3 home 3 away)

Bolton look to have the worst by a long way as they have United, Arsenal and Chelsea in their top list and they have only 1 home game against the bottom teams
Wigan are not safe either as they have Blackburn, Pompey, Chelsea, Villa and United to come

On paper ours does look to be easier than most and it is definitely in our own hands

[papereyes]

I can't believe no-one is tipping Boro with their run-in

Probably to their perceived safe 12th position in the league, but if you actually look at the table they are only one point ahead of us.
You are spot on about their run-in, I can't see them gaining many points from those fixtures.

Because people are looking at positions and not points at this stage, which is a bit silly.

Even we may be 13th but a bad week or two and it'll all change.

Look at the points and how we stand in terms of gaps.

[Great Knolly]

Keegan is still thinking about winning trophies

And he seems to like the look of the Championship Trophy. A proper old skool trophy that.

[Stevie G]

I note that Coppell has set a target of 40. This may not be the perenially considered safe mark but actually what he considers we could achieve. My better half and I are forecasting the results for 'our league' for the run in and have us finishing 13th on 36. Then comes The Toon (34), Macams, Brum and Wigan on 32 with Bolton making the drop with 28. We may have been a little critical of Brum, but it is all about the run in matches against the top half.

On another note, what's happened to West Ham - settled for mid-table mediocrity already!

[Scylla]

Forgetting Derby because they are down I have analysed the remaining fixtures between games against teams in the top half of the table and the bottom. It makes interesting reading

Fulham Top 4(2 home 2 away) Bottom 5(2 home 3 away)
Bolton Top 6(3 home 3 away) Bottom 4(1 home 3 away)
Birmingham Top 6(4 home 2 away) Bottom 4(1 home 3 away)
Sunderland Top 5(4 home 1 away) Bottom 4(1 home 3 away)
Newcastle Top 4(1 home 3 away) Bottom 5(3 home 2 away)
Wigan Top 5(1 home 4 away) Bottom 4(4 home 0 away)
Boro Top 6(3 home 3 away) Bottom 4(2 home 2 away)

Reading Top 3(1 home 2 away) Bottom 6(3 home 3 away)

Bolton look to have the worst by a long way as they have United, Arsenal and Chelsea in their top list and they have only 1 home game against the bottom teams
Wigan are not safe either as they have Blackburn, Pompey, Chelsea, Villa and United to come

On paper ours does look to be easier than most and it is definitely in our own hands

City and West Ham are in the top half and I'd play them every week at the moment. I can't see Portsmouth making Europe via the league so they could well lose interest quite soon. Blackburn are another that might not have a lot to play for before very long.

[working class hero]

Well DG is taking a liberty suggesting only one place is up for grabs....

I reckon Fulham might just escape. And even Derby can get 40 points if they win their last 10 games.

I'm voting for us to go down as I know that confidence on my part is the kiss of death for any team I have supported!

[Dr Hfuhruhurr]

Sunderland have the worst manager the premiership has ever seen (including Warnock) - they must have a good chance of going down. NEwcastle have the worst defense in the premiership, Reading have the cheapest team and Boro are stagnant. All in all I cant see Birmingham, Bolton or Wigan going down, regardless of their fixtures. Its between us and the North East Sides.

[Dr Hfuhruhurr]

Well DG is taking a liberty suggesting only one place is up for grabs....

I reckon Fulham might just escape. And even Derby can get 40 points if they win their last 10 games.

I'm voting for us to go down as I know that confidence on my part is the kiss of death for any team I have supported!

The Eddie Johnson signing was the Kiss of D for Fulham

[RoyalChicagoFC]

I just spent an hour crunching out the remaining fixtures of all parties that now find themselves in shark-infested waters, and --lest I be dodded for starting a thread with this-- I'll just post the findings here.

It's strictly a tally of the average number of points won to date by each side's remaining opponents and the average of the current table positions of each remaining opponent; it of course does not factor such things as recent form, home and away form and so on (and, of course, there's no such thing as a portion of either a table point or of table position --but whatever):

Average points won to date by remaining opponents
Reading...35.00
Fulham....35.55
NUFC......37.11
Brum......39.44
Sunlun.....39.89
Boro.......41.56
Wigan.....41.56
Bolton.....41.78

Average current table position of remaining opponents
Fulham....12.00
Reading...11.89
NUFC......11.56
Sunlun.....10.22
Brum......10.11
Boro.......9.78
Wigan.....9.67
Bolton.....8.89

There's a longer version with all remaining fixtures and the data set laid out, but I won't bother with that unless someone wants to see it.

There's a smattering of games in hand, and they'll be played out this midweek (plus Bolton away to United on Wednesday week). I did NOT factor games in hand into the calculations (so Bolton's match away to United does not make their numbers what they are).

Any changes resulting from those games in hand won't have much effect on the numbers seen above.

[Gordons Cumming]

I think once Alliadiere returns for Boro their fortunes will pick up. That will be a slap in the face of the relegation candidates.

[Jase_Royals]

By following this link, you can do the bbc Prem League predictor, hopefully give some sort of idea of how things may end up! i had Derby, Fulham and Bolton for the drop, with us finishing in a comfortable 14th position!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/footbal ... efault.stm

[TFF]

I just spent an hour crunching out the remaining fixtures of all parties that now find themselves in shark-infested waters, and --lest I be dodded for starting a thread with this-- I'll just post the findings here.

It's strictly a tally of the average number of points won to date by each side's remaining opponents and the average of the current table positions of each remaining opponent; it of course does not factor such things as recent form, home and away form and so on (and, of course, there's no such thing as a portion of either a table point or of table position --but whatever):

Average points won to date by remaining opponents
Reading...35.00
Fulham....35.55
NUFC......37.11
Brum......39.44
Sunlun.....39.89
Boro.......41.56
Wigan.....41.56
Bolton.....41.78

Average current table position of remaining opponents
Fulham....12.00
Reading...11.89
NUFC......11.56
Sunlun.....10.22
Brum......10.11
Boro.......9.78
Wigan.....9.67
Bolton.....8.89

There's a longer version with all remaining fixtures and the data set laid out, but I won't bother with that unless someone wants to see it.

There's a smattering of games in hand, and they'll be played out this midweek (plus Bolton away to United on Wednesday week). I did NOT factor games in hand into the calculations (so Bolton's match away to United does not make their numbers what they are).

Any changes resulting from those games in hand won't have much effect on the numbers seen above.

All of which seems to suggest that we're laughing, Bolton are screwed and Fulham might just worry Wigan...

It's certainly a lot more interesting* than this time last year.

*Excluding our flirtation with Europe of course

[Ian Royal]

I've gone with Birmingham because I can see Bolton pulling something out their arse late on ala West Ham last season, Sunderland would be too good to be true and I think Newcastle started their poor run with a few too many points to really lose their status in the prem.

Oh and of course not us, because I think we have showed that we can randomly win games and pick up enough points to stay up. Of the teams around us we pretty much have the most wins, and wins keep you up.