Odds to be top at end of season

[OLLIE KEARNS]

Cardiff have been on the drift ever since they loast Chopra and Routledge and Burnley losing to Swansea has pretty much killed them off. The size of Wolves lead will dictate the rest of the market and them losing effectively means that us and Brum had to shorten.
You could also argue that Brum were overvalued before the weekend fixtures given that we were 9/4 and they were 5/1 despite points being level.
Aside from that the market is reacting to our 9 game unbeated run and sees us as the team with momentum.

[Royal Rother]

...and to yet another manager saying we are the best team in the league and certain to get promoted.

[Arnie_Pie]

1/3 on or better for promotion

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/eng ... /promotion

[Bucks Dave]

As soon as I knew Coppell was staying on I got odds of 8:1 before the season began and chanced £25 each way. I realise this doesn't help at all but it gives me a chance to be a smug b*****d.

[Arnie_Pie]

As soon as I knew Coppell was staying on I got odds of 8:1 before the season began and chanced £25 each way. I realise this doesn't help at all but it gives me a chance to be a smug b*****d.

Good work.

[philM]

As soon as I knew Coppell was staying on I got odds of 8:1 before the season began and chanced £25 each way. I realise this doesn't help at all but it gives me a chance to be a smug b*****d.

I got 8:1 in May (bet £50)

Will just about cover the next season ticket, hopefully.

Class/Sport Event Type Event Market Date Selection Notes
Football Coca Cola Championship |Coca Cola Championship 2008/09| Win Outright £50 Reading @ 8/1

[TFF]

As soon as I knew Coppell was staying on I got odds of 8:1 before the season began and chanced £25 each way. I realise this doesn't help at all but it gives me a chance to be a smug b*****d.

I got 8:1 in May (bet £50)

Will just about cover the next season ticket, hopefully.

Class/Sport Event Type Event Market Date Selection Notes
Football Coca Cola Championship |Coca Cola Championship 2008/09| Win Outright £50 Reading @ 8/1

Same. Took Schards advice last season and staked £50 (9-1) that I'd have been happy to lose on us getting relegated. Did £20 (30 odd - 1)the same this season and £25 (4-1) on promotion and £25 at 8s on winning

Here's to another season of free football (if only I didn't have to pay for the wife and kids too)

EDITED

[OLLIE KEARNS]

I've gone down a different route and backed the following for top league goalscorer

Doyle 16/1 (after Palace game). Now 11/10
NHunt 70/1 (after watching him play against Luton in CC). Now 37/1
Lital 20/1 (at the start of the season). Now 40/1

This is now shaping up quite nicely in that I've been able to lay off my Doyler and NHunt bets. Plus Leroy still has an outside chance should he come into the side.
Biggest win would be Lita-Hunt-Doyle in that order. My main concern of course is a certain Mr Ebanks-Blake !!McCormack would probably be the other main concern.

[loyalroyal4life]

Most goals scored and second best defence in division bodes as decent odds!!

[Dick Habbin's hairdo]

Now I am complete numpty at spread betting and only ever have occasional - and pretty successful - wagers on flat racing on "conventional" odds, so please will someone explain what is meant by the book being at 102% or whatever?

Thanking you

[Sun Tzu]

I got 8:1 in May (bet £50)

Will just about cover the next season ticket, hopefully.

I think that would only cover your ST if we stayed in this division, which of course would mean you'd lost the bet !!

[OLLIE KEARNS]

Now I am complete numpty at spread betting and only ever have occasional - and pretty successful - wagers on flat racing on "conventional" odds, so please will someone explain what is meant by the book being at 102% or whatever?

Thanking you

I'll try Simple example. A man spins a coin and a bookmaker offers Evens for both heads and tails. One man has £50 on heads and another has £50 on evens. Whatever the outcome the bookmaker will pay out the £100 that he has taken in bets (winners £50 profit plus his stake back) which constitutes a 100% book. £100 in and £100 out.
In most cases there are a number of outcomes i.e a horse race, and each set of odds will make up a % of the total book. In the coins example each choice represented 50% of the total book. 2 x 50% = 100% book.
A normal bookmaker (bookie at the races for example) will bet to around a 115% book. Again using the coins example he is likely to offer you odds of 10/11 as opposed to evens. The 15% constitutes his profit margin and over a long period of time he would expect to make 15% profit on his gross turnover.
Betfair trades at closer to 100% because it is individuals betting against one another through a broker. Betfair make their money by taking 5% commission on winning bets.
So, Betfair is a much better place to bet than your local bookies because it significanty increases your chances of winning over a long period of time. The closer the book is to 100% the better the value for the punter.
Hope that helps

[rotherwick_royal]

Off-topic but I got 21/1 on Pompey going down as recent as end of October...looking good!

Also 28/1 on Noel Hunt to be top scorer, but he's going to have to go some to catch Doyle.

[Royal Rother]

If you had a 4 horse race to give 100% book all horses would be at 3/1.

1/(3+1) = 25% each - 25% x 4 = 100%

If however 2 were offered at 5/2 and the others at 11/4 that would be as follows:

4/(11+4) = 26.7% x 2 = 53.4%
and
2/(5+2) = 28.6% x 2 = 57.2%

That gives a book of 110.6% so 10.6% over-round (i.e. in favour of the bookie).

(Divide the denominator by the numerator + denominator to find the %age of the book of each odds offered.)

[Dick Habbin's hairdo]

Ollie and RR - blimey, that's arithmetic.... Ahem.

So what you're saying is that only fools bet with bookies and Betfair is a, errr, safer bet?

Now, remind me of the odds of Ollie, Ollie, Ollie planting one over the top of the Tilehurst End?

[OLLIE KEARNS]

Ollie and RR - blimey, that's arithmetic.... Ahem.

So what you're saying is that only fools bet with bookies and Betfair is a, errr, safer bet?

Now, remind me of the odds of Ollie, Ollie, Ollie planting one over the top of the Tilehurst End?

Yep, the odds with Betfair give you a much better chance of winning in the long run. Or, it will take you longer to go skint if you want to look at it differently.
And as for Ollie. Long odds on to stick one over the bar every week. Unless he fell over first of course which was usually the case

[M0J0]

If you had a 4 horse race to give 100% book all horses would be at 3/1.

1/(3+1) = 25% each - 25% x 4 = 100%

If however 2 were offered at 5/2 and the others at 11/4 that would be as follows:

4/(11+4) = 26.7% x 2 = 53.4%
and
2/(5+2) = 28.6% x 2 = 57.2%

That gives a book of 110.6% so 10.6% over-round (i.e. in favour of the bookie).

(Divide the denominator by the numerator + denominator to find the %age of the book of each odds offered.)

interesting take on percentages... using your system how do we get evens to 50%


OK i have worked it out 1/1+1

[Royal Rother]

Let's not forget that Betfair charge commission on winnings - don't they? (Never used them myself.)

[OLLIE KEARNS]

Let's not forget that Betfair charge commission on winnings - don't they? (Never used them myself.)

They do indeed RR. 5% on winning bets. A normal book in full flow will trade at around 101% so your effectively playing in a 106% book. The other key benefit with Betfair is that you can trade in and out of bets should the market move in your favour. For example I've backed Noel Hunt to be top goalscorer in the league at 70/1 but I'v since traded my bet back at 36/1 so I effectively have a free bet at 34/1 to my stake.
Doesn't always work that way but it's a good option to have when you occasionally get a market right

[Royal Rother]

Out of interest I think that is slightly wrong....

Nitpicking really but if I am right that they only charge 5% commission on the net winnings (not including returned stake) then I think it is only 4% that should be added onto the book.

In the e.g. I previously gave of 4 horses all at 3/1, this would be the calculation.
£100 on a 3/1 winner returns £300, less £15 commission = £285. Odds of 2.85/1 effectively.
2.85/1 is the equivalent of 25.974%. Calcn is 1/(2.85+1)
4 x 25.974% x 4 = 103.896%

Is that right? Maybe the fact they only charge 5% commission on the winnings in a each given market complicates this further. (I'm not sure what the definition of "given market" actually is.

Anyway, sorry to be boring. Sleep will come easier now....