How many points for safety

[Cpl Jones Dont panic]

To get the ball rolling I am looking at 49 points shoild do it , especially with bottom teams having to play each other.

[UpNorth]

Will be higher this year as teams in the bottom half up their game to survive.

I'm going for 53 points

[Archie's penalty]

Yeah I reckon it will be 53 points or so. Sheffield Wednesday have 37 from 35 now which is quite high by championship bottom three standards and we haven't even entered the run in where it becomes a free for all.

Still think we'll be easily safe though. 12 points from 13 games...

[PEARCEY]

50

[Arch]

If it's 53, that'll mean all of Wednesday, Palace, Scunthorpe, Ipswich and Watford will have got more than a point a game - in Weds' case 16 points from 11, Palace 16 from 12, Scunny 15 from 12. That's a lot of decent form that would have to come together in all the main relegation candidates.

Wednesday's form converts to around 48-49 points over the season. I'd guess it's likely that at least one of the candidates won't make a point a game the rest of the way.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

53 and we'll be def safe.

that's less than a point a game so win on Sat and were in sight.

[ankeny]

57 this year

[Arch]

57 this year

Are you serious?

[leww_rfc]

According to My BBC predictons..

Safety (21st) will be 49 points.

[JC]

Since the leagues were restructured (17 seasons) the lowest points total to avoid relegation (ie 1 point more than 22nd place) was 43, the average was 48 and the highest 53. So whoever said 57 is talking nonsense. It is far more likely to be 48/49 so we need 3 more wins probably and 4 would be virtually definite.

[Row V]

How many points for safety? If we win our game in hand we're only 8 points off the play-offs!

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Since the leagues were restructured (17 seasons) the lowest points total to avoid relegation (ie 1 point more than 22nd place) was 43, the average was 48 and the highest 53. So whoever said 57 is talking nonsense. It is far more likely to be 48/49 so we need 3 more wins probably and 4 would be virtually definite.

Right, and even that can be skewed --f'rinstance, let's say one side finishes in 21st but had clinched safety on 47 points upon the penultimate matchday and went on to hold out key men against meaningless opposition and get clobbered on the last day; the side that finishes in 22nd were sent down on the penultimate matchday but went on to win their last game to hike their final points haul up to 46 --wow, only one point between safety and relegation at the finish, that must've been a nailbiter to the end (not --and the final margin under this general scenario could've ended up as any whole number between 1 and 7 points)

Here's what I posted in the Relegation Watch thread (and had posted in the Plymouth match thread before then); here it is again, and with the same caveat as above:

2008/9: 21st/51 pts 22nd/46 pts
2007/8: 21st/53 pts 22nd/52 pts
2006/7: 21st/49 pts 22nd/42 pts (Leeds deducted 10 pts; would "of" finished in 22nd on 46 otherwise)
2005/6: 21st/50 pts 22nd/42 pts
2004/5: 21st/50 pts 22nd/50 pts (relegation decided on goal difference)
2003/4: 21st/51 pts 22nd/51 pts (relegation decided on goal difference)
2002/3: 21st/50 pts 22nd/46 pts
2001/2: 21st/49 pts 22nd/49 pts (relegation decided on goal difference)

So long as the sides below us keep dropping points and dragging the safety bar lower and lower with each passing week --and it's worth reminding that any two sides squaring off, and those below us not least of all, cannot come out of it with better than a point apiece (e.g. Ipswich v. Scunny on Saturday and, potentially, Watford v. Ipswich on Tuesday)-- and so long as we, you know, keep winning...

In the end, I think that we'll see a few of the sides below us drawing and losing and that in the end it's going to require fewer points to be safe than it now would appear; I think it'll come down to the last day, and I think it'll be 48 points to safety

[SouthDownsRoyal]

Safety? We are going to finish 6th!

[NR_Royal]

48 I say.

[Sarah Star]

I reckon about 74 for the play-offs, but that's another story...

[PEARCEY]

I reckon about 74 for the play-offs, but that's another story...

I reckon as low as 68 for 6th place this season.

[Arch]

I reckon about 74 for the play-offs, but that's another story...

I reckon as low as 68 for 6th place this season.

Split the difference. 71.

[Sarah Star]

I reckon about 74 for the play-offs, but that's another story...

I reckon as low as 68 for 6th place this season.

Why's that?

When I looked back at other seasons they were roughly on the same points at the same point as the lowest of the six at the top are on now.

In the last 8 years, teams needed 75 points in 2002, 2006 and 2007
74 points in 2003 and 2009
73 points in 2004 and 2005
70 points in 2008

That's why I thought aim for 74, anyway.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

I reckon about 74 for the play-offs, but that's another story...

I reckon as low as 68 for 6th place this season.

So Blackpool to finish out 5W 3D 3L then (and Cardiff out)

Makes sense, and I could see Leicester tumbling out too, thus opening up a second spot to a side with a massive finishing kick (but I've precious little hope it'll be us)

[Arch]

I reckon about 74 for the play-offs, but that's another story...

I reckon as low as 68 for 6th place this season.

Why's that?

When I looked back at other seasons they were roughly on the same points at the same point as the lowest of the six at the top are on now.

In the last 8 years, teams needed 75 points in 2002, 2006 and 2007
74 points in 2003 and 2009
73 points in 2004 and 2005
70 points in 2008

That's why I thought aim for 74, anyway.

To get 73, sixth placed Cardiff would need 21 from 12 games. Very doable, but a better rate of return than they've had so far. Anyone lower would need over two points per game. So the odds a slightly against 7th place having as much as 73 and thus similarly against 6th needing 74.