play-offs?

[Snowball]

While I don't feel that confident about beating QPR on Tuesday night, IF we do
we go three points above them, a better GD and a game in hand.

Six of our next seven games ( shown bold) are against our rivals for the play-offs

Beating QPR gives us a big advantage over them, and they will have just ten games to haul it back

Nobody is saying Middlesboro are out of the running for the play-offs, yet WD our two games in hand and we catch them,
win both our games in hand and we are two points above them. AND WHAT IF WE MANAGE TO WIN AT THEIR PLACE?

Similar scenario with Coventry, a decent little side but with a small squad. If we beat them we are three points behind them
and with two games in hand. if these clubs have a decent shot at the play-offs, then we must have

H QPR
A Middlesbrough
A Leicester City
H WBA
A Ipswich Town
H Coventry City
A Cardiff City
H Newcastle
H Peterborough
A Scunthorpe
A Watford

[PEARCEY]

All true Snowball but it is a tough run of games coming up thats for sure.

[Snowball]

Agreed, Pearcey. but in a way we've been lucky, able
to grow confidence with wins, a confidence that gives
us a real chance of results in the next four games.

Had we had some away defeats like Blackpool, all this talk would be over.

[themadstad]

All points raised are valid but we aren't good enough to get enough points. Our first home defeat in a while will come on Tuesday and the mood on here will be different.

We look vulnerable at the back at times and we aren't so good in the second half. Get a bit sloppy. Do this with QPR and they'll be there to take advantage. Then we'll be chasing the ball more than we have had to.

So defeat to QPR on Tuesday and the mood on here will be different.

[Arch]

First things first we need to avoid losing to QPR and that's not going to be an easy task by any means. And should we somehow actually beat QPR then that'll be another team we go above. That's the direction we need to go in. Lose to QPR then we may fall again, if Derby and Ipswich win.

No doubt, we could quite plausibly get no points from the next three games and start to feel the pressure again. I don't think that's a reason not to speculate about what it would take to get into the playoffs. I'd agree that defeat on Tuesday will pretty much close of debate about the playoffs, but let's see what Tuesday brings. Pretty amazing that both promotion and relegation are genuinely live options in the middle of March.

Having said that, I trust that the mantra in the dressing room is still "WNG".

[leww_rfc]

Thats the point.
Its a very odd season and one that I cannot ever remember happening before in that with just 12 games to go we could end up in one of three different divisions next season. Very odd.

When you put it like that, you make me remember how brilliant the Championship is

[playoffs or layoffs]

While I don't feel that confident about beating QPR on Tuesday night, IF we do
we go three points above them, a better GD and a game in hand.

Six of our next seven games ( shown bold) are against our rivals for the play-offs

Beating QPR gives us a big advantage over them, and they will have just ten games to haul it back

Nobody is saying Middlesboro are out of the running for the play-offs, yet WD our two games in hand and we catch them,
win both our games in hand and we are two points above them. AND WHAT IF WE MANAGE TO WIN AT THEIR PLACE?

Similar scenario with Coventry, a decent little side but with a small squad. If we beat them we are three points behind them
and with two games in hand. if these clubs have a decent shot at the play-offs, then we must have

H QPR
A Middlesbrough
A Leicester City
H WBA
A Ipswich Town
H Coventry City
A Cardiff City
H Newcastle
H Peterborough
A Scunthorpe
A Watford

Agreed.

Having put a speculative tenner on Reading to make the playoffs @20/1 before the Reading Derby game on March 9th, look at how much the odds have shortened since then:

9th March: 19th position, 14 points off sixth position, @20/1
12th March: 17th position, 11 points off sixth, @14/1
14th March: 16th position, 8 points off sixth, @8/1

The top five clubs today will very likely occupy the top five positions at the end of the season, sixth position is realistically the only position that Reading, and half of the remaining clubs in the table, can aim for.

We have a real chance of sixth, providing that Cardiff maintain their poor run of form. Cardiff are second bottom of the form table with one win in six.

IF we can win our two games in hand - giving us 50 points - then providing that we can pick up just one more point - with 30 points to play for - than the clubs in positions 7 to 12, all of whom are below us in the league form table, we will have made it. Coventry and Blackpool with their league position and slightly inferior league form are our biggest rivals.

The calculations are a bit simplistic but it doesn't get away from the fact that today we are probably a lot closer than we might realise.

[leww_rfc]

The Cardiff Game I have a feeling will decide if we get 6th or not.

[themadstad]

The Cardiff Game I have a feeling will decide if we get 6th or not.

We've got a lot to do to be able to get to that stage. And we will have fallen short by then. Let's hope we secure a mid table finish and can build on this squad for a promotion push next season.

[playoffs or layoffs]

The Cardiff Game I have a feeling will decide if we get 6th or not.

And if we are still in with a shout then, it'll probably then go to the last game, at home to Preston, with it all to play for.

Not sure I could cope with all that yet again.

[Very near...far away]

I think a lot of people suffer from the "if we start to talk positively about the team then they're bound to start playing really badly" syndrome.

I think it's highly unlikely that our fears will be the decisive factor in all of this and, if you just expect the worst, you may well get it.

This is a less than stellar division, so any team on a run has a chance.

[The whole year inn]

This is a less than stellar division

generous.

This division is atrocious. Could you imagine what would happen to Leicester, Coventry or Blackpool next season if they got promoted

[RoyalChicagoFC]

[Archie's penalty]

Leicester are by far the best of those three. Coventry would be mauled, just mauled if they went up.

[JC]

To get a clearer picture of things I have a maximum points table which shows where we would be if every team won all their games. Not possible, I know, but it does help to clarify the position around games in hand.
At present it shows us in 8th place on 80 points level with Blackpool in 7th and 5 points behind Cardiff in 6th. Which proves nothing except that there is an outside possibility of the play-offs if we beat the teams we are playing who are above us, in particular QPR, Boro, Coventry, Cardiff and Preston.

[CMRoyal]

We're not going to get into the playoffs. Even a run of seven wins in eight has only taken us 6 points clear of the relegation places. Everybody is picking up points at the moment and we are coming into a tougher run of fixtures. I'm just longing for the day when we have a league match that is totally meaningless.

We can start thinking in terms of playoffs in August.

[Stranded]

We're not going to get into the playoffs. Even a run of seven wins in eight has only taken us 6 points clear of the relegation places. Everybody is picking up points at the moment and we are coming into a tougher run of fixtures. I'm just longing for the day when we have a league match that is totally meaningless.

We can start thinking in terms of playoffs in August.

So at the moment, it's almost as likely that we will reach the play-offs as get relegated?

Makes for an exciting end to the season!!

[Franchise FC]

We're not going to get into the playoffs. Even a run of seven wins in eight has only taken us 6 points clear of the relegation places. Everybody is picking up points at the moment and we are coming into a tougher run of fixtures. I'm just longing for the day when we have a league match that is totally meaningless.

We can start thinking in terms of playoffs in August.

Although it is not particularly likely that we'll reach the play-offs, the facts are :

[Snowball mode on]
On 26th January we were 18 points behind 6th place having played the same number of games.
We were 4 points BEHIND 21st place having played a game more.

We are now 8 points behind 6th place with a game in hand, and 6 points ahead of the team in 22nd (ironically the same team that were 21st on 26th January), with a game in hand.

We've gained the equivalent of 13 points on the team in 6th place in 6 weeks
We've gained the equivalent of 16 points over the bottom clubs in the same 6 weeks

[Snowball mode off]

[CMRoyal]

We're not going to get into the playoffs. Even a run of seven wins in eight has only taken us 6 points clear of the relegation places. Everybody is picking up points at the moment and we are coming into a tougher run of fixtures. I'm just longing for the day when we have a league match that is totally meaningless.

We can start thinking in terms of playoffs in August.

Although it is not particularly likely that we'll reach the play-offs, the facts are :

[Snowball mode on]
On 26th January we were 18 points behind 6th place having played the same number of games.
We were 4 points BEHIND 21st place having played a game more.

We are now 8 points behind 6th place with a game in hand, and 6 points ahead of the team in 22nd (ironically the same team that were 21st on 26th January), with a game in hand.

We've gained the equivalent of 13 points on the team in 6th place in 6 weeks
We've gained the equivalent of 16 points over the bottom clubs in the same 6 weeks

[Snowball mode off]

All true, and statistically there's absolutely no doubt that on current form we will win the Champions League in 2012. However, I'm sure we won't be able to maintain our current form over the forthcoming more difficult run of fixtures, so in my opinion it's a question of gradually increasing that cushion from the bottom. I hope I'm wrong, but I just can't see us threatening the playoff places.

[Millsy]

I reckon if we continue our current form and we're lucky with other results we may, just may, avoid relgation.