will we make play offs

[Arch]

The teams in the top six have the points. They have better ppg and would be marginally expected to stay ahead. There's not much in it, but it's hard to justify the view that we're more likely to get into the playoffs than Forest or Leeds.

But surely when you put together the facts that, our game in hand is at home to the bottom club, we have a superior goal difference to all (I think) of our rivals and a rather easy run-in, any predictors of the top six come the end of the season would now include us.

Yesterday's results were hugely significant and even though we could still implode, it's the clubs who are improving (and we are doing so with a squad currently down to the bare bones but with all absentees expected back well before the end of the campaign) who will be most fancied to push on.

All neutrals will have us pencilled in for a place in the play offs and many will fancy us to finish higher than 6th.

Probabilities are strange and slippery things. Take the probability that we'll finish ahead of Forest. Setting aside some unlikely paths, we'd need three things: beat Preston at home, draw with or beat Forest, equal or better them in the other games. I'd agree with you that the probability of each of those things happening is greater than 0.5. But that doesn't mean the probability of all three happening is greater than 0.5. In fact if the probability of each is as high as 0.75 (which it isn't in any of the cases), the probability of all three is less than 0.5. Obviously, the whole story is more complicated (we could lose against Preston and Forest, for example, and still finish ahead) but the factors you reckon don't add up to greater probability for us over Forest, or over Leeds for that matter.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

I think we need 18 points from 9 games - so 2 a game which is promotion form.

Preston, Scunny, Coventry, Derby and Sheff U look winnable if we turn up but as stated above the bottom sides will throw everything at it from now on in.

I thought we'd had it after Norwich but looking at what we have just done - 9 points from Boro, and Ipswich and Barnsley away with several players out we really have given ourselves a chance.

I suspect hardly anyone would have forecast max points from those 3 games.

[Stranded]

Said a while a go we would on a run and get the play-offs in sight and "in our own hands", we would then lose a game unexpectedly and not quite get the momentum back - on the last day we'll still be able to make them if results go our way - they don't.

[Ian Royal]

Said a while a go we would on a run and get the play-offs in sight and "in our own hands", we would then lose a game unexpectedly and not quite get the momentum back - on the last day we'll still be able to make them if results go our way - they don't.

It's the Reading way to give those who like to fly from one extreme to another as many opportunities to do so as possible.

[Mr Angry]

[quote="Mid Sussex Royal"]I think we need 18 points from 9 games - so 2 a game which is promotion form.
[quote]

To be fair to Snowball, he has been saying that for the last 7 games, and, as he has shown on one of the other threads, even if we lose to Pompey in the next game, we would still be on target for 2ppg since the 31st game.

[Arch]

Draw with Portsmouth and beat Preston and we'll be in the top six regardless of what anyone else does meanwhile. That's a promising thought.

[PEARCEY]

Draw with Portsmouth and beat Preston and we'll be in the top six regardless of what anyone else does meanwhile. That's a promising thought.

What if Forest win their next game 7-0 and we only beat Pompey 1-0?

[Ian Royal]

Draw with Portsmouth and beat Preston and we'll be in the top six regardless of what anyone else does meanwhile. That's a promising thought.

What if Forest win their next game 7-0 and we only beat Pompey 1-0?

We'll go above Leeds. Even with 4 points from the two games.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

Draw with Portsmouth and beat Preston and we'll be in the top six regardless of what anyone else does meanwhile. That's a promising thought.

What if Forest win their next game 7-0 and we only beat Pompey 1-0?

UMMMMMMMMMMMMMM we go above Leeds???????

[PEARCEY]

Draw with Portsmouth and beat Preston and we'll be in the top six regardless of what anyone else does meanwhile. That's a promising thought.

What if Forest win their next game 7-0 and we only beat Pompey 1-0?

UMMMMMMMMMMMMMM we go above Leeds???????

Lol. I'll get back to you on that.

[Snowball]

Draw with Portsmouth and beat Preston and we'll be in the top six regardless of what anyone else does meanwhile. That's a promising thought.

What if Forest win their next game 7-0 and we only beat Pompey 1-0?

UMMMMMMMMMMMMMM we go above Leeds???????

ABSOLUTELY CORRECT. If Forest beat Leeds their GD will, at best be 8
and if we get four points our GD will be at least 19 and 61 points

TABLE NOW

5 38 09 6 4 40 31 7 7 5 29 29 +09 61 Leeds United
6 38 10 8 1 30 15 5 7 7 18 20 +13 60 Nottm Forest
7 37 08 7 3 32 19 6 8 5 28 23 +18 57 Reading

So we are guaranteed to make the top six by Tuesday night if we WD or DW or WW versus Pompey and Preston.

We could be there on the Saturday if Leeds win and we beat Pompey, but best result
for us would be a draw for Leeds-Forest and we win both our games

[PEARCEY]

Oh heck. I didn't realise it was Forest v Leeds next. Yep Arch is spot on.

[Mr Angry]

Agreed that the best result for us is a Leeds v Forest 0-0 draw, with a couple of red cards thrown in for good measure as well!!

[Snowball]

FORM TABLE with teams to play bold/underlined

We play 5 of the bottom 6

1 Bristol City 6 5 0 1 2 0 14 6 +8 15 2.50
2 Queens Park Rangers 6 5 0 1 4 1 9 3 +6 15 2.50
3 Reading 6 4 2 0 1 0 15 8 +7 14 2.33
4 Portsmouth 6 4 1 1 5 1 7 2 +5 13 2.17
5 Norwich City 6 3 3 0 1 0 11 6 +5 12 2.00
6 Watford 6 3 2 1 3 0 10 4 +6 11 1.83
7 Swansea City 6 3 1 2 2 1 9 6 +3 10 1.67
8 Hull City 6 3 1 2 3 2 4 4 0 10 1.67
9 Burnley 6 3 1 2 2 2 6 8 -2 10 1.67
10 Millwall 6 2 2 2 3 2 9 6 +3 8 1.33
11 Preston North End 6 2 2 2 1 0 10 8 +2 8 1.33
12 Cardiff City 6 2 2 2 2 2 9 8 +1 8 1.33
13 Leeds United 6 2 2 2 1 3 10 11 -1 8 1.33
14 Derby County 6 2 2 2 2 1 7 8 -1 8 1.33
15 Middlesbrough 6 2 2 2 1 2 7 11 -4 8 1.33
16 Ipswich Town 6 2 1 3 3 3 5 8 -3 7 1.17
17 Barnsley 6 1 3 2 1 3 7 9 -2 6 1.00
17 Doncaster Rovers 6 1 3 2 1 2 7 9 -2 6 1.00
19 Sheffield United 6 2 0 4 1 3 6 9 -3 6 1.00
20 Crystal Palace 6 1 2 3 1 2 7 9 -2 5 0.83
21 Leicester City 6 1 1 4 1 3 6 8 -2 4 0.67
22 Nottingham Forest 6 0 3 3 2 3 4 7 -3 3 0.50
23 Coventry City 6 0 3 3 0 1 6 11 -5 3 0.50
24 Scunthorpe United 6 1 0 5 1 4 2 12 -10 3 0.50

3 points for a win
Points per game, average goal difference then average goals scored applies

[Z175]

FORM TABLE

Now that is some good use of Stats.

Makes me very confident of securing enough for the top 6.

[Stolp]

Yes we will and we'll play Swansea.

[1960]

We always lose to Pompey.

[Mr Angry]

The Daily Mail thinks so; in an article today where they assess the Championship promotion race, they have looked at all the games an come up with:

1st QPR - 95pts
2nd Norwich - 82pts
3rd Swansea - 79pts
4th Reading - 77pts (better GD)
5th Cardiff - 77pts
6th Leeds - 73pts (better GD)
7th Burnley - 73pts
8th Forest - 70pts

Nice semi final against Cardiff to look forward to on that basis then!

[Gordons Cumming]

It has struck me, during this recent good run of form, the complete absence of doommungers Sir Dodger & Thou Voice in the forums.

Now I wonder why that is?

[Svlad Cjelli]

It has struck me, during this recent good run of form, the complete absence of doommungers Sir Dodger & Thou Voice in the forums.

Now I wonder why that is?

Don't worry - as soon as we lose one match they'll reappear.