The Snowball stat thread

[melonhead]

hopefully brum and cardiffs cup runs will distract their players a bit, and cause a fixture pile up at the end of the season which can only help us

[Ian Royal]

In re GD: Also have suffered defeat more than any of the other current top six (and that would attain even if WHU and Brum were to lose their respective games in hand), plus Boro in 8th with one fewer game played, six losses and eleven matches drawn, and a GD of +4

GD is of course well worth monitoring from here to the finish, but with one third of the campaign unfinished, the table's still well capable of telling a few fibs that will be corrected as we go

Unrelated but significant: with three February fixtures rearranged on account of weather and conflicts with opposition cup commitments, Hull City have a brutal March laid out before them (which is not to suggest that they're anything less than fully fit professionals who in all likelihood would be training on the days anyway, but actual competition does pose a wholly different order of demands, and I don't envy them their task in any case)

Re loses, in 2002/03 we had more loses than any team above 9th.
Pompey - L6, GD +52
Leicester - L6, GD +33
Sheff U - L12, GD +20
Reading - L17, GD +15
Wolves - L10, GD +37
Forest - L12, GD +32
Ipswich - L14, GD +16
Norwich - L15, GD +11

According to the GD or Loses we should have finished 7th or 8th.

[Snowball]

Our losses are irrelevant. It's the POINTS that matter.

The manager has publicly said he will always go for the win when it's a draw with 10-15 minutes to go
and one win two defeats still gets as many points as three draws.

It's a POLICY and it's pretty much proven to work, hence 50 points from 25 games.

The game would be very different if it was 2 points for a win and 1 for a draw.



And we should remain aware that four of our defeats were in the first six games
before Gorkss had settled in, and while we are in a terrible mess with full-backs.

[Snowball]

I was just curious

Table the Old-Fashioned Way (two points for a win)

01 31 16-08-07 40 Southampton
02 30 17-06-07 40 West Ham United
03 31 14-11-06 39 Cardiff City
04 31 14-10-07 38 Blackpool
05 31 16-06-09 38 Reading
06 30 14-09-07 37 Birmingham City
07 30 13-11-06 37 Middlesbrough
08 30 15-05-10 35 Hull City
09 31 14-07-10 35 Brighton and Hove A
10 32 14-05-13 33 Burnley
11 31 13-06-12 32 Leeds United
12 31 11-09-11 31 Leicester City

[Snowball]

Saints with

2-0 Burnley
1-1 West Ham
4-0 Derby


are starting to look like they have turned the corner.

If so, they'd be a good bet to finish about West Ham

All we can do is keep getting those two points per game and try to avoid defeat at St Mary's

[Snowball]

After Games Saturday Feb 18th

Cardiff slip up and rop down the form table

Southampton's last three games have stabilised their form

1 25 15-5-05 13 Clean Sheets . . 34F-19A . . GD +15 50 POINTS 2.00 ppg - Reading

2 24 13-5-06 10 Clean Sheets . . 32F-24A . . GD +08 44 POINTS 1.83 ppg - West Ham United

3 25 12-8-05 10 Clean Sheets . . 39F-20A . . GD +19 44 POINTS 1.76 ppg - Birmingham City
4 24 12-5-07 11 Clean Sheets . . 27F-19A . . GD +08 41 POINTS 1.71 ppg - Hull City
5 26 12-8-06 09 Clean Sheets . . 43F-24A . . GD +19 44 POINTS 1.69 ppg - Southampton
6 25 11-8-06 06 Clean Sheets . . 44F-33A . . GD +11 41 POINTS 1.64 ppg - Blackpool

7 26 11-9-06 08 Clean Sheets . . 41F-33A . . GD +08 42 POINTS 1.62 ppg - Cardiff City
8 26 12-5-09 06 Clean Sheets . . 41F-37A . . GD +04 41 POINTS 1.58 ppg - Leeds United
9 27 13-3-11 09 Clean Sheets . . 39F-29A . . GD +10 42 POINTS 1.56 ppg - Burnley

[Snowball]

Reading most clean sheets in the league (joint with Hull)

Clean Sheets

1 14 Hull
1 14 Reading

3 13 Crystal Palace

4 12 Birmingham
4 12 Middlesbrough
4 12 West Ham

7 11 Southampton
8 11 Brighton
9 10 Cardiff

[rfc2001]

I'm not too concerned about the goal difference.

We can argue we have the best defence and when it comes to the crunch games we only need one goal to win. Teams will look at us and mentally feel they would need a couple to win!!

[Snowball]

Was lookig on Statto at defences and spotted this, Birminghams Home record

1 Birmingham City Played 16 Conceded 6 Goals 0.38 Goals per game average 10 Clean Sheets 6 times conceded 1 goal


That is a TIGHT defence

[Snowball]

Statto Web-Sites Predictions

1 82 West Ham
2 79 Southamptn
3 78 Reading
4 77 Cardiff
5 77 Blackpool
6 77 Birmingham

[SydenhamRoyal]

Statto Web-Sites Predictions

1 82 West Ham
2 79 Southamptn
3 78 Reading
4 77 Cardiff
5 77 Blackpool
6 77 Birmingham

I reckon 82 points wont be enough for 3rd never mind champions. And I think Brum are too low. Hate to say it but I think Brum to 2nd, everyone else drop down one.

[Snowball]

Statto Web-Sites Predictions

1 82 West Ham
2 79 Southamptn
3 78 Reading
4 77 Cardiff
5 77 Blackpool
6 77 Birmingham

I reckon 82 points wont be enough for 3rd never mind champions. And I think Brum are too low. Hate to say it but I think Brum to 2nd, everyone else drop down one.

Really hard to say. I think if any team wins the majority of their six-pointers, they'll probably nick it.

That could even be Blackpool who have been getting better and have 7 home ties v the top lot.

Because there are a lot of six-pointers it might be that the champions will have a low points total

82 seems a tad low, but not that much.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

We are now third on season results, thats bloody good going IMHO. ANd will finish top using current form, giessing thats the last 8


http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/runin.html

[Snowball]

We are now third on season results, thats bloody good going IMHO. ANd will finish top using current form, giessing thats the last 8


http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/runin.html

Incredibly good going considering the first 6 games were DWLLLL and we only won 1 game in October

Position
14 Reading 09 03-2-4 11-11 +00 11 Points 1.22 ppg - 30 September
16 Reading 14 04-6-4 15-14 +01 18 Points 1.29 ppg - 30 October
12 Reading 19 07-6-6 23-21 +02 27 Points 1.42 ppg - 30 November
06 Reading 23 10-6-7 30-22 +08 36 Points 1.57 ppg - 30 December
08 Reading 28 13-6-9 35-27 +08 45 Points 1.61 ppg - 31 January
03 Reading 31 16-6-9 39-27 +12 54 Points 1.74 ppg - 18 February

But have to say it again, those first six games really distort how solid we are

2 ppg over 25 games isn't an accident. That's really what side we ARE, as in are now.

And that's a bit more than "current form" that's almost season-form.

Our current form is way way better than that

Here is our last 15

1 Reading 15 11-0-4 23-12 +11 33 Points 2.20 ppg (101 point season)

[Wimb]

Pfffft 101 point season, not good enough

[Snowball]

Pfffft 101 point season, not good enough

Saving our energy for a push for Europe...

[themadstad]

It looks good and if only the first 6 games equaled the same 2 points per game.

[westendgirl]

Just had a look at the Football365 site and their run-in table

We can finish 1st or 24th

However the last columns are projected points season total and recent form and on recent form they make us champions on 87

Points to Play Max High Low Season Form Recent Form
1West Ham United 57 16 105 1 24 87.4 84.2
2Southampton 59 14 101 1 24 84.2 80.0
3Reading 54 15 99 1 24 79.5 87.0
4Birmingham City 51 16 99 1 24 78.2 86.2
5Blackpool 52 15 97 1 24 76.0 83.5
6Hull City 50 16 98 1 24 75.6 70.8
7Middlesbrough 50 16 98 1 24 75.6 67.6
8Cardiff City 53 14 95 1 24 75.4 71.2
9Brighton & Hove Albion 49 15 94 1 24 71.5 80.5
10Leeds United 48 14 90 1 24 69.0 70.4
11Burnley 47 14 89 1 24 66.6 65.2
12Crystal Palace 43 15 88 1 24 62.5 61.0

10 Leeds United 48 14 90 1 24 69.0 70.4
11 Burnley 47 14 89 1 24 66.6 65.2
12 Crystal Palace 43 15 88 1 24 62.5 61.0

[Ian Royal]

That's because we've won almost two and a half points a game in the last 10, that'd smash our points record over a season. Results wise we're on fire at the moment.

[andrew1957]

I see no reason why we should not continue to get 2 points a game - as we have been averaging that for 25 games now.

If so that is 84 points - which is more often than not sufficient for automatic promotion.