Magic Number

[The Cube]

Update after Monday - West Ham, Birmingham, Blackpool, Cardiff all drop 2 points. The magic number for Cardiff is now 0 which means they're off the list.

The magic number for promotion drops to 10 and for the title stays at 15.

The magic numbers for the clubs that could still finish ahead of us are:
Southampton - 15 (notional as it allows for the fact that we're playing them - really it's 16)
West Ham - 10
Birmingham - 4
Blackpool - 1

This is why it is simple - if Reading gain points, all numbers drop by that amount. If the other teams drop points, then their individual number reduces by the number they drop.

[Mr Angry]

Saints - 15
West Ham - 10
Birmingham - 4
Blackpool - 1

No-one else can catch us.

[seahawk10]

Update after Monday - West Ham, Birmingham, Blackpool, Cardiff all drop 2 points. The magic number for Cardiff is now 0 which means they're off the list.

The magic number for promotion drops to 10 and for the title stays at 15.

The magic numbers for the clubs that could still finish ahead of us are:
Southampton - 15 (notional as it allows for the fact that we're playing them - really it's 16)
West Ham - 10
Birmingham - 4
Blackpool - 1

This is why it is simple - if Reading gain points, all numbers drop by that amount. If the other teams drop points, then their individual number reduces by the number they drop.

[robinsfriday]

Push harder cat, our destiny awaits us...

[parky]

How does this fit in with the Rougeometer?

[Ian Royal]

Update after Monday - West Ham, Birmingham, Blackpool, Cardiff all drop 2 points. The magic number for Cardiff is now 0 which means they're off the list.

The magic number for promotion drops to 10 and for the title stays at 15.

The magic numbers for the clubs that could still finish ahead of us are:
Southampton - 15 (notional as it allows for the fact that we're playing them - really it's 16)
West Ham - 10
Birmingham - 4
Blackpool - 1

This is why it is simple - if Reading gain points, all numbers drop by that amount. If the other teams drop points, then their individual number reduces by the number they drop.

So if we were playing Saints tomorrow and beat them it would go to:
Saints - 9
West Ham - 7
Birmingham - 1

[TBM]

Errrrr we have Brighton tomorrow

[Ian Royal]

Errrrr we have Brighton tomorrow

Yes. That's why I said "if we were..."

[TBM]

But why ask that?

It has no relevance

[Ian Royal]

But why ask that?

It has no relevance

Because it seemed a good way to check that I understood how it worked properly and to show that the Saint's figure could come down significantly very quickly in the not too distant future.

[rfcmatt]

This 'Magic Number' makes it so much easier to think through rather than all the "if's". Basically 10 points gained by us or dropped from West Ham and we are up.
Still bricking it.

[TBM]

Thing is I can't see us winning any of our remaining away games so the 10pts best come down via West Hams failure

Bottle jobs - us or them?.………I'm scared

[Mr Angry]

But if we draw those 3 away games, and win our 2 home games, that means we would have the same number of points that West Ham can get if they win all of their last 4 games, and I can't see them doing that.

However, when we play Brum, they will be safely in the play-offs and our game will be their 60th match of the season; I can well imagine Hughton resting a number of players as a result.

[The Real Sandhurst Royal]

Mr Angry Wrote: However, when we play Brum, they will be safely in the play-offs and our game will be their 60th match of the season; I can well imagine Hughton resting a number of players as a result.

I can't see Brum putting out a weakened side against us as this will be disrespectful.

That said, no Davies, Burke and King would be nice!!

[Avon Royal]

I can't see Brum putting out a weakened side against us as this will be disrespectful.

Yeah, they're not Portsmouth......

[Spirit of Elm Park]

I remember this being done in 06....It was the must watch thread at the time as we were all wondering how early in march/april we would be promoted.

That is all

[Silver Fox]

RoyalChicagoFC attempted to introduce the concept of magic number to the board a few years ago.

*cough*

Nice work Cube, epic work aswell by people making it clear they don't understand basic math

[Maguire]

Common sense >>> trying to Americanise football

[Silver Fox]

There's nothing common about common sense, as proved regularly on here

[Stranded]

But if we draw those 3 away games, and win our 2 home games, that means we would have the same number of points that West Ham can get if they win all of their last 4 games, and I can't see them doing that.

However, when we play Brum, they will be safely in the play-offs and our game will be their 60th match of the season; I can well imagine Hughton resting a number of players as a result.

That's a big assumption, if I were in Brum's shoes and we aren't assured of the top 2, I'd be in the mood to put one over us and knock us back in to the playoffs with them and all the psychological damage that would do.