Magic Number

[Platypuss]

But if we draw those 3 away games, and win our 2 home games, that means we would have the same number of points that West Ham can get if they win all of their last 4 games, and I can't see them doing that.

However, when we play Brum, they will be safely in the play-offs and our game will be their 60th match of the season; I can well imagine Hughton resting a number of players as a result.

That's a big assumption, if I were in Brum's shoes and we aren't assured of the top 2, I'd be in the mood to put one over us and knock us back in to the playoffs with them and all the psychological damage that would do.

Not convinced. At that stage when you're sure of the play offs it's all about keeping your players fit and available. That's what will be in the players minds too.

[The Cube]

Update after win at Brighton - three points for Reading, so subtract three from all previous numbers. That removes Blackpool from the list.

The magic numbers for the clubs that could still finish ahead of us are:
Southampton - 12 (notional as it allows for the fact that we're playing them - really it's 13)
West Ham - 7
Birmingham - 1

Fortunately I don't have to listen to any more games on the radio this season...

[Ian Royal]

Saints - 15
West Ham - 10
Birmingham - 4
Blackpool - 1

No-one else can catch us.

Saints - 12
West Ham - 7
Brum - 1

Woop woop.

Unless I've cocked this up.

[West Stand Man]

So, beat Saints and Forest, rely on Brighton to get a draw against the Hammers, and we are up?

[Avon Royal]

So, beat Saints and Forest, rely on Brighton to get a draw against the Hammers, and we are up?

Yep!

[Mid Sussex Royal]

I really cannot believe this run - we lose at Peterboro and it looks ominous with the run in and then 12 points from three play off teams and Leeds.

[SydenhamRoyal]

I really cannot believe this run - we lose at Peterboro and it looks ominous with the run in and then 12 points from three play off teams and Leeds.

The games we havent won in the last 15 are the games with the lowest crowds - not much mroe than half the size of everywhere else.Big crowds, big games, big performances

[Snowball]

Update after win at Brighton - three points for Reading, so subtract three from all previous numbers. That removes Blackpool from the list.

The magic numbers for the clubs that could still finish ahead of us are:
Southampton - 12 (notional as it allows for the fact that we're playing them - really it's 13)
...

It's going to be hard to get 13 points from 4 games.

[Ian Royal]

Update after win at Brighton - three points for Reading, so subtract three from all previous numbers. That removes Blackpool from the list.

The magic numbers for the clubs that could still finish ahead of us are:
Southampton - 12 (notional as it allows for the fact that we're playing them - really it's 13)
...

It's going to be hard to get 13 points from 4 games.

By Saturday the magic number could well be down to 7 with three to play and us 3 points clear. So it's a good job we don't need to.

[Mr Angry]

Update after win at Brighton - three points for Reading, so subtract three from all previous numbers. That removes Blackpool from the list.

The magic numbers for the clubs that could still finish ahead of us are:
Southampton - 12 (notional as it allows for the fact that we're playing them - really it's 13)
...

It's going to be hard to get 13 points from 4 games.

We don't need 13 points; we need 7.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Just to clarify the meaning of this...

The magic numbers for the clubs that could still finish ahead of us are:

Southampton - 12 (notional as it allows for the fact that we're playing them - really it's 13)...

Folks --it's 13 points in any feasible combination of:

--points won by Reading; and

--points dropped by Southampton

So in fact we're not embarked upon on a fool's errand here, seeking to win 13 points from our 4 remaining matches --we're seeking a mix of 13 points won from our own four and dropped by Southampton in their four

Indeed, if Friday's match were to end in a draw, then the number would stand at 10 (again, that's R points to be won + S points to be dropped) with 3 left to play for both

And it's 13 instead of 12 because they've got us on GD (and it's likely to remain thus no matter what, so we should just assume a need to finish clear of them)

The fact that we play them between now and the end complicates the calculus --but after full-time on Friday, all of the scenarios will come into significantly sharper focus and remain so; when WHU* and Brighton finish their business on Saturday, it'll be clearer still


*Speaking of whom, I've crunched out their numbers vis-à-vis the current top two --grim stuff, and what passes for our worries these days has to look like sheer luxury to them

[Mr Angry]

Just to clarify the meaning of this...

The magic numbers for the clubs that could still finish ahead of us are:

Southampton - 12 (notional as it allows for the fact that we're playing them - really it's 13)...

Folks --it's 13 points in any feasible combination of:

--points won by Reading; and

--points dropped by Southampton

So in fact we're not embarked upon on a fool's errand here, seeking to win 13 points from our 4 remaining matches --we're seeking a mix of 13 points won from our own four and dropped by Southampton in their four

Nicely put mate - seems that Snowball can't grasp the concept of the magic number!

[Arch]

Update after win at Brighton - three points for Reading, so subtract three from all previous numbers. That removes Blackpool from the list.

The magic numbers for the clubs that could still finish ahead of us are:
Southampton - 12 (notional as it allows for the fact that we're playing them - really it's 13)
...

It's going to be hard to get 13 points from 4 games.

From someone who has successfully defended the concept of the "six-pointer", that's an exceptionally dim-witted post.

Btw, Cubers, RC correctly points out that it really is 13. There's no combination of points won by us and lost by Soton adding up to twelve which guarantees that we end ahead of them. That we play them is not really relevant, although it rules out a couple of combinations. GD is also a bit of a red herring. The question is what assures coming out on top regardless of goals scored.

[Bandini]

Common sense >>> trying to Americanise football

The 's' in "Americanise" is a thing of beauty.

*tips hat*

[Arch]

Common sense >>> trying to Americanise football

Does common sense dictate something different from the magic number?

[The Cube]

Update after win at Brighton - three points for Reading, so subtract three from all previous numbers. That removes Blackpool from the list.

The magic numbers for the clubs that could still finish ahead of us are:
Southampton - 12 (notional as it allows for the fact that we're playing them - really it's 13)
...

It's going to be hard to get 13 points from 4 games.

From someone who has successfully defended the concept of the "six-pointer", that's an exceptionally dim-witted post.

Btw, Cubers, RC correctly points out that it really is 13. There's no combination of points won by us and lost by Soton adding up to twelve which guarantees that we end ahead of them. That we play them is not really relevant, although it rules out a couple of combinations. GD is also a bit of a red herring. The question is what assures coming out on top regardless of goals scored.

The reason why I introduced the idea of the notional 12, making allowance for a game between the two teams, was so that it was clear that it was in our own hands. If we weren't playing Southampton again this season, then the magic number for the title would be a clear 13, sending out the message that we have to rely on others failing.

Subsequently I regretted that variation but it's too late now.

[Silver Fox]

This seems as good a place as any to point out that we have secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs if necessary

[Mr Angry]

This seems as good a place as any to point out that we have secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs if necessary

Keep Americanisation out of Soccer!!!

[West Stand Man]

I suppose that was also intended to be a tongue in cheek (about the use od the word Soccer)?

What is oft forgotten is that Soccer is actually an English word not an Americanisation.

I rest my case!

[RoyalChicagoFC]

We never had one to answer --but good lawyering there all the same; way to go!/high five, etc

You done right, Cubester --fully three sets of scenarios currently lie in front of us owing the the fact that we go heads-up against Saints, and two of them get wiped from the sl8 come Friday after 90 minutes (plus time added on for second-half stoppages and of course the obligatory and by now maddeningly familiar "Royal minute"); getting our numbers sorted, set and squared with objective reality once and for all is reason enough for me to be slobbering in anticip8ion

Still won't be possible to clinch nuttin' ('cept third at worst) before Tuesday the soonest, and that'd be only with a win or draw on Friday and/or WHU dropping points on Saturday; Palace at home on Saturday week looms huge (er well what doesn't these days)

In any case, West Ham's margin is verrrrrrry slim --6 points back with 4 games left really doesn't do justice to their plight