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[RobRoyal]

Half time/full time markets are priced at about 250%. There is no way that 28-1 reflects the 'real' chance of that event happening. Not a comment about the actual outcome. I don't bet on sporting events but would defo NOT be betting on those markets.

You're always taught probability based on 'games of chance' ie. all events are known. This is not the case with football (ball gets deflected by a beach ball and the goal is allowed to stand etc)

I misunderstood you - apologies

[creative_username_1]

Half time/full time markets are priced at about 250%. There is no way that 28-1 reflects the 'real' chance of that event happening. Not a comment about the actual outcome. I don't bet on sporting events but would defo NOT be betting on those markets.

You're always taught probability based on 'games of chance' ie. all events are known. This is not the case with football (ball gets deflected by a beach ball and the goal is allowed to stand etc)

I misunderstood you - apologies

Lols tbf i just felt like being a bit of an arsehole

[Tony Le Mesmer]

Half time/full time markets are priced at about 250%. There is no way that 28-1 reflects the 'real' chance of that event happening. Not a comment about the actual outcome. I don't bet on sporting events but would defo NOT be betting on those markets.

You're always taught probability based on 'games of chance' ie. all events are known. This is not the case with football (ball gets deflected by a beach ball and the goal is allowed to stand etc)

I misunderstood you - apologies

Lols tbf i just felt like being a bit of an arsehole

Thats still a rediculous comment CU. How overound a market it is irrelavant. 28/1 is 28/1. If all the other outcomes were 1/3 theyd be betting to more than 250% but it wouldnt make the selection any more or less value. Reading stack leads, Man Utd turn games around for fun. 28/1 was wrong IMO and did not factor in each teams strengths/weaknesses.

[Gordons Cumming]

Betting on Reading to lose is an effective way to beat those losing blues. ( excuse the pun )

[Tony Le Mesmer]

And to best prices, you will find the HT/FT market actually bets to about 115% generally

[creative_username_1]

Thats still a rediculous comment CU. How overound a market it is irrelavant. 28/1 is 28/1. If all the other outcomes were 1/3 theyd be betting to more than 250% but it wouldnt make the selection any more or less value. Reading stack leads, Man Utd turn games around for fun. 28/1 was wrong IMO and did not factor in each teams strengths/weaknesses.

Actually you're right about it being 115% just checked tomorrows game. Don't bet on sports so thought it was a lot more (must have been thinking of other combo bets). Even so you have to consistently be 15% than a bookmaker just to break even. The odds they offer almost certainly fall into the 95% level when tested so they pretty accurately reflect probability of that particular outcome. The rest is all subjective and i refuse to be drawn into that argument.

Any bet you make, post it on here and i'll randomly select something and we can compare results. We can even bet on the outcome

[The Prisoner]

Half time/full time markets are priced at about 250%. There is no way that 28-1 reflects the 'real' chance of that event happening. Not a comment about the actual outcome. I don't bet on sporting events but would defo NOT be betting on those markets.

You're always taught probability based on 'games of chance' ie. all events are known. This is not the case with football (ball gets deflected by a beach ball and the goal is allowed to stand etc)

Of course you cannot account for the beach ball or an "out of the skin" performance (or the inverse for that matter), but the chances of our team paying out on the ht-ft market are stronger than most given past performance, stats & therefore probability. As someone who makes a living in this field surely you would place a strategic spread of likely outcomes - for example I backed 5 score lines last season for each game - with average odds of 15-1 I got paid out something like 80pc of the time (one occasion was 30 plus when we went down 1-0 to Stevenage). Even if you didn't place more than one bet reading HT - opponent FT only has to come up twice per season to make a profit at 28-1, whilst the bet of us to score first and lose (always at least 8-1) always has good value when we can't hold onto a dog lead, let alone one in a football match.

[creative_username_1]

I'm pretty much convinced that trading is just guesswork. Any trading on football is pure guesswork. Better teams
will usually have better results over the long term but during a game so much is down to luck

If i get time i'll build a little web app that takes our selections pulls the prices in and tracks results.

[Scutterbucketz]

Any pcunt who Judas bets doesnt deserve to live,

[Pepe the Horseman]

Any pcunt who Judas bets doesnt deserve to live,

Come off it. I'd rather Reading win than win the bet, but if they lose and I make money out of it, it softens the blow.

[Ian Royal]

In line with the OP, but on a different tack - whats the least amount of money I will have to pay someone to take my season ticket off me, Y23

I'll take it for £100

[Silver Fox]

Any pcunt who Judas bets doesnt deserve to live,

Word. Worse than nazis, rapists and AIDS

[creative_username_1]

Any pcunt who Judas bets doesnt deserve to live,

is this a term used for that kind of betting? Just googled Judas bets and this phrase is 4th in the result

[Reading4eva]

Sunderland win trading at a ridiculously long 2.06 on Betfair right now. For the uninitiated that means doubling your money.

The only bright spot in this turd of a season is making some serious money out of our plight...we are usually at least 14-1 to score first and lose.....kerching!!!!

The best Reading related bet was the Arse being out to 940-1 on BF in live play when they were 4-0 down to us........hmmmmn.....

Fill your boots people.

14/1 to score first and win... hmmmm could put a tenner on it. But hang on they are sh*te too so we'll obviously lose by a single goal.

Now when are we playing Man City for that bet

[Colin Cheeselog]

I've bet £10 - £20 on the opposition to win every game so far this season. It's been quite productive.

Only £10 on Sunderland at evans for tomorrow as i fancy a draw.

[creative_username_1]

I've bet £10 - £20 on the opposition to win every game so far this season. It's been quite productive.

Only £10 on Sunderland at evans for tomorrow as i fancy a draw.

Are you sure? you'd be 70-140 down on lost stakes and i'd imagine a fair few of the oppositions wins being highly odds on

I haven't checked and have no reason to doubt you

[victormeldrewsbro.]

I am probably going to lump some cash on us going down TBH. What's the best I can get?

Better to back us to finish bottom 13/8 Bet365 & Coral.

[Stuka]

Just stuck a tenner on Sunderland at 2.06 (profit of £10.60 if they win)

[The Prisoner]

Just stuck a tenner on Sunderland at 2.06 (profit of £10.60 if they win)

I've gone Sunderland/Arsenal/Norwich on a £10 acca....pays best part of £60

Bet Butler on Talksport today recommended backing the draw as they don't think Sunderland without Fletcher pose a goal threat.

As usual the only winner will be the bookies!