*RELEGATION WATCH*

[Armadillo Roadkill]

I'd say on yesterday's performance and our performances against Leeds and Wigan we're quite capable of finishing the season with no more points than we have now.

How's that going?

Well, obviously, OK. We got a draw and a point which I'm naturally very happy about. We have one more point. I hope we get more.

[Snowball]

Well that's alright then, because we all know you're history of predicting results is excellent.

I've not done bad. Made some nice money on Shane Long making top three goal scorers

How about you? Got a good deal on a radio?

[Snowball]

Millwall LOST
Rotherham LOST
Reading F*CK OFF

Nice cover - just in case we got an equaliser.

Floyd can complain either way.

He can now complain because we equalised

[Angry Shed Sex]

That was sort of my point.

[Nameless]

I'd say on yesterday's performance and our performances against Leeds and Wigan we're quite capable of finishing the season with no more points than we have now.

On the other hand based on performances away at Derby, wolves and Ipswich we could end up with 20-30 points more than we have now.
I suspect it will be some where in between, but the relegation worriers need to check carefully this morning when they leave home as there is a chance they might get hit by a falling meteorite.

[multisync1830]

won't go down. mind you I said that last time too

[The Real Sandhurst Royal]

Our last four games are a worry..

AFC Bournemouth - Home

Rotherham - Away

Brentford - Home

Derby - Away

W will need 50 points on the board before these four fixtures to be safe.

[Pepe the Horseman]

I don't think we'll go down now. Reckon wigan will pull off the great escape and Rotherham will go down.

[leon]

Our last four games are a worry..

AFC Bournemouth - Home

Rotherham - Away

Brentford - Home

Derby - Away

W will need 50 points on the board before these four fixtures to be safe.

45 will do it

[Stranded]

I'm not sure if it's happened (but must have done) but when was the last time a club got relegated having had a 10 point cushion to the bottom 3 with 11 games to go?

[Mr Angry]

Until its mathematically certain that we are safe, then there is always a chance of relegation, but I would personally suggest it is hugely improbable.

Wins against Rotherham and Blackpool alone would put us up to 47; that would leave Millwall needing to suddenly hit play off form to overtake us.

Unlikely; therefore I'd keep the paraquat and razor blades locked up for the time being.

As soon as the season ends we can lick our wounds, re-group, re-build as best we can and look forward to next season.

[LUX]

must admit I'm still concerned.

If Wigan win tonight I'll sob.

[Snowball]

I'm not sure if it's happened (but must have done) but when was the last time a club got relegated having had a 10 point cushion to the bottom 3 with 11 games to go?

Of course it COULD happen to RFC but frankly I'd be amazed now.

Our home form still sucks but away we are top-end, even with the Huddersfield defeat

W 2-1 Cardiff
D 0-0 Millwall
W 2-1 Wolves (who are absolutely FLYING!)
W 2-1 Derby
W 1-0 Ipswich
L 0-3 Huddersfield (Six players rested)
D 1-1 Bolton (Good manager, very decent home form)

I'm aware there are cup games in there but CLEARLY SC knows how not to get beat away and with 5 away games left, we ought to expect at least 5 points. Hard to see us getting much from Derby or Watford away, but then I expected us to lose at Ipswich, Derby, Wolves, Cardiff)

Away to Rotherham may be a monster game. Almost certainly they will need to beat us.

If we do get 5 points away, (or just wins at Blackpool and Rotherham) then we will need probably no more than 3-4 at home,

Brighton
Birmingham
Cardiff
Blackburn
Bournemouth
Brentford

Strange 5Bs and a C. We could be safe after the first three of those

[Rollerbob]

Well, lets look at what we can expect from the remaining games.

Brighton (H) - Tricky(ish)
Watford (A) - No expectations
Birmingham (H) - Tricky(ish)
Charlton (A) - Tricky
Cardiff (H) - Tricky
Blackpool (A) - Expectations
Blackburn (H) - Tricky
Bournemouth (H) - No expectations
Rotherham (A) - Expectations
Brentford (H) - Tricky
Derby (A) - No expectations

So if we win the games we really should (that's just 2 wins), and lose all the rest (gulp), we'll finish on 47 points. Possibly not enough.
If we put in a cheeky win against a tricky(ish) opponent (so upped to 3 wins) we'll finish on 50 points. Probably enough.
Put in a couple of draws against tricky opponents (3 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses) - 52 points. Should be enough.

11 points in from the last 11 games.

In our previous 11 games we've gained 17 points, so 11 points is totally realistic, OMG WE ARE STAYING UP!!

[Maguire]

Brighton, Birmingham, Blackburn, Brentford at Home aren't "tricky" games, they're bog standard Championship matches

[Rollerbob]

Brighton, Birmingham, Blackburn, Brentford at Home aren't "tricky" games, they're bog standard Championship matches

.. have you seen us recently? We aren't very good. They certainly are tricky games for Reading.

[Rea Ding]

Brighton, Birmingham, Blackburn, Brentford at Home aren't "tricky" games, they're bog standard Championship matches

I'd still expect a result against Brighton and Brum even on our form
wins at blackpool and rotherham, maybe get something from charlton

[Nameless]

Not sure where the idea that either Wigan or Millwall will suddenly find some form comes from.....

Even if they do we don't need to do much to stay ahead of them.

But obviously strange things happen in football.

Division 1 team playing in Europe ?

[Nomad_Royal]

Season Clubs
2004–05 Gillingham (50), Nottingham Forest (44), Rotherham United (29)
2005–06 Crewe Alexandra (42), Millwall (40), Brighton & Hove Albion (38)
2006–07 Southend United (42), Luton Town (40), Leeds United (36)
2007–08 Leicester City (52), Scunthorpe United (46), Colchester United (38)
2008–09 Norwich City (46), Southampton (45), Charlton Athletic (39)
2009–10 Sheffield Wednesday (47), Plymouth Argyle (41), Peterborough United (34)
2010–11 Preston North End (42), Scunthorpe United (42), Sheffield United (42)
2011–12 Portsmouth (40), Coventry City (40), Doncaster Rovers (36)
2012–13 Peterborough United (54), Wolverhampton Wanderers (51), Bristol City (41)
2013–14 Doncaster Rovers (44), Barnsley (39), Yeovil Town (37)

According to WIKI ( yes I know!) these are the points of the clubs relegated from the Championship to league 1 over the last 10 years http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_L ... ampionship

Given how poorly the bottom 3 are doing currently I'd be surprised if we need over 50 points to avoid relegation as some have suggested on here. Although I agree 2012/13 is an interesting season to look at.

[Sutekh]

So on that basis the average points for the club finishing 22nd over the last 10 seasons is approx. 46

Therefore another 2 wins or 6 draws should be enough and, hopefully, considerably more than enough given the apparent crapness of the bottom three.