BR0B0THoundBR0B0T do you remember a couple of pages ago when
we worked out how bookmakers calcul8 odds.
do you remember?
Was that all that horrible spreadsheet stuff that took no account of form/home advantage etc, and didn't fit onto the web page properly? I did try to forget that, yes. Is it really that stats driven?
spreadsheet was knocked together in 5 mins before the first game
and was primarily looking at qualification. It was pretty accurate.
How else are you going to come up with a 'number' for the odds?
You're trying to assess the 'strength' of two teams in a probabilistic
manner. The hypothesis being that the 'stronger' team will win more
often.
A fairly good predictor is goals expectancy. Feel free to go and back
test it over the last 20 years or so
Mate none of us care enough because we're not autistprogrammers