Relegation Watch

[John Smith]

But my main reason for such predictions is we are showing very little fight, seem to be getting worse, crowds lower and more miserable.

I think if we lose to Leeds we will finish bottom

I totally disagree. Derby was very good and Bolton whilst not brilliant was 'fine'. Not great, granted but we got a point and the teams below lost so we made ground. We are moving in the right direction.

Who's to say we can't scrape a point at Wolves and capitalise on a packed schedule?

Who's to say we can't get something at Norwich when they are mid table mediocrity?

Guess you didn't go to the Bolton game?

It was far from fine. It was dreadful and with a little luck Bolton would have taken all the points.

Got to agree with Snowball and with our woeful defence we could easily ship 5 or 6

I did go to the Bolton game. The result was fine, I wasn't referring to the performance which was doggers, agreed.

My point though remains - the teams below us are woeful. Which was displayed in that very game by Bolton.

[Stranded]

But my main reason for such predictions is we are showing very little fight, seem to be getting worse, crowds lower and more miserable.

I think if we lose to Leeds we will finish bottom

I totally disagree. Derby was very good and Bolton whilst not brilliant was 'fine'. Not great, granted but we got a point and the teams below lost so we made ground. We are moving in the right direction.

Who's to say we can't scrape a point at Wolves and capitalise on a packed schedule?

Who's to say we can't get something at Norwich when they are mid table mediocrity?

Guess you didn't go to the Bolton game?

It was far from fine. It was dreadful and with a little luck Bolton would have taken all the points.

Got to agree with Snowball and with our woeful defence we could easily ship 5 or 6

Just looking at it, there are actually 9 teams with a worse defensive record than us (every one from 15th down have conceded more) and Leeds have conceded the same number.

So it actually looks like our defense is woeful others must be catastrophic.

We've actually scored more than 8 other clubs too. Lends to a picture that we are actually a lower mid-table side and if we can move back to "mean" over the last 11 games, we will be more than fine.

[bcubed]

I totally disagree. Derby was very good and Bolton whilst not brilliant was 'fine'. Not great, granted but we got a point and the teams below lost so we made ground. We are moving in the right direction.

Who's to say we can't scrape a point at Wolves and capitalise on a packed schedule?

Who's to say we can't get something at Norwich when they are mid table mediocrity?

Guess you didn't go to the Bolton game?

It was far from fine. It was dreadful and with a little luck Bolton would have taken all the points.

Got to agree with Snowball and with our woeful defence we could easily ship 5 or 6

Just looking at it, there are actually 9 teams with a worse defensive record than us (every one from 15th down have conceded more) and Leeds have conceded the same number.

So it actually looks like our defense is woeful others must be catastrophic.

We've actually scored more than 8 other clubs too. Lends to a picture that we are actually a lower mid-table side and if we can move back to "mean" over the last 11 games, we will be more than fine.

Maybe, but there's absolutely no indication from the performances I've seen that we can get back to mean

[John Smith]

Maybe, but there's absolutely no indication from the performances I've seen that we can get back to mean

If you were manager, which 3 players would you get rid of tomorrow?

[Stranded]

Guess you didn't go to the Bolton game?

It was far from fine. It was dreadful and with a little luck Bolton would have taken all the points.

Got to agree with Snowball and with our woeful defence we could easily ship 5 or 6

Just looking at it, there are actually 9 teams with a worse defensive record than us (every one from 15th down have conceded more) and Leeds have conceded the same number.

So it actually looks like our defense is woeful others must be catastrophic.

We've actually scored more than 8 other clubs too. Lends to a picture that we are actually a lower mid-table side and if we can move back to "mean" over the last 11 games, we will be more than fine.

Maybe, but there's absolutely no indication from the performances I've seen that we can get back to mean

Maybe not. But even at our worst there are still sides performing worse in all aspects. That may change but as you cannot see how we can head back toward mean, I can't see 4 clubs significantly improving theirs.

[Denver Royal]

11/1 to be relegated (SKY BET)

Although I think we will avoid going down, 11/1 is a very good bet.

100/1 to finish bottom

I think, if we do fall into the bottom three, bottom is very possible

250/1 to finish top half

Cough!

Top half isn't that bad a bet, really. If you follow the betting logic being cited by some in here, at some point a price will look attractive. So, 100 quid down would net you 25 grand. Or put a grand down, to win a quarter mil. Hmmm...

[CountryRoyal]

250/1 to finish top half

Cough!

So, 100 quid down would net you 25 grand. Or put a grand down, to win a quarter mil. Hmmm...

Thank you for elaborating what 250/1 means. Very insightful.

[Hound]

Its very difficult to predict what will happen really. The teams at the top might well clam up or be complacent when we play them - and we actually played well against Wolves, Cardiff and Villa earlier in the season. Our two best results of the season have been away at big clubs with big crowds who were on a decent run at the time.

I'd expect each of the teams at the bottom may well spring a 'surprise' result or two - it might be because when we play Cardiff they are already up/already in the POs and resting players, Villa might bottle it etc. Likewise Ipswich, Preston and Norwich might be out of the POs altogether and lacking motivation

What I do know is we are in trouble, as we are only 5 points clear. However we are in a better situation than all the teams below us, so are less likely to drop

[bcubed]

Maybe, but there's absolutely no indication from the performances I've seen that we can get back to mean

If you were manager, which 3 players would you get rid of tomorrow?

More like which three would you keep?

[CountryRoyal]

Maybe, but there's absolutely no indication from the performances I've seen that we can get back to mean

If you were manager, which 3 players would you get rid of tomorrow?

More like which three would you keep?

Moore, Kelly, Barrow.

[Pepe the Horseman]

250/1 to finish top half

Cough!

So, 100 quid down would net you 25 grand. Or put a grand down, to win a quarter mil. Hmmm...

Thank you for elaborating what 250/1 means. Very insightful.

Basically means if you put a tenner on, you'll lose a tenner.

[mumbo-jumbo]

So, 100 quid down would net you 25 grand. Or put a grand down, to win a quarter mil. Hmmm...

Thank you for elaborating what 250/1 means. Very insightful.

Basically means if you put a tenner on, you'll lose a tenner.

[Denver Royal]

I'm starting to get pissed on behalf of the teams below us. Like here we are practically begging to get relegated and there are still 6 teams that are so utterly shite that they haven't been able to pass our points tally in 2 months

Why are you pissed? I hope they all keep losing. But then, I've always wanted teams around us to do bad. Always have and always will.

[Snowflake Royal]

Time for the meager amount of positivity there is to muster.

Survival magic number: 25 points (30 available)
Any combination of us gaining and the bottom three dropping points to get to this total over the remaining games sees us safe. Sunderland would have to get more than a point a game to even catch our current points total now, and that would take a dramatic up turn on form. Birmingham appear to be going only one way, and it's not to catching us. That leaves Burton, they've some fight, but lack a lot of quality. Their recent form is good (by the rest of the bottom six standards anyway! ), but even if they keep it up, we only need another 5 points to go beyond where it'd get them.

Sunderland
Max points: 55
Remaining games: 9
Season form: 0.76 ppg
Last ten: 0.60 ppg
Last six: 0.33 ppg

Burton Albion
Max points: 60
Remaining games: 10
Season form: 0.83 ppg
Last ten: 0.60 ppg
Last six: 1.00 ppg

Birmingham
Max points: 57
Remaining games: 9
Season form: 0.81 ppg
Last ten: 0.70 ppg
Last six: 0.00 ppg

Barnsley
Max points: 62
Remaining games: 10
Season form: 0.89 ppg
Last 10: 0.60 ppg
Last six: 0.83 ppg

Bolton
Max points: 63
Remaining games: 9
Season form: 0.97 ppg
Last ten: 1.10 ppg
Last six: 1.00 ppg

Reading
Max points: 66
Remaining games: 10
Season form: 1.00 ppg
Last ten: 0.80 ppg
Last six: 0.67 ppg

Hull
Max points: 66
Remaining games: 10
Season form: 1.00 ppg
Last ten: 1.20 ppg
Last six: 1.67 ppg

[Mid Sussex Royal]

I think 45 points will be enough; I think Hull will pull clear now, yesterday's result will have given them impetus and have the quality to do so, Bolton will probably be ok, they are difficult to play against and will pick up enough points against sides with nothing to play for.

The chances of 2 of the other 4 putting on a run getting past 45 points given their current form, and who they have to play, looks remote.

The 4 home games are key and is really where we need to pick up most of the 9 points from, Sunderland has to be won and a win and 2 draws against Preston, Ipswich and QPR has to be the target.

The Ipswich game could be vital - they will have nothing to play for and we really don't want to go to Cardiff needing anything, although all the bottom teams have a tough game to end with.

I think Colin getting promotion and relegating us would make a worse summer than last year....

[John Smith]

I think this weekend was the pivotal one. The three teams that will go down are those occupying the spaces now.

Even if Monk's arrival gets Birmingham out*, it won't be at our expense, it would be Barnsley.



* he won't because he's a massive, massive fraud

[genome]

According to stats, we have a 9% chance of relegation

[Stranded]

Sounds about right.

[10539.4 Miles Away]

According to stats, we have a 9% chance of relegation

Interesting graphic. Looks like the playoffs are pretty locked up although I am surprised to see such a high percentage for Derby based on their recent form (P7 L2 D5). Can't be arsed to check who they and the others have left to play which would probably explain it.

[John Smith]

This is based on goals, remember. What I will say is Birmingham can't hit a barn door but Sunderland, for how bad they are, seem to score most games.

Both will definitely go down though. To my pleasure. Anyone who witnessed Birmingham overzealously celebrating promotion in the South Stand that day will feel the same. They can take their League Cup with them and oxf*rd right off as far as I'm concerned. Sunderland too with their 'massive fanbase'...that are nowhere to be seen.