Opposition fans back from the game - 24/25 page 225 onwards

[Only one Trevor Morley]

We're already reaching the point where predictions of falling away are inaccurate simply because of points on the board.

If we go at 1.4 points per game for the remainder of the season, solid mid table form, we'd end on 75 points, which is typically a play-off spot. So we'd need lower table form to miss out, and we're clearly better than that.

The longer this start goes on, the more important it becomes. And I'm expected a minimum of 6 points from our next 3, if not 9.

It is for these reasons the 11-10 being offered by skybet to finish top 6 is outstanding value. The bookies are saying it’s still more likely that we will finish 7th or below than top 6. But we just need around 51 points from 38 games to get 73 points which is average to get in play offs. So in our remaining games that is equivalent of W 13 D 12 L 13.... other bookies are saying around 4-6 and that I feel still underestimates chances but 11/10 is one for the rent money....

[toppy]

https://www.otib.co.uk/index.php?/topic/209401-reading/

Brizzle have joined the chat. Tbf those angry pirates have always hated us.

I read those comments. Most seemed to be saying 'fair play'

[Franchise FC]

so humour me here, are 'expected goals' supposed to predict the amounts of goals you are going to score before the game has even kicked off?

No, it simply shows how shit your strikers were if you don't hit the predicted amount - and how efficient your strikers were if they exceed it

Absolutely no guide to winning a future game any more than 'team in form keeps winning' does

[Stranded]

so humour me here, are 'expected goals' supposed to predict the amounts of goals you are going to score before the game has even kicked off?

All they show is if your strikers we're perfect in a game then given where each shot was taken from, how many of those should have resulted in a goal. So for example a penalty is "worth" 0.7 goals, as a penalty is scored 70% of the time. So 7 shots where you have just 10% chance of scoring are worth 1 penalty - so in short, it is likely the more shots you have the higher your xG even if all your shots were from distance and frankly non-threatening.

According to here: https://experimental361.com/2020/10/28/ ... -oct-2020/

we were lucky to score even 1 last night where as Blackburn should have definitely scored at least 1 given their chances.

[Silver Fox]

What I love* about xG, and to partly answer Woodley's question is that xG is calculated on things that have happened in the match, so it's not a prediction, it's what would have happened according to some nerd, when by the time it exists an actual game has been played. Absolute nonsense.

As Mr Burns almost said "You don't win a Nobel prize for Expected Science"

[Mr Angry]

and what happened before xg became a thing? did teams not go up? i don't even know how it works, as i've never looked into it. But surely you win games on a football pitch and not an excel spreadsheet

It's the same with "assists"; Giggs has the most "assists" in the Premier League era, but when he retired, I can't recall anyone mentioning this impressive fact, nor indeed, giving a toss about it...... these, and all the other detailed statistics that anoraks like to w*nk over, are another example of the Americanisation of the game, as it can be directly traced back to the Oakland Athletic's "Moneyball" strategy.

An example of where it is bollox; one of the reasons Coutinho was brought by Barcelona from Liverpool for €160 Million was on the basis of his assists - his assists (and goals) in his first half season following his January transfer in 2018 appeared to justify the investment (18 games, 8 goals, 5 assists) which was comparable to the half season he had in 2017/18 for Liverpool (14 games, 7 goals, 6 assists).

However, the following season he was played out of position by Barcelona, and his stats plumetted; 34 games, 5 goals and 2 assists. He then fell out of favour with new management, who farmed him out on loan to Bayern Munich where he played just 4 League games in 2019/20 for a return of 0 goals, and 0 assists (and was the scapegoat for Bayern's terrible start which saw the Manager replaced and the team then go on the unbeaten run which eventually saw them win the Champions League as well as the Bundesliga) and he is now back at Barcelona (because Munich didn't take up their clause to buy him, and because no-one else wanted to pay either the salary Barcelona wanted for him nor his massive salary) where this season he has had 5 League games, 1 goal and 2 assists.

In other words, Barcelona paid €160M for 14 league goals and 9 league assists across 1 full season, 1 half season, and the start of this season and have seen the value of the player collapse.

So much for relying on statistics.

[WestYorksRoyal]

If you replaced Aguero at City with Puscas, would it still show the same xG for chances they get? That clearly shows the fallacy of xG if so. Would you say City's or Spurs' xG figures are unsustainable because Aguero and Kane are outperforming their xG? Obviously not.

I don't see why Joao and Meite can't keep this form up based upon what I've seen, so why can't we continue outperforming xG?

[Franchise FC]

so humour me here, are 'expected goals' supposed to predict the amounts of goals you are going to score before the game has even kicked off?

All they show is if your strikers we're perfect in a game then given where each shot was taken from, how many of those should have resulted in a goal. So for example a penalty is "worth" 0.7 goals, as a penalty is scored 70% of the time. So 7 shots where you have just 10% chance of scoring are worth 1 penalty - so in short, it is likely the more shots you have the higher your xG even if all your shots were from distance and frankly non-threatening.

According to here: https://experimental361.com/2020/10/28/ ... -oct-2020/

we were lucky to score even 1 last night where as Blackburn should have definitely scored at least 1 given their chances.

So we lost after all - I knew it was a dream

[paultheroyal]

Bournemouth

...it's crackers that they are top, I haven't been able to digestive it at all...heard that they are going to sign Gary Baldi in January...but tbh I don't give a Fig Roll what they do...maybe we can be Hob Nobbing around the top of the league with them? That would be Nice and at least if we go up we might avoid playing Lincoln !

So when we went up as Champions in 2014/2015, we had just 8 points after the first 7 games with 3 defeats (Forest/Leeds/Blackburn)

Now we have 13 points from the first 7 games with no defeats, and some on here are writing us off if we lose the game tonight. Totally unbelievable. Get a grip, there are still 39 games to go.

[paultheroyal]

Cardiff

Loving the logic...

If we get to ten games without a sign of weakness from Reading, I reckon they're going up.

I think it's easy to fall into the trap of reading too much into the tables at the moment, because, although we're almost into November, it's effectively just early September as far as a "normal" season is concerned.

[CountryRoyal]

Cardiff

Loving the logic...

If we get to ten games without a sign of weakness from Reading, I reckon they're going up.

I think it's easy to fall into the trap of reading too much into the tables at the moment, because, although we're almost into November, it's effectively just early September as far as a "normal" season is concerned.

More proof that lockdowns negatively affect mental health.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

Cardiff

Loving the logic...

If we get to ten games without a sign of weakness from Reading, I reckon they're going up.

I think it's easy to fall into the trap of reading too much into the tables at the moment, because, although we're almost into November, it's effectively just early September as far as a "normal" season is concerned.

More proof that lockdowns negatively affect mental health.

[Winston Biscuit]

Cardiff

although we're almost into November, it's effectively just early September as far as a "normal" season is concerned.

Although it's Easter, it's effectively just Christmas so your chocolate eggs can do one frankly

[paultheroyal]

Norwich

air play to them - they've certainly come from nowhere! I guess it has been a masterstroke appointing Paunovic as manager.

The only thing I'd say is that they've had decent fixtures so far. I'd argue Watford, Blackburn and Borough are the toughest they've faced.

Has anyone seen any of their games? Are they as good as the table suggests?

5 shots on target and 4 goals. Barely any possession and giving teams chances up the other end.

Either theyre one of the best drilled, disciplined teams with exceptionally clinical frontmen or they're going to slowly fall down the table.

The start they've had will always do wonders for confidence though and that can go a long way.

Apparently before tonight, they were bottom in the league for both shots on goal and xG, despite being top of the table.

As has been said, either they've got some extremely clinical finishers or they've been riding their luck somewhat.

It’s unusual for the early pacesetters to stay the course, but not unheard of. I recall Gillingham being in a similar position in this division a few years back and they slowly but surely fell away.

I've just seen a few of their highlights and a number of their goals seem to be long range strikes that seem to find the back of the net. Who knows if they can keep it up. It looks like they commit numbers forward and play with a clear attacking intent.

[Jagermesiter1871]

Those who invest time and effort into xG are likely virgins. It is a proven fact.

Do you have any stats on that?

[From Despair To Where?]

Cardiff

Loving the logic...

If we get to ten games without a sign of weakness from Reading, I reckon they're going up.

I think it's easy to fall into the trap of reading too much into the tables at the moment, because, although we're almost into November, it's effectively just early September as far as a "normal" season is concerned.

One thing I'm going to read from the table is that after 8 games, we have at least twice as many points as over half the league.

[From Despair To Where?]

Norwich

air play to them - they've certainly come from nowhere! I guess it has been a masterstroke appointing Paunovic as manager.

The only thing I'd say is that they've had decent fixtures so far. I'd argue Watford, Blackburn and Borough are the toughest they've faced.

Has anyone seen any of their games? Are they as good as the table suggests?

5 shots on target and 4 goals. Barely any possession and giving teams chances up the other end.

Either theyre one of the best drilled, disciplined teams with exceptionally clinical frontmen or they're going to slowly fall down the table.

The start they've had will always do wonders for confidence though and that can go a long way.

Apparently before tonight, they were bottom in the league for both shots on goal and xG, despite being top of the table.

As has been said, either they've got some extremely clinical finishers or they've been riding their luck somewhat.

It’s unusual for the early pacesetters to stay the course, but not unheard of. I recall Gillingham being in a similar position in this division a few years back and they slowly but surely fell away.

I've just seen a few of their highlights and a number of their goals seem to be long range strikes that seem to find the back of the net. Who knows if they can keep it up. It looks like they commit numbers forward and play with a clear attacking intent.

Yep, I'd go with best drilled, disciplined team with exceptionally clinical finishers.

[CountryRoyal]

Norwich

air play to them - they've certainly come from nowhere! I guess it has been a masterstroke appointing Paunovic as manager.

The only thing I'd say is that they've had decent fixtures so far. I'd argue Watford, Blackburn and Borough are the toughest they've faced.

Has anyone seen any of their games? Are they as good as the table suggests?

5 shots on target and 4 goals. Barely any possession and giving teams chances up the other end.

Either theyre one of the best drilled, disciplined teams with exceptionally clinical frontmen or they're going to slowly fall down the table.

The start they've had will always do wonders for confidence though and that can go a long way.

Apparently before tonight, they were bottom in the league for both shots on goal and xG, despite being top of the table.

As has been said, either they've got some extremely clinical finishers or they've been riding their luck somewhat.

It’s unusual for the early pacesetters to stay the course, but not unheard of. I recall Gillingham being in a similar position in this division a few years back and they slowly but surely fell away.

I've just seen a few of their highlights and a number of their goals seem to be long range strikes that seem to find the back of the net. Who knows if they can keep it up. It looks like they commit numbers forward and play with a clear attacking intent.

Emphasis on “few” then as I only recall 2 goals from outside the box.

We have the joint highest percentage of shots from inside the box at 63%.

This is why we’re so clinical because unlike Blackburn and other teams we don’t piss about with 30 shots from miles away.

[Mr Angry]

If you go to the dictionary and look up "clinical finish" you will see Joao's goals against Wycombe and Blackburn as the given examples.

That having been said, Armstrong is a top striker as well; his movement and pace over 5 yards to give himself a tiny bit of space on our defenders was excellent. Very impressed by him.

[WoodleyRoyal]

thanks to everyone who has explained XG. I can conclude that it's a load of old tosh then, as I suspected. and also highlights there are a lot of very sad individuals out there with far too much time on their hands.