The Rougeometer - 2024/25 Season Run-In

[The New Rouge]

There were huge issues with post-Brexit funding, as well as a board level feud that exhausted the UK legal system for a few years. But the good news is that after this was settled, the AI programmers were able to work alongside the physical product developers to create The Rougeometer 3.0.

The algorithm now considers 1871 factors, which of course aligns with our year of formation. The modern game has evolved and there are new factors which need to be considered as inputs. These new additions are wide-ranging, from more widely available XG statistics, to softer factors such as 'do the players' wives get on?' - and also includes takeover probability. Camaraderie figures for example, are now taken from a 68:32 blend of goal celebration togetherness as well as social media squad member post interaction.

So in short, IT'S BACK! It's better than ever. Yes, you need some faith to believe the results as we will not reveal the full content of the algorithmic black box, but I urge you not to think 'do I believe?', but to think 'can I afford not to believe?'
Are you prepared to miss the ride?
Or do you want to be first in the queue, take your seat, strap yourself in and be part of the journey?

Where will Reading finish this season?








1st/2nd 0.1%
3rd-6th 28.6%
7th-12th 51.7%
13th-17th 16.7%
18th-21st 2.9%
21st-24th 0.0%

[Mr Angry]

I 100% believe in The Rougeometer - who doesn't??

After the last few Years, I will take an 80% chance of finishing top half, and a nearly 30% chance of finishing in the Play Offs!!

[Crowbar6753]

Its early morning over here in Canada and those bright lights are already messing with my head!! i'm in love it!!

[tidus_mi2]

Did the decline of Reading FC coincide with the death of the original Rougeometer? Must mean we're on our way back.

[Brogue]

End of Season Predictions | 7th March 2025

Using equal weights of season PPG, last 10 PPG and expected points using non-penalty xG data - here are my forecasted league positions with associated probabilities.

[rabidbee]

Nice!

[Hendo]

End of Season Predictions | 7th March 2025

Using equal weights of season PPG, last 10 PPG and expected points using non-penalty xG data - here are my forecasted league positions with associated probabilities.

I think if we'd been offered 8th or 9th at the start of the season, we'd have bitten your hand off.

[Snowflake Royal]

End of Season Predictions | 7th March 2025

Using equal weights of season PPG, last 10 PPG and expected points using non-penalty xG data - here are my forecasted league positions with associated probabilities.

I think if we'd been offered 8th or 9th at the start of the season, we'd have bitten your hand off.

I assume this doesn’t include the possibility of points deductions (same for rougeometer) as there's got to be a non-zero chance of them meaning we could finish 15th or below still.

[The New Rouge]

You are correct. During the R&D phase, The Rougeometer decided to proceed without any inferred probability of points deduction, as whilst we have a clear line of sight on the 1871 factors, we don't have a clear view on this for all 24 clubs.

I applaud Brogue on the creation of his table. We all have to start somewhere and it fondly reminds me of the early 20 factor Rougeometer prototypes.

[Sutekh]

Not good enough! Fold the cl —- oh…

[Mr Angry]

As someone who hangs on the Rougeometer as a drowning man hangs onto a piece of flotsam, how often are we to expect updates??

[Stranded]

End of Season Predictions | 7th March 2025

Using equal weights of season PPG, last 10 PPG and expected points using non-penalty xG data - here are my forecasted league positions with associated probabilities.

I think if we'd been offered 8th or 9th at the start of the season, we'd have bitten your hand off.

I assume this doesn’t include the possibility of points deductions (same for rougeometer) as there's got to be a non-zero chance of them meaning we could finish 15th or below still.

I know this was from a little while back now but bar the suspended penalty for getting the Vale game cancelled, we must be too late in the season for any points deductions to take effect now. A rule would need to be broken, a hearing date found etc etc - which would be a big ask given there are only 6 weeks left of the season.

[Snowflake Royal]

I think if we'd been offered 8th or 9th at the start of the season, we'd have bitten your hand off.

I assume this doesn’t include the possibility of points deductions (same for rougeometer) as there's got to be a non-zero chance of them meaning we could finish 15th or below still.

I know this was from a little while back now but bar the suspended penalty for getting the Vale game cancelled, we must be too late in the season for any points deductions to take effect now. A rule would need to be broken, a hearing date found etc etc - which would be a big ask given there are only 6 weeks left of the season.

What's the Admin cut off date, because that's just automatic isn't it.

I think January Sales saw us solid though.

Isn't there another suspended deduction for late payments?

[Dirk Gently]

I assume this doesn’t include the possibility of points deductions (same for rougeometer) as there's got to be a non-zero chance of them meaning we could finish 15th or below still.

I know this was from a little while back now but bar the suspended penalty for getting the Vale game cancelled, we must be too late in the season for any points deductions to take effect now. A rule would need to be broken, a hearing date found etc etc - which would be a big ask given there are only 6 weeks left of the season.

What's the Admin cut off date, because that's just automatic isn't it.

I think January Sales saw us solid though.

Isn't there another suspended deduction for late payments?

It may have changed, but it always used to be the fourth Thursday in March - same date as the transfer deadline used to be before we had fixed windows. And I think that still is the end-of-season deadline for loan moves.

[LightwaterRoyal]

Is this taking into account remaining fixtures amd the fact that alot of the teams will have to drop pounts against eachother? I'd be surprised if Wycombe got 2nd considering their run in

[BRO_BOT]

There were huge issues with post-Brexit funding, as well as a board level feud that exhausted the UK legal system for a few years. But the good news is that after this was settled, the AI programmers were able to work alongside the physical product developers to create The Rougeometer 3.0.

It's the likes of these nerds for whom I feel sorry. They don't even realise that quantum computing is (way) behind the curve

[BRO_BOT]

They look so happy...it's heartbreaking!