Perspective

[weybridgewanderer]

Derby 10 Mar 2010, Bristol 13 Mar 2010, QPR 16 Mar 2010.

Before that Barnsley 30 Jan 10, Doncaster 6 Feb 10, Plymouth 9 Feb 10.

Before that Blackpool 9, Norwich 13, Birmingham 20 Dec 2008

2009 really was a shockingly poor year.

The next league game after barnsley doncaster plymouth was palace which we also won

So as not be be accused of double standards, this was the last time won 4 league games on the bounce.

the birmingham game in dec 2008 was the end of a 5 league game winning run!

if we win 5 on the bounce I will reconsider my opinion about making the play offs

norwich
sheffield utd
watford
millwall
palace

[Sarah Star]

The next league game after barnsley doncaster plymouth was palace which we also won

So as not be be accused of double standards, this was the last time won 4 league games on the bounce.

the birmingham game in dec 2008 was the end of a 5 league game winning run!

if we win 5 on the bounce I will reconsider my opinion about making the play offs

How about:

Scunthorpe, Leicester, Leeds, Sheffield Utd, Coventry...

and then win against Derby making it a round dozen?

End the season on a real high!

[PEARCEY]

Hello Mrs Starr? Where you been?

[Sarah Star]

Hello Mrs Starr? Where you been?

Here and there... fingers in pies... being productive and stuff... you know how it is.

[Ian Royal]

Derby 10 Mar 2010, Bristol 13 Mar 2010, QPR 16 Mar 2010.

Before that Barnsley 30 Jan 10, Doncaster 6 Feb 10, Plymouth 9 Feb 10.

Before that Blackpool 9, Norwich 13, Birmingham 20 Dec 2008

2009 really was a shockingly poor year.

The next league game after barnsley doncaster plymouth was palace which we also won

that'll teach me to try and sneak in a couple of cheeky posts on the sly at work.

[weybridgewanderer]

We had little right to expect anything from Cardiff, and a home draw v QPR was likely.

What matters is the block of games, and from the 7 games, we needed 11 points.

That hasn't changed. It's just got harder. Now we need ten points from 5 games

A 2-2 Cardiff
H 0-1 QPR

A Norwich
A Sheffield
H Watford
H Millwall
A Palace

So now we HAVE to win those two home games (and hurt two rivals), we have to win at Sheffield or Palace (or maybe both). That would be 13 points from 7 games. If we could do that and get something at Norwich, we'd be on 2+ ppg for this block of games.

I believe if we can avoid defeat at Norwich, we'll get at least 10 points from those 5 games, 11 from 7. Maybe more.

as we did not avoid defeat at norwich, what do you believe the total from the 5 will be? 12(4 wins??)

whats the current trend line for our position, I know it was trending toward 3rd or 4th for a while. Using the same trend methodology you used before I guess we are now trending towards about 18th?

[Wimb]

I don't take any pleasure in Snowball being proved wrong.... ok well I do a little bit but I'd rather he was right and we were trending upwards

I don't think much has changed over the last 3 games to be honest. We're still a side capable of beating 2/3 of the division, still very hard to beat and a side that on their day is capable of getting results from anyone. We were worth our point away at Cardiff, we were worth a point at home to the runaway league leaders and we were then beaten away by the 4th placed team in the division. I don't see those results as being out of character from a top 10 side that's going to challenge for the playoffs. We're probably not going to make it but there's still positives to take away from even these 3 disappointing results.

We're a side still in transition and Brian's been in the job about 12 months. It took SSC the best part of 3 seasons to build a promotion winning side out of a team that already had some stability and success under Pardew and chances are under the business model that we operate it's going to take about the same.

Karacan will learn from this, Simon Church will hopefully go away and become a better player after his recent struggles as will HRK I hope.

It's not always going to be rosey but we're still looking up and not looking down, with reasons to be optimistic next year and the rest of this one.

[Arch]

I don't think much has changed over the last 3 games to be honest.

We've been missing some of our best players.

[Snowball]

I don't think much has changed over the last 3 games to be honest.

We've been missing some of our best players.

We are a very decent side with (when they play and are on form) two top wingers.

We miss L-wood, no question.

But the doom-mongers are so predictable.

The margins are very, very tight. We have just played three top sides, could easily be WDD against those and now perfectly set up for a strong run in.

We just lack that slight edge to beat the top six sides, that's obvious. We had enough chances to beat Norwich in the 3-3, we should have beaten Cardiff
but they got out of jail home and away. In both games against Swansea it could easily have been a draw, and it was just one moment of class did us v QPR.

Yes were were well-beaten at QPR and under a lot of pressure at Norwich, but we were doing enough until the death, and with ten men, no L-wood

Look at this record

P20 W10 D7 L3 40-22 GD18 37 Points from 20 games

That's RFC against all bar the top six teams.

It's now incredibly tough to make the POs. The top six are still doing well and Leicester, Burnley are coming good,
but we really don't need much to be seriously competitive. A top defending, fast attacking left-back, and a VVG
attacking midfielder and we'd have a super side IMO.

We have to win at Sheffield United, for starters, then start winning our home games, basically all of them now. That's 69 points.

One extra away win, 72. It's still possible. But fail to win at Sheffield and all bets are off

[weybridgewanderer]

in just 3 games we have gone from automatic promotion contenders coz we were worth so much more than our position suggested to "it'll be tough" to even make the play offs?

[Mr Angry]

But surely our superior goal difference will be crucial????

Or maybe not.

[leww_rfc]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kp1zrgeRAcs&feature=related

please never post again

[Snowball]

in just 3 games we have gone from automatic promotion contenders coz we were worth so much more than our position suggested to "it'll be tough" to even make the play offs?

Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't we just dropped eight points
and got another one of our best midfielders suspended for three games?

[PEARCEY]

in just 3 games we have gone from automatic promotion contenders coz we were worth so much more than our position suggested to "it'll be tough" to even make the play offs?

Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't we just dropped eight points
and got another one of our best midfielders suspended for three games?

Dropped 10 points including Hull.

[weybridgewanderer]

in just 3 games we have gone from automatic promotion contenders coz we were worth so much more than our position suggested to "it'll be tough" to even make the play offs?

Correct me if I'm wrong but haven't we just dropped eight points
and got another one of our best midfielders suspended for three games?

Correct me if I am wrong but some of us suggested we were likely to drop lots of points in these 3 games!! Some didn't want to listen.

[Ian Royal]

Indeed Weybridge. In fact some of us predicted this string of results exactly.

[muddyfeet]

Stupid as it might be I'm still quite optimistic, even though the recent results should have persuaded me otherwise! I'll stay optimistic and unrealistic until there is no chance we can make the playoffs. And I'll enjoy the wins which come our way. We need to win against SU though, for confidence as well.

I do agree with some posters comments about players, I don't see the harm in trying Cummings and Zurab at all.

I think our main prob is we lack sources of goals throughout the squad, we are relying on Long too much like we relied on Sig last season. This is dangerous if they get sold.

[Mr Angry]

The last 3 games have shown that you can post as many stats, focus on as many trends, consider how much having a certain goal difference at this stage of the season relates to where you finally finish in the League, and it all means - as I and many others - have said before - absolutely nothing when your team come against teams that are better than you where it matters, on the field of play.

Those of us who watch games rather than study spreadsheets could (and did) foresee the recent results because we can see the relative pro's and con's of RFC against the teams that are above us rather than rely upon spurious stats chosen and weighted to give most impact for what the poster believes. (For example, my prediction was LDL; its actually been DLL - same points achieved).

And saying "Oooh - we were unlucky cos of this mistake" or "It would have been different if X was playing" frankly doesn't cut the mustard because ALL teams have the same luck, (both good and bad), get injuries and get suspensions.

Its equally rubbish to bleat about who those 3 games were against; that suggest that for all the pseudo-scientific BS, the stats king didn't factor in relative strengths of opponents!!!! How flawed does THAT make all of his previous postings?

As Weybridge has said - in 3 games Snowball has gone from posting how the trends suggest we will get 3rd or 4th, (as did the GD, as did the position of the Moon relative to Uranus), to now saying that unless we win the next game, all bets are off (which, ironically, is equally as stupid; whats to say that after a defeat to Shef Utd, we then win 5 or 6 games out of 7 and suddenly all bets are "on" again?).

Unbelievable.

[bcubed]

The last 3 games have shown that you can post as many stats, focus on as many trends, consider how much having a certain goal difference at this stage of the season relates to where you finally finish in the League, and it all means - as I and many others - have said before - absolutely nothing when your team come against teams that are better than you where it matters, on the field of play.

Those of us who watch games rather than study spreadsheets could (and did) foresee the recent results because we can see the relative pro's and con's of RFC against the teams that are above us rather than rely upon spurious stats chosen and weighted to give most impact for what the poster believes. (For example, my prediction was LDL; its actually been DLL - same points achieved).

And saying "Oooh - we were unlucky cos of this mistake" or "It would have been different if X was playing" frankly doesn't cut the mustard because ALL teams have the same luck, (both good and bad), get injuries and get suspensions.

Its equally rubbish to bleat about who those 3 games were against; that suggest that for all the pseudo-scientific BS, the stats king didn't factor in relative strengths of opponents!!!! How flawed does THAT make all of his previous postings?

As Weybridge has said - in 3 games Snowball has gone from posting how the trends suggest we will get 3rd or 4th, (as did the GD, as did the position of the Moon relative to Uranus), to now saying that unless we win the next game, all bets are off (which, ironically, is equally as stupid; whats to say that after a defeat to Shef Utd, we then win 5 or 6 games out of 7 and suddenly all bets are "on" again?).

Unbelievable.

Uh no they don't - and why should they?
Some have more luck than others as some people have more luck than others

And you can't always say that because X beat Y that X deserved it. Sometimes the better team loses
We could easily have beaten Cardiff and drawn with Norwich. The fact that we didn't is as much down to bad luck as anything

Don't get me wrong I am not a stats fan either but these results don't prove much

[Hoop Blah]

We could easily have beaten Cardiff and drawn with Norwich. The fact that we didn't is as much down to bad luck as anything

What a load of rubbish. It wasn't down to bad luck at all, it was down to getting sloppy and giving away silly goals.

Not giving away as many of those goals, and taking advantage of more opportunities that come their way at crucial times (Bellamy's free kick vs Harte's against QPR for example) is why the likes of QPR, Norwich and Cardiff are where they are and we're sat in the middle of a pretty average league.