Back from the Game - 'boro

[Wimb]

I agree with IR in that the style of football hasn't exactly been the greatest but it's been a case of Brian getting the best out of what he's got at his disposal. He's had half a transfer window with 'limited' investment. When he did have the likes of Long & Sigurdsson at his disposal he moulded a team that smashed in goals for fun at the end of the 2009/10 season and there were brief glimpses of it again when Long got going at the back end of last season.

There's no point in changing a winning formula right now just in case we get promoted, if you tinker now and we suddenly lose form it could be a massive chance blown. As Woodcote says the biggest priority is to get promoted then worry about life in the top division when you get there.

[Snowball]

We've been shit at penalties recently, Fuck your stats.

Big deal that we've been poor for a while. That's just the vagaries of chance, like Long
for a while couldn't get goals but came good.

We will score all or most of our penalties for the rest of this season

[Snowball]

While scrolling through match reports for the season we failed v Brum on the last day,
though that season we DID have a few big, exciting wins 5-0, 6-0, it's quite surprising
just how many times the OS says something like, "We were not at our fluent best but
we ground out the win..."

[winchester_royal]

We will score all or most of our penalties for the rest of this season

I honestly don't know how, when you've used all your other stats from the season so far to tell us with arrogant authority that certain things will DEFINITELY happen, and then completely ignore the stats on our penalty conversion rate this season to tell us this.

It's frighteningly contradictory.

[Snowball]

We will score all or most of our penalties for the rest of this season

I honestly don't know how, when you've used all your other stats from the season so far to tell us with
arrogant authority that certain things will DEFINITELY happen, and then completely ignore the stats
on our penalty conversion rate this season to tell us this.

It's frighteningly contradictory.

Actually it ISN'T contradictory. It's called regression to the mean. (Plus a little bit of confidence in the future)

You have missed a load of factors.


(a) Two of our penalty misses came at a time (Barnsley, Game4) when the team was in disarray
and lacking confidence in the middle of a run that would be 5 straight losses.

(b) Another miss came very soon after our worst performance (Watford 0-2) and finally hope, beating Doncaster 2-0
but the whole period (the first 12/13 games) we only won 4 games, and in the third win (Bristol) we were horrible
and the fourth win was Game 13

In other words, you can't sensibly compare the team's CURRENT mental state with then

(c) Harte is back in the team and is a top-quality penalty-taker with great, proven stats over many years and his miss was unusual.

I would back him to score 9 out of his next ten penalties

(d) We are ON FIRE, full of confidence.

(e) Our stats in taking penalties is comfortably higher than 80% extended over a bit longer than just this year, and the poor run now is anomalous and will be corrected



As for your other point. I am NOT "predicting what will happen, results-wise" based on Stats.

I am using stats to show WE HAVE A GOOD TEAM AND A GOOD SYSTEM
I am using stats to show WE ARE EASILY A TOP FOUR SIDE AND PROBABLY A TOP TWO SIDE

It is not the stats predicting, it's the stats SHOWING that from games 7-32 we have steadily improved
and have reached a dizzy 2.45 ppg.

You need to understand that it ISN'T "We won 10, therefore we will win ten"

It's

"We won 10, therefore we are clearly a top side."

If we are a top side, given normal luck we will win another ten.


The stats don't predict results. The stats qualify the quality of the team. The quality of the team suggests future results

[winchester_royal]

So you have stats to qualify that we have players that are in form when it comes to converting penalties?

I'd love to see them.

[Snowball]

So you have stats to qualify that we have players that are in form when it comes to converting penalties?

I'd love to see them.

Did I say that? Stop trolling.

[winchester_royal]

So you have stats to qualify that we have players that are in form when it comes to converting penalties?

I'd love to see them.

Did I say that? Stop trolling.

I'm not trolling. I am genuinely wondering. The stats so far this season show that we are pretty abject penalty takers. Now, given that you champion the use of stats at pretty much every level, I fail to see your reasoning here for ignoring said stats.

And using the excuse of the team being in 'disarray' for earlier penalty misses is pretty laughable.

You also go on to say how you are able to make predictions on future form with such confidence because you believe that that our form so far this season allows you to qualify the quality of the team. Therefore, if you want to make a prediction on future conversion rate of penalties then surely you have to take into account our conversion rate during the previous 30 odd games?

[Tommy Youlden's Ears]

I fail to see your reasoning here for ignoring said stats.

It's known in the trade as "Discarding Unfavourable Data".

[Franchise FC]

We experienced pretty football under Rodgers and look where that landed us. We're efficient and 3rd. Why are people complaining?

Because people would like us to be more entertaining.
Because we are not perfect and there is (almost) always room for improvement. Keeping the ball better and controlling games in midfield is unlikely to be unhelpful to our chances.
Because you could argue that it doesn't matter how ruthlessly efficient we are at this level, should we achieve the ultimate aim of the season and go up, if we can't hold onto the ball and retain possession, we'll get battered in the Premier League because teams will make their possession tell more than those at this level. We'll have even less of the ball and even fewer chances to capitalise on and those chances will be against better defences and better keepers, so will be harder to score.

At a guess, those seem like three plausible and reasonable reasons.

More like naive nonsense.

Nothing matters more than securing a place in the top flight and the huge £100m+ cash injection that goes with it, even if we're relegated at the end of the first season having lost every game, scored no goals and with no one in the team managing one successful pass in all 38 matches.

If 5 straight wins with no goals conceded or, winning 14 of the last 12, isn't enough without performances to match, the only way to get them is with the kind of cold hard cash that Premiership status provides.

Of course there's always room for improvement but when every team in the division would swap their current form for ours, fans of other clubs must read the constant bitching on these pages with incredulity

Bloody hell - we're better than I thought.

[LoyalRoyalFan]

We experienced pretty football under Rodgers and look where that landed us. We're efficient and 3rd. Why are people complaining?

Because people would like us to be more entertaining.
Because we are not perfect and there is (almost) always room for improvement. Keeping the ball better and controlling games in midfield is unlikely to be unhelpful to our chances.
Because you could argue that it doesn't matter how ruthlessly efficient we are at this level, should we achieve the ultimate aim of the season and go up, if we can't hold onto the ball and retain possession, we'll get battered in the Premier League because teams will make their possession tell more than those at this level. We'll have even less of the ball and even fewer chances to capitalise on and those chances will be against better defences and better keepers, so will be harder to score.

At a guess, those seem like three plausible and reasonable reasons.

More like naive nonsense.

Nothing matters more than securing a place in the top flight and the huge £100m+ cash injection that goes with it, even if we're relegated at the end of the first season having lost every game, scored no goals and with no one in the team managing one successful pass in all 38 matches.

If 5 straight wins with no goals conceded or, winning 14 of the last 12, isn't enough without performances to match, the only way to get them is with the kind of cold hard cash that Premiership status provides.

Of course there's always room for improvement but when every team in the division would swap their current form for ours, fans of other clubs must read the constant bitching on these pages with incredulity

Agreed.

[Ian Royal]

Nothing matters more than securing a place in the top flight and the huge £100m+ cash injection that goes with it, even if we're relegated at the end of the first season having lost every game, scored no goals and with no one in the team managing one successful pass in all 38 matches.

You may believe this. Not everyone else will. In fact I would say quite a lot matters more to me than securing a place in the top flight and the huge increase in income that comes with it. In fact, the income that comes with it means piss all to me.

That doesn't mean the ultimate aim isn't to get there. Or that getting there by being brutally effective, but tedious isn't a good achievement and shouldn't be done.

It's not like the club is getting slated. Just because things are going well doesn't mean everyone has to stand around patting ourselves on the back and pretending everything is utter perfection.

[Woodcote Royal]

But just about everything that others will list as things that matter more to them are dependant on the finance that Premiership status provides.

We played the kind of football that many miss when we had Long and Siggy in the side but had to sell them to balance the books.

Any fan with an ounce of reality in his soul should realise that when Brian's team wins five on the bounce without conceding, it's like scoring 180 with 3 darts....................perfection, regardless of the manner in which it was achieved and suggesting otherwise, unless you are happy for the club not to progress is, I'm sorry to say, naive.

[Ian Royal]

But just about everything that others will list as things that matter more to them are dependant on the finance that Premiership status provides.

We played the kind of football that many miss when we had Long and Siggy in the side but had to sell them to balance the books.

Any fan with an ounce of reality in his soul should realise that when Brian's team wins five on the bounce without conceding, it's like scoring 180 with 3 darts....................perfection, regardless of the manner in which it was achieved and suggesting otherwise, unless you are happy for the club not to progress is, I'm sorry to say, naive.

5 superb results. Football is not played over just 5 games though. And fans don't have to focus exclusively on one season at a time. And it is a reasonable desire to want entertainment, even if that isn't your primary desire... it may be, and is, that of others.

[Woodcote Royal]

That's why I compared it too a 3 dart 180.

The priority of at least half of this division over the 46 game season is to win the biggest prize in football, promotion to the EPL and, honestly, no one at RFC will give a flying one how he got us there if we're on Man U's fixture list for 2012-13.

[melonhead]

winning is all the entertainment i desire

[Snowball]

Absolutely.


Can't complain about the points per game
so need to switch to "the beautiful game" BS


and if we were playing great football and losing
then it'd be all about results being what mattered




and if we played beautiful football and won
they'd complain about the pies at half-time

[ZacNaloen]

I don't mind our style, but I would prefer it if we could do it and hold on to the ball for longer when we do have it. Would make us much more effective. That isn't about Barcelona style football, it's just not being sloppy in possession. Which largely we are.

[Woodcote Royal]

Absolutely.


Can't complain about the points per game
so need to switch to "the beautiful game" BS


and if we were playing great football and losing
then it'd be all about results being what mattered




and if we played beautiful football and won
they'd complain about the pies at half-time

Even when winning whilst playing beautiful football they'd still find plenty to moan about without having to resort to pies

[Simon's Church]

I don't mind our style, but I would prefer it if we could do it and hold on to the ball for longer when we do have it. Would make us much more effective. That isn't about Barcelona style football, it's just not being sloppy in possession. Which largely we are.

Agree with this, the sit deep and counter attack is fine and can be quite exciting, it's when we have time and space on the ball and still play a percentage ball into the channel or just plain get rid that's annoying.