How many points will it take?

[Sun Tzu]

Taking the last 5 seasons as a guide, the maximum we'll need is:-

53 to stay up (well done lads, safe already!)
75 to reach the playoffs
86 for promotion
91 to win the title

Minimums are 43, 68, 76, 80
Averages are 48, 71, 82, 87.

How does that work ?

The title has been won with more than 91 in the last 5 years so it cannot be true that the 'maximum' needed to win it is 91... At this stage the 'maximum' is whatever Wolves have plus the number they can still get.

Should add, I acknowledge your last point, but as I said it was just a guide. Hence 'we will' need rather than 'we do' need.

I see what you mean ! So many different stats, so many different interpretations !

I'm with Coppell (surprise, surprise) - one game at a time and wherever we end up is where we deserve to be !!

[Snowball]

how about we go for.... 90

good idea... doesn't the side that goes up second usually do better in the Prem?

well obviously that wasn't the case in 05/06......

Just looked at the stats. Another myth exploded

YEAR-Following Season?
2001-2 09 19 13
2002-3 13 19 20
2003-4 19 17 18
2004-5 20 10 09
2005-6 08 18 20
2006-7 15 19 20
14 17 17 Average
02 04 04 Relegated

Sides finishing 1st 4 stayed up first season, 2 relegated. 1 has stayed up 6 seasons, 1 stayed up 5, 2 went down second season
Sides finishing 2nd 2 stayed up first season, 4 relegated. 1 has stayed up 4 seasons, 1 stayed up 4 seasons, 1 went down second season
Sides finishing 3rd 1 stayed up first season, 5 relegated. 1 has stayed up 4 seasons. (West Ham)

Finishing First "established" 6th season Man City
Finishing First "established" 5th season Portsmouth
Finishing First "established" 2nd season Sunderland (not yet safe)
Finishing First "established" 2nd season Reading, relegated second season

Finishing 2nd "established" 4th season Wigan
Finishing 2nd "established" 2nd season WBA, relegated second season

Finishing 3rd "established" 3rd season West Ham


So as might be expected, sides finishing top usually do better than those in second
and they both do better than the side winning the play-offs.


No idea where I got the idea this wasn't the case!

[loyalroyal4life]

How about we go for 108 and see what happens along the way?

How about.......................... NO

So you don't want the team to try and win every game left then? Strange sort of fan you are.

Its called a REALIST mate

[Snowball]

It's NOT correct to look at third and say all we need is third +1

You have to look at what the second side gets

That's bcause in accruing those points
YOU TAKE POINTS OF THE LOWER SIDES.


Say you have this at the end of the season

92 Wolves
84 Reading
82 Bimingham

but we get there by winning the last game versus Brum... Had we drawn that game, then

83 Birmingham
82 Reading

Remember that the third side may only have 85 or 86 because the second side beat them at home and drew away


So look at what sides in second get, NOT what sides in third get

[cmonurz]

No, snowball, because looking back at previous seasons, the meetings between two teams account for only 6 points (each way) of each team's respective total. The correct statistical approach is to say that we 'need' one point more than third, which is the minimum requirement to gain automatic promotion. How we get that additional point is irrelevant (we could lose to Birmingham, but they could lose three more games than Reading before the end of the season).

Liverpool this season a good example - they have beaten their two closests rivals, but are 2nd, and struggling, due to draws against lesser sides.

[Ian Royal]

I see I don't need to make the third point because Snowball is already being bludgeoned over his dense head with it.

[CMRoyal]

It's NOT correct to look at third and say all we need is third +1

You have to look at what the second side gets

That's bcause in accruing those points
YOU TAKE POINTS OF THE LOWER SIDES.


Say you have this at the end of the season

92 Wolves
84 Reading
82 Bimingham

but we get there by winning the last game versus Brum... Had we drawn that game, then

83 Birmingham
82 Reading

Remember that the third side may only have 85 or 86 because the second side beat them at home and drew away


So look at what sides in second get, NOT what sides in third get

Applying that logic, say we have this at the end of the season after we beat Brum on the last day:-

92 Wolves
87 Reading
80 Bimingham

So, for future statistical purposes, how many points were required to gain promotion, 87 or 81? If the answer's 87, imagine Brum winning that last game. We'd go up with 84, so clearly 87 points weren't what was required. It's whatever 3rd gets +1 - that's the only formula that works.

[East Stand Royal 500]

I see I don't need to make the third point because Snowball is already being bludgeoned over his dense head with it.

You beat me to it!

We would have to lose some games quite badly not to have a better GD than a team on equal points. The only team close on GD is Wolves. I can see Reading and Wolves finishing joint second on points but for that to happen they would have to lose more games than us (or draw more) so their GD is unlikely to improve against ours in that scenario.

I'm quietly confident of automatic promotion.

[Ian Royal]

Snowball is clearly one of those people with a bit of a an obssession for numbers and who isn't really in touch with the real world.

Sadly I have to admit it's exactly the sort of thing that winds me up quite a lot. But everyone has their faults.

[Rawlie19]

It's NOT correct to look at third and say all we need is third +1

You have to look at what the second side gets

That's bcause in accruing those points
YOU TAKE POINTS OF THE LOWER SIDES.


Say you have this at the end of the season

92 Wolves
84 Reading
82 Bimingham

but we get there by winning the last game versus Brum... Had we drawn that game, then

83 Birmingham
82 Reading

Remember that the third side may only have 85 or 86 because the second side beat them at home and drew away


So look at what sides in second get, NOT what sides in third get

Applying that logic, say we have this at the end of the season after we beat Brum on the last day:-

92 Wolves
87 Reading
80 Bimingham

So, for future statistical purposes, how many points were required to gain promotion, 87 or 81? If the answer's 87, imagine Brum winning that last game. We'd go up with 84, so clearly 87 points weren't what was required. It's whatever 3rd gets +1 - that's the only formula that works.

If we got whatever 3rd got +1, then we'd only be 3rd... Shirley?

[Rawlie19]

How about.......................... NO

So you don't want the team to try and win every game left then? Strange sort of fan you are.

Its called a REALIST mate

I don't expect us to win every game left, but I'd sure as hell hope that they put the effort in and had the attitude to go and win each game as it comes. If not then I want my money back.

[Platypuss]

If we got whatever 3rd got +1, then we'd only be 3rd... Shirley?

But then 3rd would have been 4th!

This really isn't difficult. Are there more women on here than I had previously thought, or something?

[Rawlie19]

If we got whatever 3rd got +1, then we'd only be 3rd... Shirley?

But then 3rd would have been 4th!

This really isn't difficult. Are there more women on here than I had previously thought, or something?

Say we're 4th, and then get 1 more point than the team in 3rd, we'd be 3rd and they'd be 4th. Tell me I'm wrong.

[CMRoyal]

Applying that logic, say we have this at the end of the season after we beat Brum on the last day:-

92 Wolves
87 Reading
80 Bimingham

So, for future statistical purposes, how many points were required to gain promotion, 87 or 81? If the answer's 87, imagine Brum winning that last game. We'd go up with 84, so clearly 87 points weren't what was required. It's whatever 3rd gets +1 - that's the only formula that works.

If we got whatever 3rd got +1, then we'd only be 3rd... Shirley?

No, this is purely theoretical - what were minimum number of points required in order to finish in 2nd place, if 3rd place gained 80 points? Is it the number of points 2nd place actually gained, or the number that 3rd place gained, plus 1 (assuming we can't know how realative goal differences finish up)?

[East Stand Royal 500]

If we got whatever 3rd got +1, then we'd only be 3rd... Shirley?

But then 3rd would have been 4th!

This really isn't difficult. Are there more women on here than I had previously thought, or something?

Say we're 4th, and then get 1 more point than the team in 3rd, we'd be 3rd and they'd be 4th. Tell me I'm wrong.

We could be second or even first on goal difference!

If the 4th team has 85 points and we and two others had 86, our goal difference should see us finish top unless the other two teams on 85 put in some extraordinary performances.

[Rawlie19]

Applying that logic, say we have this at the end of the season after we beat Brum on the last day:-

92 Wolves
87 Reading
80 Bimingham

So, for future statistical purposes, how many points were required to gain promotion, 87 or 81? If the answer's 87, imagine Brum winning that last game. We'd go up with 84, so clearly 87 points weren't what was required. It's whatever 3rd gets +1 - that's the only formula that works.

If we got whatever 3rd got +1, then we'd only be 3rd... Shirley?

No, this is purely theoretical - what were minimum number of points required in order to finish in 2nd place, if 3rd place gained 80 points? Is it the number of points 2nd place actually gained, or the number that 3rd place gained, plus 1 (assuming we can't know how realative goal differences finish up)?

And that theory means that there is nobody in 2nd, just somebody in 3rd. We know that's not reality though. I do get what you're saying.

[Sun Tzu]

If you stick an extra team in second then where do they get all those points from ?

You seem to be adding an extra team to the division and assigning them points that they must have taken off the teams around them but not deducting any points off anyone.

[Platypuss]

If we got whatever 3rd got +1, then we'd only be 3rd... Shirley?

But then 3rd would have been 4th!

This really isn't difficult. Are there more women on here than I had previously thought, or something?

Say we're 4th, and then get 1 more point than the team in 3rd, we'd be 3rd and they'd be 4th. Tell me I'm wrong.

It's all about finishing position at the end of the season - in your example that team wouldn't be third.

If, at the end of the season, you have 1 more point than the team in third, you are second (or even first).

Tell me I'm wrong.

[CMRoyal]

If you stick an extra team in second then where do they get all those points from ?

You seem to be adding an extra team to the division and assigning them points that they must have taken off the teams around them but not deducting any points off anyone.

It's theoretical, just to give an idea of the points required. eg

Season 1

1st: Team A - 100 pts

3rd: Team C - 79 pts

Season 2

1st: Team A - 100 pts

3rd: Team C - 89 pts

What is the average minimum number of points Team B required in order to finish 2nd? Answer: 85.

In real life, it might actually have ended up thus:-

Season 1

1st: Team A - 100 pts
2nd: Team B - 91 pts
3rd: Team C - 79 pts

Season 2

1st: Team A - 100 pts
2nd: Team B - 89 pts
3rd: Team C - 89 pts

And some might draw the conclusion that an average of 90pts was required.

Either way, as this is theoretical, no teams are added or removed, no individual results are relevant, it's just for the purposes of giving a guide as to what might be required this season.

[CMRoyal]

Yeah, I know, oxf*rd up the sums. Duly edited.