89 Points?

[SLAMMED]

Statistics CANNOT tell you where we are going to finish this season. END OF.

[Mad Dog's Ghost]

According to Snowball's stats we've no need to worry about brum. But like I said, for a team that's apparently crap, with a manager who's supposedly clueless, and for a side that's horribly out of form ... they're breathing right down our neck.

Now, barring something spectacular, it does look like a 4 horse race (if cardiff can get 4 points out of their games in hand). But I reckon it's going to go to the wire. And while the stats might say we're getting a recent return of 1.567984074 per game or whatever, the evidence of my eyes on Saturday says we're not at our best.

Keep those fingers crossed.

[hughsies no.1]

snowball and stats. please do 1!

[Arch]

Statistics CANNOT tell you where we are going to finish this season. END OF.

As of today, nothing can. Shall we stop speculating?

[Ian Royal]

Why is it the more someone is presented with sensible and logical arguments on here, and the more they tend to be fighting their point on their own, the less inclined to listen to reason they are and the more they just resort to calling everyone else an idiot?

Is snowball really 61?

[Arch]

IF
Reading
beat
Birmingham
by
exactly
three points
to win promotion

then SPECIFICALLY, the game that took us up was defeating Birmingham at St Andrews.

That is so obvious!

45 games... a load of points (say 83) Birmingham
45 games... a load of points (say 83) Reading

and imagine goals scored/against are identical

It's the last game of the season. If Reading win, only a moron could say they didn't go up "because they beat Birmingham in their last game"

And yet if Reading win in this scenario they
beat
Birmingham
by
exactly
three points
to win promotion

So which game put them up?

A word of advice. You've got some major league blinkers on here and every time you call someone a moron or stupid, it just makes your own mistakes look worse. Step back and take a look.

[Sun Tzu]

If we go into the final game exactly level with Brum and then draw the game we still go up because you take results between the two teams into account.

In that case which game is it that specifically saw us gain promotion ?

[Stranded]

If we go into the final game exactly level with Brum and then draw the game we still go up because you take results between the two teams into account.

In that case which game is it that specifically saw us gain promotion ?

Add to that a possible situation wherby after 45 games:

1. Wolves 92pts GD +30
2. Reading 88pts GD +42
3. Brum 85pts GD +12

Now Birmingham beat us 3-1 thus "cancelling out" the 3-1 at their place. We finish on the same points but we are promoted - in this situation, which game has got us promoted?

[RobRoyal]

LOL@ Snowball

Senile dementure?

[CMRoyal]

Is snowball really 61?

The curse of early retirement - too much spare time.

[CMRoyal]

Speaking of which, an update on the predicted finish based on an average of season so far and extrapolation from last 6 games:-

1. Cardiff (!) - 86
2. Reading - 85
3. Wolves - 83
4. Brum - 80

[Royal With Cheese]

Speaking of which, an update on the predicted finish based on an average of season so far and extrapolation from last 6 games:-

1. Cardiff (!) - 86
2. Reading - 85
3. Wolves - 83
4. Brum - 80

Fine by me as long as we go up.

[Snowball]

As Coppell says, it's a marathon not a sprint.

All sides get sticky patches.

Our current 20-game form is better than our first twenty
Our current 15 game form is a LOT better than our first 15
Our current 10 game form is just a point worse than our first 10
Our current 06 game form is just a point worse than our first 06

The defence has got better and better as the season has progressed and the goal-scoring
overall has been remarkably similar (first 15 versus last 15) only the 6-0 against Wednesday distorting things

We conceded 1.33 goals a game in our first 06 games
We conceded 1.10 goals a game in our first 10 games
We conceded 1.07 goals a game in our first 15 games
We conceded 1.00 goals a game in our first 20 games

BUT

We have only conceded 13 goals in our last 20 league games (.65 a game)
We have only conceded 09 goals in our last 15 league games (.60 a game)
We have only conceded 05 goals in our last 10 league games (.50 a game)
We have only conceded 03 goals in our last 06 league games (.50 a game)

[Snowball]

First 20 v Last 20

45-20 (+25) 11-4-5 37 points
31-13 (+18) 11-6-3 39 points Last 20 slightly better

First 15 v Last 15

33-16 (+17) 07-03-05 24 points (conceding 1.1 goals a game)
30-09 (+21) 08-05-02 29 points Last 15 a lot better (conceding .6 of a goal a game)

Last 10 v First 10

26-11 (+15) 06-02-02 20 points
13-05 (+08) 05-04-01 19 points last 10 worse by just a point

Last 06 v First 06

14-08 (+06) 03-01-02 10 points
05-03 (+02) 02-03-01 09 points last 6 worse by just a point

First 6 = Forest, Plymouth Charlton, Palace, Ipswich, Wednesday Average position 16th


Recent 6 = Preston, QPR, Swansea, Wolves, Watford, Saints Average position 10th



Season so far

59 points in 31 games (1.903 points per game)

15 games to go = 28.6 points = 87 or 88 points total

87.56 points based on season to date
89.25 points based on last 20 games form
88.00 points based on last 15 games form
87.50 points based on last 10 games form
82.00 points based on last 06 games form (predicts W5 8/9D 2/3 Losses)

So based on the last TEN games, we look fine, on the last 6 games we don’t
(if you ignore the fact that 4 of our last 6 were against “promotion sides”)

Personally I will be shocked rigid if we don’t score 86 or more.

Optimistically I think we'll W8 D5 L1 before the Birmingham game if that's the last one and we'll be on 88 points
Pessimistically it could be W6 D6 L2 = 83 points and we could need to win the last game. Jeez

[Ian Royal]

Is snowball really 61?

The curse of early retirement - too much spare time.

More likely the curse of early onset dementia

[cmonurz]

I think a pessimistic view, Snowball, would be more than 2 defeats before the end of the season.

[Ian Royal]

I think a pessimistic view, Snowball, would be more than 2 defeats before the end of the season.

I'd say the optimistic view could be 14 w, 0 d, 0 l and the pessimistic could be 0 w, 0 d, 14 l.

[Snowball]

I think a pessimistic view, Snowball, would be more than 2 defeats before the end of the season.

that's YOUR "pessimistic", my pessimistic is probably a HNA "out of his tree"


BTW I was excluding the Birmingham game.

I think we could struggle at Doncaster and win 1-0 or lose by the same score.

I have a sneaky feeling it will be very tough at Hiillsboro but I have relations
who are Wednesday fans and when I said they might beat us 1-0 after their 0-6
they laughed and said Wednesday were all academy kids now and hopeless

But looking at our squad, and particular how good the defense is it's hard to see many, if any, defeats

a more realistic "pessimistic view" might be a series of too many 0-0 draws

There's always a shock possibility of course. Who would have predicted the 1-2 versus Southampton?

[Snowball]

I'd say the optimistic view could be 14 w, 0 d, 0 l and the pessimistic could be 0 w, 0 d, 14 l.

Nope, W14 is just dumb based on all current knowledge, just as L14 is.

but then...

[Snowball]

Is snowball really 61?

The curse of early retirement - too much spare time.

More likely the curse of early onset dementia

Is yours bad at present, Ian?