Brian: The right decision?

[melonhead]

Nit picking at the word 'luck' in football?

It(luck) can swing both ways, a prime example of having good fortune/luck and not having good fortune/unlucky:- Man City 1 - Reading 0, 2012.
Man City were lucky to have their goal allowed due to a blatant foul on Shorey, we were unlucky to not have a penalty when Tabb was fouled in their penalty box. We were unlucky to be on the end of a controversial decision that went against us, the 92nd controversial goal. Luck had a factor in the result.

Please, you cannot say luck had no play in this game? Luck or being unlucky does play a part in football, sport..

We did win the Championship with luck involved, as well as other factors (tactics, subs, team selection, determination etc etc), it is as clear as day.

no one said there was no luck in individual games. just that over a 40 odd game season, its not really a determining factor.

[AirRaidSiren]

Even setting aside the fact that neither of those Man City incidents were clear cut, you can't extrapolate from that and say Reading got relegated due to luck.

Similarly, there's no case to be made to say that McDermott's Reading were lucky to get promoted. They weren't. People only say that to demean the manager after the fact because of what happened last season.

Deserved to win the title. Deserved to get relegated.

The Tabb incident wasn't as clear cut as the blatant foul on Shorey to allow them to score their goal, hence the 'controversial' 92nd goal, it's open to debate and they had the luck of the draw with the referee allowing it, other referee's may have thought differently.

Your point on us being relegated due to luck, is spot on. Luck had no involvement in that case. There were so many factors that got us relegated and personally, luck would have no involvement in keeping us up, where as, us being promoted, the amount of factors favoured us and we pipped Saints to win it, luck had a part to play.

And I'm rushing this answer as I'm off home

[creative_username_1]

Nit picking at the word 'luck' in football?

It(luck) can swing both ways, a prime example of having good fortune/luck and not having good fortune/unlucky:- Man City 1 - Reading 0, 2012.
Man City were lucky to have their goal allowed due to a blatant foul on Shorey, we were unlucky to not have a penalty when Tabb was fouled in their penalty box. We were unlucky to be on the end of a controversial decision that went against us, the 92nd controversial goal. Luck had a factor in the result.

Please, you cannot say luck had no play in this game? Luck or being unlucky does play a part in football, sport..

We did win the Championship with luck involved, as well as other factors (tactics, subs, team selection, determination etc etc), it is as clear as day.

no one said there was no luck in individual games. just that over a 40 odd game season, its not really a determining factor.

thats not true. Some teams are going to be luckier than others, over the course of a season it will have some impact. Stronger more able teams/squads should perform better

[melonhead]

it is true
you are simply wrong

[winchester_royal]

In any sample 46 observations is not enough to ensure that the sample mean converges to the expected value.

[Extended-Phenotype]

Winchester, you've decided all on your own that people are arguing there is no luck whatsoever, and selective quoting doesn't really change that.

The argument from AirRaidSiren was

"We were very lucky to win the Championship with him"

The response was

"You don't win a 46 game tournament through luck"

All that's left for you is to Point out that luck exists and pretend people are denying that? I'd say that's quite a collapse.

[melonhead]

[melonhead]

actually i would argue that luck as an entity/phenomenon exists

its merely a construct of the brain to cope with the idea of random occurences


but i concur with your general sentiment

[AirRaidSiren]

Nit picking at the word 'luck' in football?

It(luck) can swing both ways, a prime example of having good fortune/luck and not having good fortune/unlucky:- Man City 1 - Reading 0, 2012.
Man City were lucky to have their goal allowed due to a blatant foul on Shorey, we were unlucky to not have a penalty when Tabb was fouled in their penalty box. We were unlucky to be on the end of a controversial decision that went against us, the 92nd controversial goal. Luck had a factor in the result.

Please, you cannot say luck had no play in this game? Luck or being unlucky does play a part in football, sport..

We did win the Championship with luck involved, as well as other factors (tactics, subs, team selection, determination etc etc), it is as clear as day.

no one said there was no luck in individual games. just that over a 40 odd game season, its not really a determining factor.

Of course it has, if it has some factor in individual games, then overall it had some factor too, surely?

[winchester_royal]

Winchester, you've decided all on your own that people are arguing there is no luck whatsoever, and selective quoting doesn't really change that.

The argument from AirRaidSiren was

"We were very lucky to win the Championship with him"

The response was

"You don't win a 46 game tournament through luck"

All that's left for you is to Point out that luck exists and pretend people are denying that? I'd say that's quite a collapse.

[MouldyRoyal]

actually i would argue that luck as an entity/phenomenon exists

its merely a construct of the brain to cope with the idea of random occurences


but i concur with your general sentiment

Agreed, I don't believe in luck in as much as I do believe in statistics.

[Extended-Phenotype]

actually i would argue that luck as an entity/phenomenon exists

its merely a construct of the brain to cope with the idea of random occurences


but i concur with your general sentiment

I'm a determinist so I'd actually argue against the idea of random occurrences, but I concur with your sentiment also.

x

[Avon Royal]

Deserved to win the title. Deserved to get relegated. Deserved to get sacked.

This basically.

[creative_username_1]

it is true
you are simply wrong

lol

[melonhead]

actually i would argue that luck as an entity/phenomenon exists

its merely a construct of the brain to cope with the idea of random occurences


but i concur with your general sentiment

I'm a determinist so I'd actually argue against the idea of random occurrences, but I concur with your sentiment also.

x

Xx

[creative_username_1]

actually i would argue that luck as an entity/phenomenon exists

its merely a construct of the brain to cope with the idea of random occurences


but i concur with your general sentiment

Agreed, I don't believe in luck in as much as I do believe in statistics.

As a data scientist (thats what they bill it as these days) i totally believe that luck/randomness plays a much
bigger part in life than people suspect.

[melonhead]

in a complex multifaceted system like football games, where there are a million random factors influencing all players on both teams, and the ball, and the ref it has less effect than youd think and theyll all just even themselves out over a whole season


people make the mistake of taking each game as one occurence and saying 46 isnt enough to make randomness irrelevant.
when actually its each of the thousands of individual factors in each game that should be counted, meaning the sample size is much bigger.

no ones saying it isnt a factor, just saying its not the determining factor over a season,
and it affects both sides equally over the time scales/number of individual random events involved in a football season,

[melonhead]

in summary:

winchester said:

It's my opinion that if you benefit from something you did not intend to do then that's luck.

and i replied:

but we did intend to allow teams possession in their own halves, and score goals through quick breaks and clinical finishing.
so.......

and that really should have been that

[kevan]

I remember someone on this board years ago posting "surely in any game you either win or don't, isn't that 50:50 probability" - made me laugh

[Extended-Phenotype]

actually i would argue that luck as an entity/phenomenon exists

its merely a construct of the brain to cope with the idea of random occurences


but i concur with your general sentiment

Agreed, I don't believe in luck in as much as I do believe in statistics.

As a data scientist (thats what they bill it as these days) i totally believe that luck/randomness plays a much
bigger part in life than people suspect.

Unpredictability, yes.
Luck/randomness, no.