Coronavirus outbreak

[10539.4 Miles Away]

Weather could be a problem in December I think for cricket.

Not necessarily. It is possible to play cricket in snow although the white ball game could be difficult.

Exactly what shot is he trying to play there? Terrible stance. Although if he does connect I suspect the cameraman might be wearing that one

[Hendo]

Not necessarily. It is possible to play cricket in snow although the white ball game could be difficult.

Exactly what shot is he trying to play there? Terrible stance. Although if he does connect I suspect the cameraman might be wearing that one

I think he is shaping up to moo it over cow corner, but will fool everyone by dabbing it down to third man for a safe single.

[10539.4 Miles Away]

Exactly what shot is he trying to play there? Terrible stance. Although if he does connect I suspect the cameraman might be wearing that one

I think he is shaping up to moo it over cow corner, but will fool everyone by dabbing it down to third man for a safe single.

Yeah the field placings are suspect. Vacant third man is bound to be in play. Good call.

[bcubed]

Watching a bit of NRL this morning and unless I'm very much mistaken they have added crowd noise. Actually works quite well imo. Wonder if the Prem or EFL are considering?

Not so sure about the cardboard cutouts in the stand!

[Snowball]

The PHE (Public Health England) briefing fo senior NHS officials
has been leaked. In The Guardian today

1 Predicts up to 7.9 Million may be hospitalised
2 Pandemic likely to be around until Spring 2021 (1 Year +)
3 Up to 80% of UK population likely to be infected
4 May dip for a while in Summer, returning November
5 Best estimates say 10% of critical workers off sick at any one time
6 No more screening
7 Case numbers likely to rise very quickly for 10-14 weeks
8 Half a million UK may die
9 1% mortality rate will mean 531,000 UK deaths
10 0.6% mortality rate would mean 318,660 UK deaths

EDIT: Perspective: 450,000 UK Citizens died in World War II 1939-1945





https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ianTodayUK

[Snowball]

The spread of MERS was ONLY in hospitals and required PROLONGED contact with an infected person, so drop that off your argument.

We didn’t see anything REMOTELY like this governmental reaction when SARS reared its head.

I don’t claim to be a virologist or an academic researcher but I CAN read and I’m only quoting official sources.

My analysis is just my analysis, something any reasonably-educated person could do.

It is FARCICAL to think the Chinese lock-down idea is the answer. If it was that easy, we could just shut everything down for three months, let the virus die, and all live happily-ever-after.

Your analysis gets basic epidemiology wrong and indeed calls it farcical.

If you stop transmission then unless the pathogen has a natural reservoir or can lie dormant, then the disease stops.

This is not farcical, it is a basic fact.

The reason total lockdown wouldn’t actually work perfectly is not biological, it’s economic, behavioural, and political. Total quarantine except for food delivery services would be unacceptable and would have knock-on effects.

In fairness you seem to be getting a better grip on the numbers, but you are completely failing to relate them to the real world.

I did one epidemiology module at university. I wouldn’t claim to be an expert but I can tell when someone is bullshitting.

Well Sciag we hd a longish Lockdown 1.... how did that work out?

[SCIAG]

The spread of MERS was ONLY in hospitals and required PROLONGED contact with an infected person, so drop that off your argument.

We didn’t see anything REMOTELY like this governmental reaction when SARS reared its head.

I don’t claim to be a virologist or an academic researcher but I CAN read and I’m only quoting official sources.

My analysis is just my analysis, something any reasonably-educated person could do.

It is FARCICAL to think the Chinese lock-down idea is the answer. If it was that easy, we could just shut everything down for three months, let the virus die, and all live happily-ever-after.

Your analysis gets basic epidemiology wrong and indeed calls it farcical.

If you stop transmission then unless the pathogen has a natural reservoir or can lie dormant, then the disease stops.

This is not farcical, it is a basic fact.

The reason total lockdown wouldn’t actually work perfectly is not biological, it’s economic, behavioural, and political. Total quarantine except for food delivery services would be unacceptable and would have knock-on effects.

In fairness you seem to be getting a better grip on the numbers, but you are completely failing to relate them to the real world.

I did one epidemiology module at university. I wouldn’t claim to be an expert but I can tell when someone is bullshitting.

Well Sciag we hd a longish Lockdown 1.... how did that work out?

I can’t believe you’re still wrong about this now Seriously, you didn’t spend any time in the last few months trying to learn about epidemiology?

We didn’t have a “Chinese style lockdown”. HTH. If we had completely shut down except for the delivery of food parcels then the virus would have died out just like SARS. Instead people were allowed to leave their homes, meet other people, go to the shops, go to see doctors, etc. Even then, if we had the political will to keep the R below 1 for long enough it would still have died out. The issue is not that shutting down completely for three months would not have worked in perfect circumstances, it’s that circumstances are never perfect for economic, political, and behavioural reasons. Do you understand the distinction?