89 Points?

[Ian Royal]

no mental health problems here.

14 losses is no more or less relavent as a pessimitic possibility than your arbitrarily chosen 2 losses, 6 wins 6 draws.

[CMRoyal]

I think a pessimistic view, Snowball, would be more than 2 defeats before the end of the season.

Dividing the season into three 15-games chunks (excluding game 46: Brum), I'd say pessimistic is 5 defeats. We lost 4 in the first 15, and 2 in the second 15.

W D L Pts
8 3 4 27
9 4 2 31

So, a pessimistic view from me for the final 15 is:-

W D L Pts
7 3 5 24

Leaving us with 82 points going into the last game.

All this takes no account of the relative ease or difficulty of remaining fixtures (ie the 8 away games in 12 in March/April, is it?)

[CMRoyal]

Roll on the next actual match, eh?

[Ian Royal]

If you take the form from the last 6 games you would be looking at our last 15 containing:

5 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses
23 pts Total 82
Taking the worst possible recent form (since Xmas: 7 games)

We would get:

4 Wins, 9 draws, 2 losses
21 pts Total 80
Obviously there is still room for our form to get worse as well.

However if you take 10 games it looks more like:

7 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses (pessimistically, you could drop the losses and raise the wins by 1)
27pts Total 86

Of course, all this is pretty meaningless.

[Snowball]

no mental health problems here.

14 losses is no more or less relavent as a pessimitic possibility than your arbitrarily chosen 2 losses, 6 wins 6 draws.

one of the first signs is typos and then the spelling goes

[cmonurz]

no mental health problems here.

14 losses is no more or less relavent as a pessimitic possibility than your arbitrarily chosen 2 losses, 6 wins 6 draws.

one of the first signs is typos and then the spelling goes

Is that why you use so many numbers?

[Snowball]

I thought the numbers would be better cos I wasn't sure you could read

[Ian Royal]

I was typing quickly coz I was on my lunch break and this thread is so full of bullshit already I didn't think anyone would notice a few non-proof read typo filled posts.

[PlasticRoyale]

Can someone summarise both sides of the argument for me. I was keeping an eye on this thread but can't be arsed to trawl through the entire lot. Don't spend to much time on the team board as there is far too much football chat going on but this one has been making me LOL

[Arch]

Argument 1: Stats are evil v stats are FACT. Result 0-0.

Argument 2: There's a statistical reason for why we need a big gap between 2nd and 3rd. Result snowball lost on a TKO.

Argument 3: Snowball is senile, Ian is stupid. Result 0-0.

[PlasticRoyale]

Argument 1: Stats are evil v stats are FACT. Result 0-0.

Argument 2: There's a statistical reason for why we need a big gap between 2nd and 3rd. Result snowball lost on a TKO.

Argument 3: Snowball is senile, Ian is stupid. Result 0-0.

Ta...

[Cookie]

This may not be the best place or time but I like Jimmy Kebe.

[Snowball]

I was looking at the fixtures to come and wondering about likely results
and was surprised at the possible totals.

And yes, I DO recognise that a possible total is 44 points, losing
all our games, going into administration and being docked 15 points
or automatic relegation for financial irregularities. But on EARTH, spock...

When I went through first time it didn't feel outrageously optimistic

2 1 BRISTOL CITY
2 0 NOTTS FOREST
1 1 Wednesday
2 1 Plymouth
4 0 CHARLTON
1 0 IPSWICH
0 1 Doncaster
1 1 Palace
1 1 Coventry
1 0 SHEFF UTD
1 0 Blackpool
1 0 BARNSLEY
1 0 Derby
0 0 Norwich
1 0 BRUM

19 6


W10 D4 L1

34 Pts 2.27 per game

93 POINTS TOTAL

Champions

===================================

So I thought, take off the rose-coloured glasses...

Lose at Wednesday (revenge for the 6-0)

only draw at Plymouth who are in free-fall

Lose at Doncaster
Lose at Palace
Lose at Coventry

only draw at Norwich


2 1 BRISTOL CITY
2 0 NOTTS FOREST
0 1 Wednesday
1 1 Plymouth
4 0 CHARLTON
1 0 IPSWICH
0 1 Doncaster
0 1 Palace
0 1 Coventry
1 0 SHEFF UTD
1 0 Blackpool
1 0 BARNSLEY
1 0 Derby
0 0 Norwich
1 0 BRUM


15 6

W9 D2 L4

29 1.93
88 Points Promoted in 2nd?

===========================================

And starting to really get pessimistic while not veing dumb

Lose at Wednesday (revenge for the 6-0)

only draw at Plymouth who are in free-fall

Lose at Doncaster
Lose at Palace
Lose at Coventry

only draw at Norwich

lose at home to Birmingham


2 1 BRISTOL CITY
2 0 NOTTS FOREST
0 1 Wednesday
1 1 Plymouth
4 0 CHARLTON
1 0 IPSWICH
0 1 Doncaster
0 1 Palace
0 1 Coventry
1 0 SHEFF UTD
1 0 Blackpool
1 0 BARNSLEY
1 0 Derby
0 0 Norwich
0 1 BRUM


14 7

26 Points 1.73

85 Points 3rd?


I still think 89+ looks likely (2 points a game from here on in, against more lowly teams)


And YES, of course it's "possible" we'll lose at home to Brissle and then Forest or any other mad combo of results
but how likely is it that our defense will suddenly start leaking goals when it's incredibly settled and robust,
how likely is it that the defensive midfield will suddenly go missing?

The only negative scenario I can realistically imagine is if the goals really did dry up. I don't think they will

[Southbank Old Boy]

I know you ignored all the stuff about 1-0 results the other day, and I for most people I would assume that those 1-0 games you have predicted are by way of showing the win/loss as opposed to the actual result, but as its you are you seriously suggesting we will see so few goals in our remaining games?

You have us down as being in something like 7 to 10 1-0 games there

[Snowball]

I know you ignored all the stuff about 1-0 results the other day, and I for most people I would assume that those 1-0 games you have predicted are by way of showing the win/loss as opposed to the actual result, but as its you are you seriously suggesting we will see so few goals in our remaining games?

You have us down as being in something like 7 to 10 1-0 games there

No, I actually thought "1-0 win" and if you look at the way our ten game runs have been going
we have been getting more and more mean at the back, and scoring less.

We started letting in 1.1 a game, and that dropped below 1, then to .67 a game and now it's just .5

I suspect games are going to get tighter and tighter

[Southbank Old Boy]

I know you ignored all the stuff about 1-0 results the other day, and I for most people I would assume that those 1-0 games you have predicted are by way of showing the win/loss as opposed to the actual result, but as its you are you seriously suggesting we will see so few goals in our remaining games?

You have us down as being in something like 7 to 10 1-0 games there

No, I actually thought "1-0 win" and if you look at the way our ten game runs have been going
we have been getting more and more mean at the back, and scoring less.

We started letting in 1.1 a game, and that dropped below 1, then to .67 a game and now it's just .5

I suspect games are going to get tighter and tighter

We wont see half that number of 1-0 games

[The 17 Bus]

three and a half??


The whole thread is nonsense, 89 pts should get us up automatically, if we get 89 and it does not, it is not the end of the world, and whoever is above us will deserve promotion, since when did it all become so imprtant, as if live depended on it.

[Snowball]

Incidentally, whatever our results there are a lot of six-pointers which might help Reading.

02H - 05A = 07 six-pointers BRISTOL........ Home to Cardiff and Preston, have to travel to Birmingham, Burnley, QPR, Reading and Swansea!!
03H - 02A = 05 six-pointers CARDIFF.......... Home to QPR, Sheffield United and Swansea, travel to Bristol and Wolves
02H - 03A = 05 six-pointers QPR.............. Home to Swansea & Bristol but have to go to Burnley, Cardiff and Preston
01H - 03A = 04 six-pointers SWANSEA........ Home to Bristol and have to go to Cardiff, QPR and Sheffield
02H - 02A = 04 six-pointers BIRMINGHAM....Home to Bristol and Wolves, have to go to Sheffield United and Reading
01H - 02A = 03 six pointers WOLVES..........Home to Cardiff and have to go to Burnley and Birmingham
04H - 00A = 04 six-pointers BURNLEY.........Home to Wolves, QPR, Sheffield United and Bristol. Let's hope they do well!
01H - 01A = 02 six-pointers PRESTON.........Home to QPR, away to Bristol, relatively easy run in then...
03H - 00A = 03 six-pointers READING.........Home to Bristol, Sheffield United and Birmingham

Bristol seem to have crept up on me, and they had a good side last year,
but they have two home six-pointers and five away, so if their run continues
they could do a lot of damage to the chasing teams (including us!)

Burnley have four HOME six-pointers, none away, Reading have three home six pointers, none away

[Snowball]

three and a half??


The whole thread is nonsense, 89 pts should get us up automatically, if we get 89 and it does not, it is not the end of the world, and whoever is above us will deserve promotion, since when did it all become so imprtant, as if live depended on it.

Of course 89 points should get us up automatically, did someone suggest it wouldn't?


It has only failed to do so once in 15 years when 90 came third.


Isn't the question "will we get 89 points and if not, how many?"

[Snowball]

We wont see half that number of 1-0 games

I sincerely hope you're right, but I'd settle for any kind of win.

We wont see half that number of 1-0 games

Funny how elsewhere on the board people are saying we'll never score another goal, though!