Rival Watch

[tidus_mi2]

BBC Derby and Alan Nixon in The Sun reporting that Chris Kirchner is about to name preferred bidder for Derby.

Some 4 months after his bid was turned down and he walked away.

If true, that could give the club, team and fans a lift between now and the end of the season which is something we need to be aware of.

We just need to focus on ourselves, if we do that we should comfortably have enough to stay up.

[Stranded]

BBC Derby and Alan Nixon in The Sun reporting that Chris Kirchner is about to name preferred bidder for Derby.

Some 4 months after his bid was turned down and he walked away.

If true, that could give the club, team and fans a lift between now and the end of the season which is something we need to be aware of.

We really don't - as they are 2 wins behind us.

If Derby catch us, it's because we will have been really poor over the run-in, not because they may have a buyer - one who plans to raise the funds by borrowing against the club BTW.

Win tonight and they could be bought out by a consortium of Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and The Queen and I wouldn't care.

[Stranded]

Interestingly* the article by Alan Nixon suggests the deal may be rushed through as it is less than the EFL minimum amount for exiting administration.

This would see 15 points docked this season, which would relegate Derby immediately - they would be on 13pts - so could only get to 31.

They want to do this so they can start in L1 with a clean slate.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

BBC Derby and Alan Nixon in The Sun reporting that Chris Kirchner is about to name preferred bidder for Derby.

Some 4 months after his bid was turned down and he walked away.

If true, that could give the club, team and fans a lift between now and the end of the season which is something we need to be aware of.

We really don't - as they are 2 wins behind us.

If Derby catch us, it's because we will have been really poor over the run-in, not because they may have a buyer - one who plans to raise the funds by borrowing against the club BTW.

Win tonight and they could be bought out by a consortium of Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and The Queen and I wouldn't care.

I'm not suggesting it will necessarily keep them up, but it could be a factor over the next couple of games. If they win their next 2 games and we lose them, they will go above us. Not the most unlikely scenario in this league.

[Hendo]

Interestingly* the article by Alan Nixon suggests the deal may be rushed through as it is less than the EFL minimum amount for exiting administration.

This would see 15 points docked this season, which would relegate Derby immediately - they would be on 13pts - so could only get to 31.

They want to do this so they can start in L1 with a clean slate.

The position they are in now, you'd certainly want to take -15 today and start next season on 0 rather than risking getting relegated anyway and then starting in L1 on -15.

[Stranded]

If true, that could give the club, team and fans a lift between now and the end of the season which is something we need to be aware of.

We really don't - as they are 2 wins behind us.

If Derby catch us, it's because we will have been really poor over the run-in, not because they may have a buyer - one who plans to raise the funds by borrowing against the club BTW.

Win tonight and they could be bought out by a consortium of Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and The Queen and I wouldn't care.

I'm not suggesting it will necessarily keep them up, but it could be a factor over the next couple of games. If they win their next 2 games and we lose them, they will go above us. Not the most unlikely scenario in this league.

Yes but that is why we don't need to worry about this as a) no actual announcement has been made and b) them going past us depends on us being shit.

And technically they'd need to win the next 2 and us lose the next 3 for them to go above us - and if that happens, then we deserve anything that happens to us.

[Stranded]

Interestingly* the article by Alan Nixon suggests the deal may be rushed through as it is less than the EFL minimum amount for exiting administration.

This would see 15 points docked this season, which would relegate Derby immediately - they would be on 13pts - so could only get to 31.

They want to do this so they can start in L1 with a clean slate.

The position they are in now, you'd certainly want to take -15 today and start next season on 0 rather than risking getting relegated anyway and then starting in L1 on -15.

You would, but I don't think it is as straightforward as that, looking at it.

If they are relegated any way then the -15 would apply next season. If they get past us and Barnsley, then the -15 would apply now, relegating them in the same way as Wigan a couple of seasons back.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Interestingly* the article by Alan Nixon suggests the deal may be rushed through as it is less than the EFL minimum amount for exiting administration.

This would see 15 points docked this season, which would relegate Derby immediately - they would be on 13pts - so could only get to 31.

They want to do this so they can start in L1 with a clean slate.

The position they are in now, you'd certainly want to take -15 today and start next season on 0 rather than risking getting relegated anyway and then starting in L1 on -15.

You would, but I don't think it is as straightforward as that, looking at it.

If they are relegated any way then the -15 would apply next season. If they get past us and Barnsley, then the -15 would apply now, relegating them in the same way as Wigan a couple of seasons back.

So in other words Derby are not to be feared unless they finish above us and do not find a buyer that will match the minimum EFL's amount.

[Hendo]

Interestingly* the article by Alan Nixon suggests the deal may be rushed through as it is less than the EFL minimum amount for exiting administration.

This would see 15 points docked this season, which would relegate Derby immediately - they would be on 13pts - so could only get to 31.

They want to do this so they can start in L1 with a clean slate.

The position they are in now, you'd certainly want to take -15 today and start next season on 0 rather than risking getting relegated anyway and then starting in L1 on -15.

You would, but I don't think it is as straightforward as that, looking at it.

If they are relegated any way then the -15 would apply next season. If they get past us and Barnsley, then the -15 would apply now, relegating them in the same way as Wigan a couple of seasons back.

I see, so basically they're oxf*rd.

[Stranded]

The position they are in now, you'd certainly want to take -15 today and start next season on 0 rather than risking getting relegated anyway and then starting in L1 on -15.

You would, but I don't think it is as straightforward as that, looking at it.

If they are relegated any way then the -15 would apply next season. If they get past us and Barnsley, then the -15 would apply now, relegating them in the same way as Wigan a couple of seasons back.

So in other words Derby are not to be feared unless they finish above us and do not find a buyer that will match the minimum EFL's amount.

They are to be feared more if the deal doesn't get done in the next month but they aren't really to be feared at all, unless we start to screw up again.

[Mr Angry]

If we were fans of Barnsley, Derby or Peterboro, and the only team any of us could catch win their game this evening so going 8 or 9 points ahead of us with only 6 or 7 games to go, we would say that we were relegated.

We win tonight, then those teams have an absolute mountain to climb to overtake us; its all well and good saying "well, if they win their next 3 games they go above us" buts that the point, isn't it? They haven't been good enough to win consistently over the whole of the season, so why should they start doing so now?

Having just checked, the only time this season that Barnsley have won back to back games was in late Feb, (though to be fair they did win 3 out of 4); Peterborough have only won back to back games once in late October; Derby won 3 on the bounce in mid/late December - but haven't won 2 on the bounce since.

In comparison, we have won 3 on the bounce once this season, in mid September, then 2 back to back wins on 2 other occasions - early/mid October (as part of the run where we actually won 5 out of 6 games) then the 2 games immediately after Pauno got the bullet in Feb.

In other words, of the bottom 4 we are the more likely to have a mini run of 2 wins on the bounce than any of the others.

[Snowflake Royal]

You would, but I don't think it is as straightforward as that, looking at it.

If they are relegated any way then the -15 would apply next season. If they get past us and Barnsley, then the -15 would apply now, relegating them in the same way as Wigan a couple of seasons back.

So in other words Derby are not to be feared unless they finish above us and do not find a buyer that will match the minimum EFL's amount.

They are to be feared more if the deal doesn't get done in the next month but they aren't really to be feared at all, unless we start to screw up again.

I'll repeat my long held view that if Derby finish above us it’s moot because we'll be 23rd, not 22nd.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

If we were fans of Barnsley, Derby or Peterboro, and the only team any of us could catch win their game this evening so going 8 or 9 points ahead of us with only 6 or 7 games to go, we would say that we were relegated.

We win tonight, then those teams have an absolute mountain to climb to overtake us; its all well and good saying "well, if they win their next 3 games they go above us" buts that the point, isn't it? They haven't been good enough to win consistently over the whole of the season, so why should they start doing so now?

Having just checked, the only time this season that Barnsley have won back to back games was in late Feb, (though to be fair they did win 3 out of 4); Peterborough have only won back to back games once in late October; Derby won 3 on the bounce in mid/late December - but haven't won 2 on the bounce since.

In comparison, we have won 3 on the bounce once this season, in mid September, then 2 back to back wins on 2 other occasions - early/mid October (as part of the run where we actually won 5 out of 6 games) then the 2 games immediately after Pauno got the bullet in Feb.

In other words, of the bottom 4 we are the more likely to have a mini run of 2 wins on the bounce than any of the others.

Agree with the point in principle however I do think as the season goes on and clubs are fighting for their lives more and more results tend to skew from the "norm" over the season. For example, if we play Blackburn and Bournemouth between Christmas and February, we probably get beat in both games, but it's a different type of fixture at the end of the season.

This is why I'd like to avoid the run in going until the last game of the season because anything can happen on that day, it's just a one off game. But I think a lot of clubs in the relegation fight view every game as a "one off game" to a degree, as they need points to survive and end up performing "above" where they actually are in the table.

That's not to say that any of them will get out of it, as stated, if we all supported the 3 clubs below us we'd be saying we were down, but nothing is decided at this stage. For example, even though somewhat unlikely, it could all change over the Easter weekend.

[Stranded]

If we were fans of Barnsley, Derby or Peterboro, and the only team any of us could catch win their game this evening so going 8 or 9 points ahead of us with only 6 or 7 games to go, we would say that we were relegated.

We win tonight, then those teams have an absolute mountain to climb to overtake us; its all well and good saying "well, if they win their next 3 games they go above us" buts that the point, isn't it? They haven't been good enough to win consistently over the whole of the season, so why should they start doing so now?

Having just checked, the only time this season that Barnsley have won back to back games was in late Feb, (though to be fair they did win 3 out of 4); Peterborough have only won back to back games once in late October; Derby won 3 on the bounce in mid/late December - but haven't won 2 on the bounce since.

In comparison, we have won 3 on the bounce once this season, in mid September, then 2 back to back wins on 2 other occasions - early/mid October (as part of the run where we actually won 5 out of 6 games) then the 2 games immediately after Pauno got the bullet in Feb.

In other words, of the bottom 4 we are the more likely to have a mini run of 2 wins on the bounce than any of the others.

Very much this. If we win tonight then we will a minimum of 3 games ahead of the bottom 3 with 6 (7 for Barnsley) to go. So essentially asking for 50% of results on remaining matchdays to go against us, if the same one of the bottom 3 better us each time.

Looking at recent form over 8 games (as most have 7 left) and it makes for pretty decent reading - in our 4 team league:

1. Barnsley W3 D3 L2 Pts 12
2. Reading W3 D2 L3 Pts 11
3. Derby W2 D1 L5 Pts 7
4. P'Boro W1 D2 L5 Pts 5

So based on that, Derby and Peterborough need to markedly improve - Derby have only clawed back 1 point on us over the past 12 games, so nearly quarter of a season. Whilst Barnsley need to maintain the current form (or better it) and hope we fall away.

We can't get cocky but if we find a way to win tonight, then we should be safe with a couple of games to spare esp if Barnsley fail to beat Peterborough.

[Stranded]

If we were fans of Barnsley, Derby or Peterboro, and the only team any of us could catch win their game this evening so going 8 or 9 points ahead of us with only 6 or 7 games to go, we would say that we were relegated.

We win tonight, then those teams have an absolute mountain to climb to overtake us; its all well and good saying "well, if they win their next 3 games they go above us" buts that the point, isn't it? They haven't been good enough to win consistently over the whole of the season, so why should they start doing so now?

Having just checked, the only time this season that Barnsley have won back to back games was in late Feb, (though to be fair they did win 3 out of 4); Peterborough have only won back to back games once in late October; Derby won 3 on the bounce in mid/late December - but haven't won 2 on the bounce since.

In comparison, we have won 3 on the bounce once this season, in mid September, then 2 back to back wins on 2 other occasions - early/mid October (as part of the run where we actually won 5 out of 6 games) then the 2 games immediately after Pauno got the bullet in Feb.

In other words, of the bottom 4 we are the more likely to have a mini run of 2 wins on the bounce than any of the others.

Agree with the point in principle however I do think as the season goes on and clubs are fighting for their lives more and more results tend to skew from the "norm" over the season. For example, if we play Blackburn and Bournemouth between Christmas and February, we probably get beat in both games, but it's a different type of fixture at the end of the season.

This is why I'd like to avoid the run in going until the last game of the season because anything can happen on that day, it's just a one off game. But I think a lot of clubs in the relegation fight view every game as a "one off game" to a degree, as they need points to survive and end up performing "above" where they actually are in the table.

That's not to say that any of them will get out of it, as stated, if we all supported the 3 clubs below us we'd be saying we were down, but nothing is decided at this stage. For example, even though somewhat unlikely, it could all change over the Easter weekend.

I agree that the closer you get to the end of the season the more freak results you get but the fact is no-one is chipping away at our lead, if anything we are extending it.

Before the round of games where we played Blackburn, we were 2 ahead of Barnsley and 6 ahead of Derby.

2 rounds later, we are now 5 ahead of Barnsley and still 6 ahead of Derby. With the chance to extend that further. In terms of our lead v Derby, a win tonight will make the gap larger than it was on the 1st March. Derby fans may talk positive but if we had just picked up 4 points from back to back home games and seen us make absolutely no dent on the lead of the team in 21st, we'd be resigned to relegation.

It feels like we are finding a level of form at the right time, a level that if we had produced for even a slither of 2022 would see us comfortably above the line and all talk here would be about next season.

We can't be complacent but it cannot be underplayed that tonight is a massive opportunity to drive home a massive advantage - at home to a team with nothing to play for, potentially missing their best player and on a terrible run of form away from home.

We just need to start fast for a change.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

If we were fans of Barnsley, Derby or Peterboro, and the only team any of us could catch win their game this evening so going 8 or 9 points ahead of us with only 6 or 7 games to go, we would say that we were relegated.

We win tonight, then those teams have an absolute mountain to climb to overtake us; its all well and good saying "well, if they win their next 3 games they go above us" buts that the point, isn't it? They haven't been good enough to win consistently over the whole of the season, so why should they start doing so now?

Having just checked, the only time this season that Barnsley have won back to back games was in late Feb, (though to be fair they did win 3 out of 4); Peterborough have only won back to back games once in late October; Derby won 3 on the bounce in mid/late December - but haven't won 2 on the bounce since.

In comparison, we have won 3 on the bounce once this season, in mid September, then 2 back to back wins on 2 other occasions - early/mid October (as part of the run where we actually won 5 out of 6 games) then the 2 games immediately after Pauno got the bullet in Feb.

In other words, of the bottom 4 we are the more likely to have a mini run of 2 wins on the bounce than any of the others.

Agree with the point in principle however I do think as the season goes on and clubs are fighting for their lives more and more results tend to skew from the "norm" over the season. For example, if we play Blackburn and Bournemouth between Christmas and February, we probably get beat in both games, but it's a different type of fixture at the end of the season.

This is why I'd like to avoid the run in going until the last game of the season because anything can happen on that day, it's just a one off game. But I think a lot of clubs in the relegation fight view every game as a "one off game" to a degree, as they need points to survive and end up performing "above" where they actually are in the table.

That's not to say that any of them will get out of it, as stated, if we all supported the 3 clubs below us we'd be saying we were down, but nothing is decided at this stage. For example, even though somewhat unlikely, it could all change over the Easter weekend.

I agree that the closer you get to the end of the season the more freak results you get but the fact is no-one is chipping away at our lead, if anything we are extending it.

Before the round of games where we played Blackburn, we were 2 ahead of Barnsley and 6 ahead of Derby.

2 rounds later, we are now 5 ahead of Barnsley and still 6 ahead of Derby. With the chance to extend that further. In terms of our lead v Derby, a win tonight will make the gap larger than it was on the 1st March.

It feels like we are finding a level of form at the right time, a level that if we had produced for even a slither of 2022 would see us comfortably above the line and all talk here would be about next season.

We can't be complacent but it cannot be underplayed that tonight is a massive opportunity to drive home a massive advantage - at home to a team with nothing to play for, potentially missing their best player and on a terrible run of form away from home.

We just need to start fast for a change.

Yeah agree with all that tbf.

[Weymouth Royal]

If we were fans of Barnsley, Derby or Peterboro, and the only team any of us could catch win their game this evening so going 8 or 9 points ahead of us with only 6 or 7 games to go, we would say that we were relegated.

We win tonight, then those teams have an absolute mountain to climb to overtake us.

Yep. Must be gutting to be a Derby or Barnsley fan tonight

[Snowflake Royal]

Best form in the bottom 6 now I believe.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

Best form in the bottom 6 now I believe.

Maybe true and a positive given where we are but what a sad thing to be happy about

[Snowflake Royal]

Best form in the bottom 6 now I believe.

Maybe true and a positive given where we are but what a sad thing to be happy about

Always good to have better form than the teams you're competing with.