The Snowball stat thread

[chilipepper91]

Thought Leeds were GREAT, God knows how they didn't score, but Saints march on.

A quietly effective system for Saints, reminded me of another promotion chasing team

Who Dat?

I think Saints have more flair, but sheesh they gave away a LOT of chances and robbed Leeds.


Bit nervous about our home game v leeds

Reading... very much a smash and grab (although they let Leeds have an insane amount of chances, on another day it could genuinely have been 5-1).

I'm looking forward to Leeds - will be good to see Warnock and Mills again.

[Snowball]

TV says Mills hasn't signed for Leeds

[Snowball]

Remember that the record-Breaking Reading side averaged 2.265 ppg over the whole season

We have been steadily improving throughout this run since Doncaster

Take a look at the average points achieved every 14 games (1-14, 2-15 etc)

Games-ppg

01-14 1.29 ppg - - 059 Point Season - - Mid Table
02-15 1.21 ppg - - 056 Point Season - - Low Mid Table
03-16 1.21 ppg - - 052 Point Season - - Low Mid Table
04-17 1.21 ppg - - 061 Point Season - - Low Mid Table
05-18 1.43 ppg - - 066 Point Season - - High Mid-Table
06-19 1.64 ppg - - 076 Point Season - - Play Off Position

07-20 1.64 ppg - - 080 Point Season - - Play Off Position From Doncaster Home Game Onwards
08-21 1.64 ppg - - 080 Point Season - - Play Off Position
09-22 1.79 ppg - - 082 Point Season - - 2nd/3rd
10-23 1.79 ppg - - 082 Point Season - - 2nd/3rd
11-24 1.93 ppg - - 089 Point Season - - Championship-Winning Form (This Season)
12-25 1.71 ppg - - 079 Point Season - - High Play-Offs
13-26 1.86 ppg - - 085 Point Season - - Championship-Winning Form, Possibly 2nd (This Season)
14-27 1.87 ppg - - 082 Point Season - - 2nd/3rd

15-28 1.93 ppg - - 089 Point Season - - Championship-Winning Form (This Season)
16-29 2.14 ppg - - 099 Point Season - - Championship-Winning Form (This Season)
17-30 2.14 ppg - - 099 Point Season - - Championship-Winning Form (This Season)
18-31 2.36 ppg - - 108 Point Season - - Record-Breaking Form Like 2005-06
19-32 2.36 ppg - - 108 Point Season - - Record-Breaking Form Like 2005-06
20-33 2.40 ppg - - 108 Point Season - - Record-Breaking Form Like 2005-06 (Up to Millwall Away)

What follows is just an illustration only, based on IF we win. Will be adjusted as necessary

21-34 2.57 ppg - - 118 Point Season - - Portsmouth H (63)
22-35 2.57 ppg - - 118 Point Season - - Leicester H (66)
23-36 2.57 ppg - - 118 Point Season - - Doncaster A (69)
24-37 2.57 ppg - - 118 Point Season - - Barnsley A
25-38 2.57 ppg - - 118 Point Season - - Peterboro A
26-39 2.79 ppg - - 128 Point Season - - Blackpool H

[JC]

It was stupid to merge the other threads into this. There are at least 3 diferent topics all muddled together which makes it difficult for old geezers like me to follow

[themadstad]

It shows it's quite important to pick up a lot of points still to achieve a 2nd spot finish. Probably going to need another 8 wins maybe more might be less. Look at the run in though.

[rob the royal]

what's our club record wins in a row?

[cmonurz]

what's our club record wins in a row?

13.

[Snowball]

It was stupid to merge the other threads into this. There are at least 3 diferent topics all muddled together which makes it difficult for old geezers like me to follow

I know, mate. God knows why they didn't just boot me as clearly they don't want the stats.

This, as you rightly point out, utterly ruins things for those who were interested.

Mob Rule wins.

[Snowball]

It shows it's quite important to pick up a lot of points still to achieve a 2nd spot finish. Probably going to need another 8 wins maybe more might be less. Look at the run in though.

84 will do it comfortably. 84 could win the top spot, if we win at Southampton

(Huge IF, I know. Right not I expect to lose there.)

[themadstad]

84, so are you expecting the top two to have a dip in form for the remainder?

[Snowball]

84, so you are expecting the top two to have a dip in form for the remainder?

I said a while back I thought Southampton would finish above West Ham.

If Saints maintain their average they'd get about 86

But, if you look carefully I said IF WE WIN THERE (hence they end with 83)
because they should be expecting to win their home games

This is from Statto, Statto's prediction in BOLD

But if we win at Saints (presuming they expect Saints to beat us)
then it would be RFC 84, West Ham 84, Saints 82.

Note that we are very much the highest-rated side in the league (underlined)

1 34 +30 65 4-2-0 830 85 Southampton
2 32 +19 61 3-2-1 837 84 West Ham
3 33 +15 60 6-0-0 843 81 Reading

4 34 +13 56 3-2-1 830 75 Blackpool
5 33 +06 56 3-2-1 816 75 Middlesbro
6 33 +21 55 2-3-1 830 75 Birmingham



Of course, if West Ham win in Cardiff...

[Snowball]

84, so are you expecting the top two to have a dip in form for the remainder?

West Ham have a really tough finish


A Cardiff We will see but this could easily be a defeat

H Watford Probable win, but no kick-in

H Doncaster WIN

A Leeds United Leeds are going to do a few soon and finish 6th/7th or thereabouts. LOSE

H Middlesbrough Very tough to beat side, very good defence. Draw?

A Burnley Very hard to win at Turf Moor

A Peterborough Possible win, but not an easy game

H Reading God knows, but our record is very good ATM

A Barnsley They could easily drop points at Barnsley

H Birmingham Birmingham may well be fighting for top or POs. Draw?

H Brighton Ditto

A Bristol Logically ought to be a big win

A Leicester LOSE

H Hull Tough game. Hull are VERY hard to beat. Draw?

[themadstad]

Though I feel our run looks tougher. We can't really afford a drop in form if this 2nd spot talk is serious.

[chilipepper91]

Though I feel our run looks tougher. We can't really afford a drop in form if this 2nd spot talk is serious.

Last four away games at promotion contenders, we can't forget it's not just us chasing the top two places. Looking at Southampton and West Ham's run-ins - as well as us (3rd), Southampton have Hull (9th), Blackpool (4th) and Middlesbrough (5th), while West Ham have Leeds (10th), Burnley (12th) and Leicester (11th). Ours will be more difficult than West Ham certainly, but Southampton's run-in is also pretty tough. The games between us are also "six-pointers" so either we directly harm or hinder West Ham/Southampton's chase, not only our own.

Reading's are Southampton (1st), West Ham (2nd), Birmingham (6th) and Brighton (7th)

[chilipepper91]

Note that we are very much the highest-rated side in the league (underlined)

1 34 +30 65 4-2-0 830 85 Southampton
2 32 +19 61 3-2-1 837 84 West Ham
3 33 +15 60 6-0-0 843 81 Reading

4 34 +13 56 3-2-1 830 75 Blackpool
5 33 +06 56 3-2-1 816 75 Middlesbro
6 33 +21 55 2-3-1 830 75 Birmingham

Not sure what the scale is, but 843 doesn't seem to be "very much" higher than 837, or 830? We're the best side at the moment but (genuine enquiry here) how did it look 3 games ago?

[themadstad]

Southampton won at Leeds last night with their keeper and defence doing excellently. Now they'll lose very little and with their attacking fret will win enough to remain in top 2.

[Snowball]

They were VERY lucky at Leeds.

You can't give away chances like that every game without, some day, getting a 3-0 thumping

But they have by FAR the easiest run-in and will probably be champions



H Ipswich Very good chance of a win, tho' Ipswich improving

H Barnsley Good chance of another win

A Millwall Very good chance of an away win

A Hull City Possible loss, but once Hull think the POs are too far off?

H Doncaster Should be 4-0 win

A Blackpool Blackpool are Jekyll & Hyde but Saints could lose here

H Portsmouth Should be a big win, but it is a derby Match, so...

A Crystal Palace Tough to win there, could lose

H Reading I think (ATM) that Saints will win this

A Peterborough Toughie but Saints could win

A Middlesbrough No win guaranteed at Boro

H Coventry Big win, but Coventry may need a result to stay up

[SydenhamRoyal]

84, so you are expecting the top two to have a dip in form for the remainder?

I said a while back I thought Southampton would finish above West Ham.

If Saints maintain their average they'd get about 86

But, if you look carefully I said IF WE WIN THERE (hence they end with 83)
because they should be expecting to win their home games

This is from Statto, Statto's prediction in BOLD

But if we win at Saints (presuming they expect Saints to beat us)
then it would be RFC 84, West Ham 84, Saints 82.

Note that we are very much the highest-rated side in the league (underlined)

1 34 +30 65 4-2-0 830 85 Southampton
2 32 +19 61 3-2-1 837 84 West Ham
3 33 +15 60 6-0-0 843 81 Reading

4 34 +13 56 3-2-1 830 75 Blackpool
5 33 +06 56 3-2-1 816 75 Middlesbro
6 33 +21 55 2-3-1 830 75 Birmingham

It's a big presumption that they are expecting Saints to beat us. If they rank us as better they might well be pointing it as a draw - leaving them a point clear of us. If everything else stays the same we end up 83 3rd to both of them on 84

[themadstad]

That's just it though, Southampton defend like that for remainder they won't concede much. They haven't conceded many all season. They just score plenty too and with the run in they'll finish in top 2.

West Ham are now 4 points ahead having played same amount of games. We would really need to keep up the winning rate. We would also have to beat both West Ham and Southampton can't see draws being enough.

[Snowball]

Note that we are very much the highest-rated side in the league (underlined)

1 34 +30 65 4-2-0 830 85 Southampton
2 32 +19 61 3-2-1 837 84 West Ham
3 33 +15 60 6-0-0 843 81 Reading

4 34 +13 56 3-2-1 830 75 Blackpool
5 33 +06 56 3-2-1 816 75 Middlesbro
6 33 +21 55 2-3-1 830 75 Birmingham

Not sure what the scale is, but 843 doesn't seem to be "very much" higher than 837, or 830? We're the best side at the moment but (genuine enquiry here) how did it look 3 games ago?

Here are the top few and the bottom 3. That's a very large lead when you consider Statto rates Reading
as much over West Ham as it does West Ham over Saints, Blackpool, Birmingham.



01 - 843 Reading
02 - 837 West Ham

03 - 830 Southampton
03 - 830 Blackpool
03 - 830 Birmingham

06 - 821 Cardiff
07 - 816 Middlesboro
08 - 815 Hull
09 - 806 Brighton
10 - 804 Leicester

22 - 775 Portsmouth
23 - 754 Coventry
24 - 752 Doncaster