The Snowball stat thread

[Snowball]

My view is this.

We are averaging 2.4 points a game over the last 15 games.

Put aside the three monster games at West Ham, Southampton and Birmingham.

We should expect "logically" 2.4 ppg from the other 10 ("easier") games.

IF we were to get those points (24) that would be 84 points (plus anything we get from the three biggies)

It will be amazing if we do manage that, but you have to imagine a MAJOR drop in form
to take us from 2.4 ppg to below 2.00 ppg. So think in terms of 2.00- 2.40 - ppg

If we manage 2 ppg (currently 2.4 ppg) we will be on 80 points PLUS anything we get from the big three.

[Snowball]

Table Since September 17th (Doncaster)



18 Most Wins

05 Least Defeats

56 Most Points

14 Most Clean Sheets

05 Equal Least Failed to Score

01 Games in Hand and Four Clubs

2.07 Highest Points Per Game

1.90 Second Best Goal Average. Saints 1.96, RFC 1.90, Birmingham 1.8,

1 27 17-5-05 . . . 14 Clean Sheets - 05 FTS - 38-20 +18 56 POINTS - 2.07 Reading
2 27 15-6-06 . . . 12 Clean Sheets - 06 FTS - 38-25 +13 51 POINTS - 1.89 West Ham United
3 28 14-8-06 . . . 11 Clean Sheets - 06 FTS - 47-24 +23 50 POINTS - 1.79 Southampton
4 28 13-9-06 . . . 10 Clean Sheets - 06 FTS - 45-25 +20 48 POINTS - 1.71 Birmingham City
5 26 12-7-07 . . . 12 Clean Sheets - 08 FTS - 28-20 +08 43 POINTS - 1.65 Hull City
6 28 12-9-07 . . . 06 Clean Sheets - 05 FTS - 49-39 +10 45 POINTS - 1.61 Blackpool
7 27 11-9-07 . . . 08 Clean Sheets - 05 FTS - 41-35 +06 42 POINTS - 1.56 Cardiff City
8 27 11-9-07 . . . 10 Clean Sheets - 10 FTS - 29-30 -01 42 POINTS - 1.56 Middlesbrough
9 28 12-6-10 . . . 07 Clean Sheets - 06 FTS - 41-38 +03 42 POINTS - 1.50 Leeds United

[themadstad]

Southampton look to have turned the corner after their dip. West Ham's win today was a big one for them and puts them 4 ahead.

West Ham to me look to have been pretty consistent with their points per game.

We really must avoid any dips in form, win 8 games and who knows but seeing 8 wins looks quite a task.

Of course if we kept up the 2.4 points per game until end we'd go up I should think but in no way will that happen, that'd be what 10 wins and a draw. That aside to go on a 2.4 point per game run on the 10 games. We'd need to look at getting 8 wins out of the 10 games. That will be hard enough now, there's teams finding form in there and banana skins too.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

They were VERY lucky at Leeds.

You can't give away chances like that every game without, some day, getting a 3-0 thumping

But they have by FAR the easiest run-in and will probably be champions



H Ipswich Very good chance of a win, tho' Ipswich improving

H Barnsley Good chance of another win

A Millwall Very good chance of an away win

A Hull City Possible loss, but once Hull think the POs are too far off?

H Doncaster Should be 4-0 win

A Blackpool Blackpool are Jekyll & Hyde but Saints could lose here

H Portsmouth Should be a big win, but it is a derby Match, so...

A Crystal Palace Tough to win there, could lose

H Reading I think (ATM) that Saints will win this

A Peterborough Toughie but Saints could win

A Middlesbrough No win guaranteed at Boro

H Coventry Big win, but Coventry may need a result to stay up

WE DON'T NEED A BIG FONT

[Snowball]

We?

[floyd__streete]

A Middlesbrough No win guaranteed at Boro [/size]

Phew, thanks for that excellent analysis there, was just about to put my life savings on an away win in this fixture.

[Snowball]

Thing is, over the last 15+ games, WE are averaging 2.4 ppg whereas the others are averaging
well under 2.0 ppg

This is since Dec 1st. Birmingham, for example have won just 8/17 games

1 14 11-0-3 9 20-07 +13 33 2.36 ppg - Reading
2 15 08-5-2 3 27-19 +08 29 1.93 ppg - Blackpool
3 14 07-4-3 8 13-06 +07 25 1.79 ppg - Hull City
4 14 07-3-4 5 18-17 +01 24 1.71 ppg - West Ham United
5 14 07-3-4 4 18-18 +00 24 1.71 ppg - Middlesbrough
6 17 08-5-4 6 30-14 +16 29 1.71 ppg - Birmingham City
7 15 07-4-4 6 18-13 +05 25 1.67 ppg - Brighton and Hove A
8 15 06-5-4 7 20-12 +08 23 1.53 ppg - Southampton

So, first things first, IF the next 13 games followed this pattern we would gain

-65 ppg on West Ham, (8 or 9 points)
.81 ppg on Southampton (11 points)

So, we have to LOSE form substantially, and/or West Ham and Saints have to IMPROVE

So how about the last six games?

1 6 6-0-0 . . . 5 Clean Sheets - 0 FTS - 09-1 +08 18 3.00 Reading
2 6 5-0-1 . . . 3 Clean Sheets - 1 FTS - 15-6 +09 15 2.50 Ipswich Town
3 6 4-2-0 . . . 5 Clean Sheets - 1 FTS - 11-1 +10 14 2.33 Southampton
4 6 3-3-0 . . . 3 Clean Sheets - 1 FTS - 09-4 +05 12 2.00 Brighton and Hove A
5 6 3-2-1 . . . 0 Clean Sheets - 0 FTS - 12-9 +03 11 1.83 Blackpool
6 6 3-2-1 . . . 1 Clean Sheets - 2 FTS - 10-7 +03 11 1.83 Middlesbrough
7 6 3-2-1 . . . 2 Clean Sheets - 1 FTS - 10-8 +02 11 1.83 West Ham United
8 6 2-4-0 . . . 4 Clean Sheets - 2 FTS - 08-3 +05 10 1.67 Crystal Palace
9 6 2-4-0 . . . 5 Clean Sheets - 3 FTS - 05-1 +04 10 1.67 Hull City

Based on the last six games but saying RFC will NOT maintain 3 ppg and drop that to 2.4 ppg

We would gain 4 points. 1 point ((2.4-2.33) x13) plus (hopefully) 3 points by winning at Doncaster.

But Saints really look good and might well beat us at their place, so what about West Ham?

Well on 15 game form, of form since December 1st, we should gain 8+ points on them
On last six form (DOWNGRADING our 3 ppg to 2.4 ppg) we should still gain 8 points.

Unless there is a very dramatic change in fortunes, VERY dramatic, we ought to take second off West Ham.
Even if they beat us at their place, we could still overtake them

Sure, one unlucky result, a couple of injuries or suspensions, and things can change, and as it gets
closer to the finish 1-2 defeats have a big effect, but right now I wouldn't put money on West Ham.

[Snowball]

A Middlesbrough No win guaranteed at Boro [/size]

Phew, thanks for that excellent analysis there, was just about to put my life savings on an away win in this fixture.

Your pointless troll is noted.

[floyd__streete]

A Middlesbrough No win guaranteed at Boro [/size]

Phew, thanks for that excellent analysis there, was just about to put my life savings on an away win in this fixture.

Your pointless troll is noted.

Not as pointless as your exclusive revelation that a win is not guaranteed at Boro.

[Snowball]

Not as pointless as your exclusive revelation that a win is not guaranteed at Boro.

It's just a casual remark meaning:

"That team will have to do particularly well to win at Middlesboro FC,
because Middlesboro FC are a very good side and difficult to beat, and
in fact the side visiting Middlesboro FC may only draw, and could in
fact LOSE to Middlesboro FC, unless the game is postponed, or there
is a third world war, or an outbreak of foot and mouth disease."

Have you nothing better to do than toss out spurious negative posts?

[floyd__streete]

Ah, so what you really mean is to say that there are a huge number of variables which may effect the outcome of a football match and that trying to analyse the likelihood of whatever points return may come from future matches is a largely pointless exercise?

You take yourself far too seriously m8, which is a little bit daft because no-one else does. Chill out. Have you had a nice weekend anyway?

[SydenhamRoyal]

[quote="Snowball"]Table Since September 17th (Doncaster)

[size=150]

18 Most Wins

05 Least Defeats

56 Most Points

14 Most Clean Sheets

05 Equal Least Failed to Score

[

Erm there's an error in the above. Given we have won 18 games in the league, and 1 of those, v Leicester, was before September 17th, that means, well I'll leave you to do the arithmetic

[Snowball]

Ah, so what you really mean is to say

I mean to say, "You are trolling."

that there are a huge number of variables which may effect the outcome of a football match
and that trying to analyse the likelihood of whatever points return may come from future matches is a largely pointless exercise?

Oh, mathter, ith that tho?

Bookies seem to do OK...

Have you had a nice weekend anyway?

None of your oxf*rd business

[Snowball]

Table Since September 17th (Doncaster)

[size=150]

18 Most Wins

05 Least Defeats

56 Most Points

14 Most Clean Sheets

05 Equal Least Failed to Score



Erm there's an error in the above. Given we have won 18 games in the league, and 1 of those, v Leicester, was before September 17th, that means, well I'll leave you to do the arithmetic

Transcription Error, my apologies. I clearly had the table with 17 below. Must have mistyped.

We still have more wins than any other club for that period.

18 Most Wins (oops)

1 27 17-5-05 . . . <<<<<<<<<<<<<

[Snowball]

After Millwall

Roberts Pairings

466 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt 5 Goals, 4 Assists
025 Minutes - Roberts-Le F. 1 Goals, 1 Assists
023 Minutes - Roberts-Chch 0 Goals, 0 Assists



6 Games, 6 Goals 5 Assists for Roberts Partnerships

078 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 1-0 Roberts (1) Hunt (0) Bristol Hunt Assist, Roberts Assist (Pen)

067 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 2-0 Roberts (1) Hunt (0) Coventry Roberts Assist (Kebe)
023 Minutes - Roberts-Chch W 2-0 Roberts (0) Chch (0) Coventry

090 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 1-0 Roberts (0) Hunt (1) Derby
076 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 1-0 Roberts (1) Hunt (0) Burnley
090 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 2-0 Roberts (0) Hunt (1) Middlesboro Roberts Assist (Le F.)

065 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 2-1 Roberts (0) Hunt (0) Millwall
025 Minutes - Roberts-Le F. W 2-1 Roberts (0) Le F. (1) Millwall Roberts Assist

514 Minutes - Roberts-Other W6 8-1

Goals:
3 Roberts
2 Hunt
1 Le Fondre

Assists:
4 Roberts
1 Hunt

[floyd__streete]

that there are a huge number of variables which may effect the outcome of a football match
and that trying to analyse the likelihood of whatever points return may come from future matches is a largely pointless exercise?

Oh, mathter, ith that tho?

Bookies seem to do OK...

Er, sorry? Is there an english translation available?

Bookies do ok because they rely on mugs like you with their sure-fire systems

Have you had a nice weekend anyway?

None of your oxf*rd business

[Snowball]

Getting desperate there, Floyd.


That really the best you can do?

[Maguire]

After Millwall

Roberts Pairings

466 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt 5 Goals, 2 Assists

6 Games, 6 Goals 3 Assists for Roberts Partnerships

078 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 1-0 Roberts (1) Hunt (0) Bristol No assists

Corrected for you

[Snowball]

After Millwall

Roberts Pairings

466 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt 5 Goals, 2 Assists

6 Games, 6 Goals 5 "Assists" for Roberts Partnerships

078 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 1-0 Roberts (1) Hunt (0) Bristol 1 Roberts 1 Major Contribution for winning Penalty

My Stats. I award what I award

[Snowball]

Maguire is confused, poor thing

I award a Major Contribution for winning a penalty. Shorthand - "Assist"

You don't like it, do your own stats


After Millwall

Roberts Pairings

466 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt 5 Goals, 4 Assists
025 Minutes - Roberts-Le F. 1 Goals, 1 Assists
023 Minutes - Roberts-Chch 0 Goals, 0 Assists



6 Games, 6 Goals 5 Assists for Roberts Partnerships

078 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 1-0 Roberts (1) Hunt (0) Bristol Hunt Assist, Roberts Assist (Pen)

067 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 2-0 Roberts (1) Hunt (0) Coventry Roberts Assist (Kebe)
023 Minutes - Roberts-Chch W 2-0 Roberts (0) Chch (0) Coventry

090 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 1-0 Roberts (0) Hunt (1) Derby
076 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 1-0 Roberts (1) Hunt (0) Burnley
090 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 2-0 Roberts (0) Hunt (1) Middlesboro Roberts Assist (Le F.)

065 Minutes - Roberts-Hunt W 2-1 Roberts (0) Hunt (0) Millwall
025 Minutes - Roberts-Le F. W 2-1 Roberts (0) Le F. (1) Millwall Roberts Assist

514 Minutes - Roberts-Other W6 8-1

Goals:
3 Roberts
2 Hunt
1 Le Fondre

Assists:
4 Roberts
1 Hunt