Perspective

[Snowball]

Our record against the others in this league is EXCELLENT = P20 W10 D7 L3 40-22 GD18 37 Points from 20 games = 1,85 ppg (Many of those WITHOUT Elwood

That means we ought to reasonably expect RFC to get 1.85 ppg in the next 16 games.

You'll probably accuse me of playing semantics again, but this doesn't ring quite right for two reasons. One is, the "others" are teams outside the top six, right? We only have fourteen games against them, not sixteen, plus Forest and Leeds once each, so the prediction is modestly watered down. The other reason is that there is no spell of ten games at any time this season where we have averaged more than 1.7 ppg; so it's a big ask that we might "reasonably expect" 1.85 from here on (or even 1.8 adjusted for point 1). What I would say is that our points against teams outside the top six gives us some relevant evidence about a return in that kind of range, but there are other factors that count against.

In the "how many points" thread, I voted 68. I'm sticking with that.

You're correct, that BASED ON THE SEASON SO FAR, we should only expect 1.85 ppg for 14 games plus whatever we have averaged against the top 6 for the other two.

However, I don't believe there's more than 1% of this list that doesn't think we are much improved when Elwood plays
and with him playing we are exceeding 2.0 ppg, and I really would expect that for 14 games at least.

Add in the fact that Long is so much better than in the first ten games.

We have some poor teams to play, Preston, Scunthorpe, both surely doomed, Sheffield United, a poor side, Coventry in free-fall, Derby ditto. Six games there with a great chance of 18 points (yes I know I'm tempting fate)

Now IF we can win these six games that takes us to 60 points plus 8 more games against lowly sides where we have averaged 1.85 ppg (plus the two good clubs)

I genuinely believe that if we can win tomorrow night and then home on Saturday we will go on a fantastic run, and at worst, be seventh. I concede that we might well "blow it" and fail to win at Sheffield. I would then consider our season over as I'm sure confidence would be shot to pieces. But win at Sheffield and then beat Watford & Millwall and it's game on again!


PS it's true that RFC haven't exactly averaged 1.7 ppg, but when Elwood has played they've done much better than that.

it's not unreasonable to think we can average 1.8 ppg to 2.1 ppg if Elwood maintains his form, isn't injured and avoids another suspension

[Snowball]

We've been outplayed very few times

QPR away, Norwich away?

We were totally in the games v Swansea, at Bristol, home to Scunthorpe, home to QPR

IMO a 1% swing in luck our way and we'd be second.

[bcubed]

On Luck.

A few hundred years ago I was a TV engineer and used to get a lot of free time
and I'd go watch Newport County training, got to know players and manager
very well.

We finished a season OK and then started the next getting loads of 1-0, 2-0 wins
and I was chatting to a few of the players about "How much better we were playing"

To a man they said they were playing WORSE than the previous season but they
were getting every bit of luck going and long may it continue.


On OUR Luck

I doubt very much if God has it in for any particular club, but OF COURSE one club
can fall foul of the odds. Ask any statistician. There is no law of averages. There is
no "law" that says because you concede four unlucky/dodgy penalties you will get
awarded four later in the season. Things "evening out" is BUNKUM, just like if there
have just been ten consecutive reds on a "straight" roulette wheel. It is still 50/50
that it will be red or black next spin.

Luck only partly equals errors. We have given away a lot of gifts this year and a week or so ago
I listed them and asked "Name the goals WE have been gifted."

Have WE had a dozy back-pass like Mills gave Norwich?
Has an opponent keeper kicked the ball up the ass of a defender for the ball to drop to Shane's feet (Forest)
Have we had a keeper kick the ball straight to Noel Hunt who then scores? (Cardiff)
Have we had a defender fail to do a routine shadow the ball out of play like Zurab at Preston?
Has an opposition player done what Harte did v Hull?

We have had a LOT of very good pens turned down, some blatant. Watford, Leeds, Norwich etc.

Have we got away with the same amount? I actually DO think we are a bit unlucky this season.

Very well put

[Svlad Cjelli]

And I still say that the karma gods still haven't finished paying us back for the outrageous run of good luck we had between 2005 - 2007.

[Hoop Blah]

It's not a swing in luck we needed Snowball, it's largely a change in composure in front of goal for a couple of months. I won't suggest who was the biggest culprit though...

bcubed, if we'd held on for a point against Norwich I've no doubt you and a lot of Norwich fans would've said we were lucky. In my eyes our keeper (a major part of our team) had a good game and it's his ability and not luck (plus perhaps some poor finishing to boot)that almost earned us a point.

The best team doesn't always win of course, but how you define best team probably slants your view. If the better team's centre forward misses chance after chance is that good luck for the opposition? Personally I'd say it's just poor play by the forward and of course they might be fortunate that they play them on his off day, but that's not luck as such, it's just the way the game goes that players have off days.

[weybridgewanderer]

i don't think that "luck evening itself out" over the season necessarily means you get good luck to compensate the "bad luck" you had earlier

It means other teams in games not involving you also have things go against them - the shot in the last minute that hit the post, over the line/not over the line etc,

[Svlad Cjelli]

I actually think a more realistic problem is one of mental discipline.

The fact that our whole central midfield is currently suspended shows there's something a little wrong, and we don't seem to be able to either keep our composure when we need to or maintain concentration right the end of matches - sucker-punch late goals are a sure sign of that. The inconsistency in the back 4 and the tendency to make silly mistakes is another sign of this for me.

Not sure what the problem is - whether its lack of experience, lack of leadership on the pitch (or captain is one of the most hot-headed of the lot!) or our senior players not setting a good example, but it's worrying. We are good enough as a team, but mentally we're not delivering.

[Snowball]

I actually think a more realistic problem is one of mental discipline.

The fact that our whole central midfield is currently suspended shows there's something a little wrong, and we don't seem to be able to either keep our composure when we need to or maintain concentration right the end of matches - sucker-punch late goals are a sure sign of that.

Well considering (up to 3 matches ago) we had not let in a single league goal in the last 16 minutes, I....

[Snowball]

We are good enough as a team, but mentally we're not delivering.

This, possibly. I've said for ages we need a warhorse/leader type (preferably also a great midfielder/defender who will get 10 goals a season and can cook)

[leicsRoyal]

The problem is purely and simply that we are an average championship side at present. There are a handful of good sides this season and a handful of bad ones, the rest are in the same boat as us, average.
Not sure of the exact stats but I'm pretty sure we haven't beaten any of the top 6 this season!

[bcubed]

It's not a swing in luck we needed Snowball, it's largely a change in composure in front of goal for a couple of months. I won't suggest who was the biggest culprit though...

bcubed, if we'd held on for a point against Norwich I've no doubt you and a lot of Norwich fans would've said we were lucky. In my eyes our keeper (a major part of our team) had a good game and it's his ability and not luck (plus perhaps some poor finishing to boot)that almost earned us a point.

The best team doesn't always win of course, but how you define best team probably slants your view. If the better team's centre forward misses chance after chance is that good luck for the opposition? Personally I'd say it's just poor play by the forward and of course they might be fortunate that they play them on his off day, but that's not luck as such, it's just the way the game goes that players have off days.

No, as I said before I thought we worth the draw, so I would have said well played that was a fair result, or something like that
As you imply it's all very subjective but my view was and remains so, that we were worth a point and with a smidgeon (1% - Snowball?) more luck, we would have held on

[Hoop Blah]

We didn't need a smidgen more luck, we just needed Harte to defend the back post in the dying moments of the game.

That's not down to luck.

[bcubed]

We didn't need a smidgen more luck, we just needed Harte to defend the back post in the dying moments of the game.

That's not down to luck.

My view is that we were worth a point and unlucky not to get it - that is all

[PEARCEY]

We didn't need a smidgen more luck, we just needed Harte to defend the back post in the dying moments of the game.

That's not down to luck.

My view is that we were worth a point and unlucky not to get it - that is all

If we had defended better at the end we would have got our point.

[Hoop Blah]

We didn't need a smidgen more luck, we just needed Harte to defend the back post in the dying moments of the game.

That's not down to luck.

My view is that we were worth a point and unlucky not to get it - that is all

I appreciate that, but I still don't see where any luck came into it. If you rely on 'luck' then your basically saying you're not good enough.

[bcubed]

We didn't need a smidgen more luck, we just needed Harte to defend the back post in the dying moments of the game.

That's not down to luck.

My view is that we were worth a point and unlucky not to get it - that is all

I appreciate that, but I still don't see where any luck came into it. If you rely on 'luck' then your basically saying you're not good enough.

I think decisions went against us as I said before and the run of the ball didn't go our way.

My point wasn't just about this game anyway, it's just that luck is a factor in the result of games

Some days players hit passes to perfection and some days the ball bobbles in front of them and they have mishits. A player who hits a pass 8 times out of 10 may have a day when he hits only 2 out of 10. This can happen whatever league you are in and however good the player - Isn't that bad luck? You could say it's mental or physical preparation but sometimes you can't put a finger on it - bad luck?

Supposing you have 65% possession and the opposition score 2 goals, both outrageous deflections from shots that weren't going in, wouldn't you say that the team that lost was unlucky?

[weybridgewanderer]

they could well consider themselves unlucky, but do the fans of the other team consider themselves lucky? i suspect not

yet the following week they will think they were unlucky when they hit the post in the last minute.

as I said, every set of fans cosniders themselves unlucky

[Hoop Blah]

I think decisions went against us as I said before and the run of the ball didn't go our way.

My point wasn't just about this game anyway, it's just that luck is a factor in the result of games

Some days players hit passes to perfection and some days the ball bobbles in front of them and they have mishits. A player who hits a pass 8 times out of 10 may have a day when he hits only 2 out of 10. This can happen whatever league you are in and however good the player - Isn't that bad luck? You could say it's mental or physical preparation but sometimes you can't put a finger on it - bad luck?

Supposing you have 65% possession and the opposition score 2 goals, both outrageous deflections from shots that weren't going in, wouldn't you say that the team that lost was unlucky?

I'd say that they weren't good enough to make the most of their 65% possession when it counted. There's no points awarded for keeping the ball or just creating chances, you have to be good enough to score more than the opposition.

I agree you might get some good fortune in isolated incidents, but that's quite rare and you do tend to make your own luck in any sport.

In your example of 2/10 and 8/10 passes, that's not luck, it's playing badly or having an off day.

[Ian Royal]

I'd only say they were unlucky if they had goals wrong fully ruled out or penalties incorrectly turned down as well as conceeding at least one really spawny goal.

Otherwise it's a case of shit sometimes happens and you set yourself up to be punished when you don't take your chances and make the most of your domination.

[weybridgewanderer]

We have to win at Sheffield United, for starters, then start winning our home games, basically all of them now. That's 69 points.

One extra away win, 72. It's still possible. But fail to win at Sheffield and all bets are off

So we failed to win at Sheffield

we are now 9 points behind 6th having played the same number of games.

You seem to have given up on automatic promotion.

What are your views on making the play offs now?