Final 12 Games

[Snowball]

And NOW we need... (Fourth Column)


1.58 1.73 1.60 1.90 (Game in Hand) QPR (RFC Position very slightly worse but who cares)
1.17 1.00 0.90 0.90 (Game in Hand) Swansea (RFC Position greatly improved)
1.08 0.91 0.70 0.70 Equal Games Cardiff (No Change)
0.92 0.82 0.90 0.90 Equal Games Norwich (No Change)
0.92 0.73 0.50 0.60 Game in Hand Forest (Position GREATLY Improved
0.50 0.55 0.60 0.70 Game in Hand Leeds (Position Greatly Improved)
0.17 0.18 0.20 0.20 Caught up 1 Game Burnley (Position Greatly Improved)
0.08 0.09 0.00 0.10 Game in Hand Hull (RFC Position marginally worse)
0.33 0.09 0.00 0.10 Game in Hand Leicester (RFC Position marginally worse)

If we win our Game in Hand (Home to Preston) 1-0

1.58 1.73 1.60 1.78 QPR

1.17 1.00 0.90 0.60 Swansea
0.92 0.73 0.50 0.33 Forest
0.50 0.55 0.60 0.44 Leeds

0.08 0.09 0.00 + 2 Points + 14 Goals Hull
0.33 0.09 0.00 + 2 Points + 17 Goals Leicester


Provided we win against Preston Leeds and Forest look very catchable
(if we draw with them both).. If we beat either, it's now MASSIVE

Would mean (8 games) besides.we'd need to gain

0.92 0.73 0.50 0.00 Forest
0.50 0.55 0.60 0.13 Leeds

[No Hoops]

A great day results wise. Lets hope tomorrow is the same.

[Wycombe Royal]

I have no idea what all those numbers mean. Ever thought of making them a bit clearer to understand? This is a football forum, not a thesis for a degree......

[Snowball]

Wyc, when I was talking points gap, someone decided points gap was not
a sensible way, because (for example) our PG to QPR might remain the same
but the number of games left to CLOSE the gap decreases.


Crude example.

6 Points behind with 30 games to go? No problem
6 Points behind with 10 games to go. Tough
6 Points behind with 02 games to go. Miracle required.

Our POINTS-GAIN-REQUIRED-per-game is what the figures
above are all about.

if we were not playing away to Forest and Leeds then we'd just be thinking averages.

Talk Forest for example (If we weren't playing them). Presume we win out Game in Hand
then we have 9 Games to catch them (3 points). If they average 2 points per game we have
to average 2.33, that is getting 21 points in 9 games (7 wins)

But if we average 2 ppg (18 points) and they only get 15 in 9 (1.67ppg) W4 D3 L2 we catch them

Their last 9 results

A 1-1 QPR
A 0-1 Scunthorpe
H 2-1 Cardiff
H 2-2 Preston
A 0-0 Millwall
A 1-1 Middlesbrough
H 0-1 Hull
A 1-2 Sheffield Utd
H 0-0 Doncaster

P9 W1 D5 L3 8 Points 7-9

If they do that from now until the end of the season they finish on 68, no chance.


Of course we have to go there too. The averages pale into insignificance if either side wins that game

[Snowball]

5/4 games ago we had a very slim chance.

Now we have played 4 and the rest 5, suddenly we have both Leeds AND Forest
in our sights, and if Swansea keep dropping points, them too... and Burnley
did themselves no favours today. Not only did they drop three points but
-3 on their GD could matter after the last game.


It's never over 'till it's over

[papereyes]

Wyc, when I was talking points gap, someone decided points gap was not
a sensible way, because (for example) our PG to QPR might remain the same
but the number of games left to CLOSE the gap decreases.


Crude example.

6 Points behind with 30 games to go? No problem
6 Points behind with 10 games to go. Tough
6 Points behind with 02 games to go. Miracle required.

Our POINTS-GAIN-REQUIRED-per-game is what the figures
above are all about.

if we were not playing away to Forest and Leeds then we'd just be thinking averages.

Talk Forest for example (If we weren't playing them). Presume we win out Game in Hand
then we have 9 Games to catch them (3 points). If they average 2 points per game we have
to average 2.33, that is getting 21 points in 9 games (7 wins)

But if we average 2 ppg (18 points) and they only get 15 in 9 (1.67ppg) W4 D3 L2 we catch them

Their last 9 results

A 1-1 QPR
A 0-1 Scunthorpe
H 2-1 Cardiff
H 2-2 Preston
A 0-0 Millwall
A 1-1 Middlesbrough
H 0-1 Hull
A 1-2 Sheffield Utd
H 0-0 Doncaster

P9 W1 D5 L3 8 Points 7-9

If they do that from now until the end of the season they finish on 68, no chance.


Of course we have to go there too. The averages pale into insignificance if either side wins that game

RoyalChiu used the Magic number from US sports a few seasons back which seemed to be a lot clearer.

Simply put - we now have a game in hand. That puts us within 3 points of the playoffs, and then that's a good week. If we play a playoff side and win, or they play each other, then that's better.

[brendywendy]

w(FAC)
W
W
W
w(FACQF)
W
W
W
W
w(FACSF)
W
W
W
W
W
w(FACF)
W(POSF)
W(POF)

you mark my words people!

W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W(POSF)
W(POF)

[andrew1957]

Looking at all the games that the team around us have to play in the next three weeks I think that if we win all three games against Barnsley, Pompey and Preston that there is a very good chance that we will be in the top 6 - or if not only a point outside the play off places.

It looks very much game one for the play offs now and possibly even an outside chance of second place.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

when I was talking points gap, someone decided points gap was not
a sensible way, because (for example) our PG to QPR might remain the same
but the number of games left to CLOSE the gap decreases.


Crude example.

6 Points behind with 30 games to go? No problem
6 Points behind with 10 games to go. Tough
6 Points behind with 02 games to go. Miracle required.

Our POINTS-GAIN-REQUIRED-per-game is what the figures
above are all about.

RoyalChi used the Magic number from US sports a few seasons back which seemed to be a lot clearer.

Like Johnnie Cochran goading Chris Darden into having O.J. try on the glove, you really are gon' make me do this --aren't you

Fine --after Tueserz' mini-programme of rearranged fixtures, then (I could do it in 20 minutes now, with most of that spent typing it up and proofreading, but I reckon it can w8)

[weybridgewanderer]

Looking at all the games that the team around us have to play in the next three weeks I think that if we win all three games against Barnsley, Pompey and Preston that there is a very good chance that we will be in the top 6 - or if not only a point outside the play off places.

It looks very much game one for the play offs now and possibly even an outside chance of second place.

having already won 2, winning these 3 would mean we win 5 on the bounce and would show a remarkable change in our levels of consistency that should merit a play off place.

Any team in the pack putting that sort of run together now would be making huge push for the play offs

[Schards#2]

Only scanned this but don't Snowball's reams of figures boil down to :

If we win shit loads of games we'll be in the play offs, if we don't we won't.

[Ian Royal]

If you consider shit loads to be 8 then yes, I believe so.

[Snowball]

Only scanned this but don't Snowball's reams of figures boil down to :

If we win shit loads of games we'll be in the play offs, if we don't we won't.

If we win 8 out of 10 and lose away to Forest and Leeds we might still not make it.

[Snowball]

Looking at all the games that the team around us have to play in the next three weeks I think that if we win all three games against Barnsley, Pompey and Preston that there is a very good chance that we will be in the top 6 - or if not only a point outside the play off places.

It looks very much game one for the play offs now and possibly even an outside chance of second place.

having already won 2, winning these 3 would mean we win 5 on the bounce and would show a remarkable change in our levels of consistency that should merit a play off place.

Any team in the pack putting that sort of run together now would be making huge push for the play offs

But we have steadily improved, Elwood is still unbeaten in the league, two VG home wins, first club to score at Palace in 3 months, and a brilliant win at Ipswich.

Man C was not exactly bad either. IMO if we can win at Barnsley we could REALLY go wild because
we then have two home games. The key is Barnsley IMO

[Victor Meldrew]

Looking at all the games that the team around us have to play in the next three weeks I think that if we win all three games against Barnsley, Pompey and Preston that there is a very good chance that we will be in the top 6 - or if not only a point outside the play off places.

It looks very much game one for the play offs now and possibly even an outside chance of second place.

Andrew,
I think I preferred it when you were depressed.
It looks as though the tablets are working as you have now gone completely OTT-there is no way we will get second spot this season.
I think you are suffering from snowballoverconfidentand persuadingyourselfthatif you printenoughfiguresthensomethingwillberightitis.

[Snowball]

Victor you forget that QPR could yet be relegated, or could be zapped 20+ points

Suddenly (should that happen) we are 9 points of TOP with a game in hand

Also, if QPR did end up being relegated and their results expunged, we'd lose two losses
whereas other clubs would lose wins and draws.

It's a huge IF, but if we win at Barnsley, we have two home games before visiting Forest. Be VERY interesting, then

[Snowball]

Victor, what points and final position are YOU predicting?

[Victor Meldrew]

Victor, what points and final position are YOU predicting?

I'm afraid I am more of a football man than a prophet so I'll happily "take each game as it comes" .
I gave up doing the "If" calculations that you like to do when I was about eleven years of age.

[andrew1957]

Looking at all the games that the team around us have to play in the next three weeks I think that if we win all three games against Barnsley, Pompey and Preston that there is a very good chance that we will be in the top 6 - or if not only a point outside the play off places.

It looks very much game one for the play offs now and possibly even an outside chance of second place.

Andrew,
I think I preferred it when you were depressed.
It looks as though the tablets are working as you have now gone completely OTT-there is no way we will get second spot this season.
I think you are suffering from snowballoverconfidentand persuadingyourselfthatif you printenoughfiguresthensomethingwillberightitis.

Victor

My main concern this season has been that we get promoted - hence why I was so ****** off that we let Gylfi go. I have always supported Brian however and think he has done a stellar job.

I don't think we "should" have been in contention this year - but the top teams all have to play each other and so despite everything we do still have a slim chance of promotion this season.

And the pills are starting to work...........

[Ian Royal]

welcome back to the light side brother.