MATCHWATCH : Oxford United (a)

[skipper]

. How did the away end sound from where you were?

Loud! We were predictably quiet after the goal, but generally very loud. I was impressed. The team seem to vibe it.

Quite enjoyed the game really.

The over policing was weird. Because we got straight on the first bus and were joined by Royals immediately. I thought the police were there to seperate fans??

[Clyde1998]

Special mention for the 2 blokes in the tree watching the match for free, the mound in the "gap stand" gives free viewing.

Not the clearest image unfortunately:


I think there were close to twenty at the peak.

The guy who climbed highest up the tree looked like he had some difficulty getting down, but managed it without assistance.

[RG30]

Worst Reading team in 25+ years and they still failed to beat us twice this season

[LWJ]

Worst Reading team in 25+ years and they still failed to beat us twice this season

+1

[Sutekh]

Worst Reading team in 25+ years and they still failed to beat us twice this season

+1

Be fair, they did score more than Reading over the two games.

[Brogue]

Only 1 defeat in our last 10 league games. First time we’ve achieved that since august - October 2015

[Sutekh]

Only 1 defeat in our last 10 league games. First time we’ve achieved that since august - October 2015

That run eventually stretched to 1 league defeat (home v Derby) in 11 although there was a loss to Everton in the LC in there too! Then THAT Fulham game happened and the wheels fell off.

[Millsy]

Amazing pacey run back from Wifi.

Absolutely great.

Who is Wifi?

It’s a nickname used for Ehibhatioman. I believe originating from a Millwall fan or journalist or someone after our 4-0 thrashing of them saying they were “beaten by a Wi-Fi password”.

[rfc8]

2-2-1 in 2024 so far, 17 games to go, keep our nerve and stay up...

[WestYorksRoyal]

Only 1 defeat in our last 10 league games. First time we’ve achieved that since august - October 2015

Only 3 wins though, which are key in pulling us up the table. But I'd say we're winning the games we should be and picking up games from tougher fixtures, including beating Derby. If you look at the draws in the run, you would class them all as acceptable results, though we absolutely should have beaten Lincoln on the balance of the game.

We have a few more coming up in the "should win" column. Charlton, Port Vale and Shrewsbury at home, while Fleetwood and Carlisle away are as winnable away games as you get. 4 wins from those 5 and we'll be out of the relegation zone for sure.

Win the "should win" games and continue picking up points elsewhere and we'll be fine. I worry about fatigue in February though with our volume of fixtures and small squad. I'd almost be tempted to chuck our game at Pompey, though I don't expect us to.

[rfc8]

^^^^
Concern might be more points deductions but not much we can do about that.

[WestYorksRoyal]

^^^^
Concern might be more points deductions but not much we can do about that.

I'd be surprised if the HMRC hearing results in a hefty points deduction. No club has had a deduction for this before, and I think the EFL are now in a position where they see the club as a victim of the owner. They don't make the final decision, but obviously the strength of punishment they push for has a big impact. I'd expect a suspended sentence or 1 point deduction with more suspended instead of going in hard. Though they may require a 125% deposit, and we know Dai never pays them.

[Stranded]

Only 1 defeat in our last 10 league games. First time we’ve achieved that since august - October 2015

Only 3 wins though, which are key in pulling us up the table. But I'd say we're winning the games we should be and picking up games from tougher fixtures, including beating Derby. If you look at the draws in the run, you would class them all as acceptable results, though we absolutely should have beaten Lincoln on the balance of the game.

We have a few more coming up in the "should win" column. Charlton, Port Vale and Shrewsbury at home, while Fleetwood and Carlisle away are as winnable away games as you get. 4 wins from those 5 and we'll be out of the relegation zone for sure.

Win the "should win" games and continue picking up points elsewhere and we'll be fine. I worry about fatigue in February though with our volume of fixtures and small squad. I'd almost be tempted to chuck our game at Pompey, though I don't expect us to.

3 wins and 6 draws in 10 games is 15 points or 1.5 PPG though - if we can keep that sort of average going (which over the season is probably worth about a 10th place finish) then we should reach 54/55 points. That should keep us up comfortably.

Interestingly* if you take the current 10 game form for all teams and extrapolate over the rest of the season, The following happens:

Promoted

Derby & Peterborough

Play-offs
Bolton, Stevenage, Pompey & Barnsley

15th: Reading (54 points)

Relegated
Cheltenham, Charlton, Fleetwood, Carlisle

We would finish 11 points clear of the drop.

[Snowflake Royal]

We should probably expect a bit of a regression to mean at some point.

Just as we weren't as bad as 1 point in 8, we're not as good as 1 defeat in 10.

We've seen endlessly under Dai, and before, that we are far more able to sustain poor form than good form over longer periods.

[Stranded]

We should probably expect a bit of a regression to mean at some point.

Just as we weren't as bad as 1 point in 8, we're not as good as 1 defeat in 10.

We've seen endlessly under Dai, and before, that we are far more able to sustain poor form than good form over longer periods.

Agreed but also in our last 15 games we are W5 D7 L3 - so 22pts from 15 or 1.46 PPG - that is sustained over a period covering more than half the league games we have played.

At some point, you have to say this side is just good enough to be picking up between 1.4 and 1.5 pts per game and that the only reason we are anywhere near the relegaton conversation is that awful run in the first quarter of the campaign.

[WestYorksRoyal]

We should probably expect a bit of a regression to mean at some point.

Just as we weren't as bad as 1 point in 8, we're not as good as 1 defeat in 10.

We've seen endlessly under Dai, and before, that we are far more able to sustain poor form than good form over longer periods.

Agreed but also in our last 15 games we are W5 D7 L3 - so 22pts from 15 or 1.46 PPG - that is sustained over a period covering more than half the league games we have played.

At some point, you have to say this side is just good enough to be picking up between 1.4 and 1.5 pts per game and that the only reason we are anywhere near the relegaton conversation is that awful run in the first quarter of the campaign.

Also, we had good runs which didn't last under Pauno and Ince but they were in the Championship. It has surprised me how much worse L1 is, obviously you would expect a drop off but the gulf is vast aside from a tiny overlap of 2 or 3 sides in each division. When Ince had us top as the start of last season, we all knew there was no way we'd keep it up. Whereas I see no reason why we can't keep this going because our opponents are at least as bad as us, and the shock is how we did so badly until November.

[Snowflake Royal]

We should probably expect a bit of a regression to mean at some point.

Just as we weren't as bad as 1 point in 8, we're not as good as 1 defeat in 10.

We've seen endlessly under Dai, and before, that we are far more able to sustain poor form than good form over longer periods.

Agreed but also in our last 15 games we are W5 D7 L3 - so 22pts from 15 or 1.46 PPG - that is sustained over a period covering more than half the league games we have played.

At some point, you have to say this side is just good enough to be picking up between 1.4 and 1.5 pts per game and that the only reason we are anywhere near the relegaton conversation is that awful run in the first quarter of the campaign.

Yeah, I'm probably a bit pessimistic after previous false dawns. 1.5 odd ppg is absolutely where this squad should be over a season.

More next season with a similar squad. If we exist.

[URZZZZ]

We should probably expect a bit of a regression to mean at some point.

Just as we weren't as bad as 1 point in 8, we're not as good as 1 defeat in 10.

We've seen endlessly under Dai, and before, that we are far more able to sustain poor form than good form over longer periods.

Agreed but also in our last 15 games we are W5 D7 L3 - so 22pts from 15 or 1.46 PPG - that is sustained over a period covering more than half the league games we have played.

At some point, you have to say this side is just good enough to be picking up between 1.4 and 1.5 pts per game and that the only reason we are anywhere near the relegaton conversation is that awful run in the first quarter of the campaign.

Also, we had good runs which didn't last under Pauno and Ince but they were in the Championship. It has surprised me how much worse L1 is, obviously you would expect a drop off but the gulf is vast aside from a tiny overlap of 2 or 3 sides in each division. When Ince had us top as the start of last season, we all knew there was no way we'd keep it up. Whereas I see no reason why we can't keep this going because our opponents are at least as bad as us, and the shock is how we did so badly until November.

Really don’t think the Championship is all that either in honesty. Aside from the three relegated teams, there doesn’t seem to be too much quality there. Of the three promoted teams last season, Ipswich have been in the top 6 all season and Plymouth are more than holding their own. Sheffield struggling but they’re another awfully run club. The real jump is from the Championship to the Prem, which is why you keep getting the same teams going up and down!

Makes a mockery of Ince considering how negative he set his team up through the season, even against some really average sides. If anything encapsulates the last few months of his tenure, it was the players strolling around the pitch like there was no care in the world in the 90th minute against a very poor Birmingham side in what was IMO, a must win game. We fell into the bottom three that day and never climbed out again

[YorkshireRoyal99]

We should probably expect a bit of a regression to mean at some point.

Just as we weren't as bad as 1 point in 8, we're not as good as 1 defeat in 10.

We've seen endlessly under Dai, and before, that we are far more able to sustain poor form than good form over longer periods.

Agreed but also in our last 15 games we are W5 D7 L3 - so 22pts from 15 or 1.46 PPG - that is sustained over a period covering more than half the league games we have played.

At some point, you have to say this side is just good enough to be picking up between 1.4 and 1.5 pts per game and that the only reason we are anywhere near the relegaton conversation is that awful run in the first quarter of the campaign.

Yeah, I'm probably a bit pessimistic after previous false dawns. 1.5 odd ppg is absolutely where this squad should be over a season.

More next season with a similar squad. If we exist.

I just think we have also become a harder team to beat in general really. We aren't getting blown away in games, defensively we have improved significantly, although far from perfect and in general we do stay in games. Since a really bad run in November where we did suffer some shocking defeats, it does seem as if we've got some little things that have gone more in our favour. A threatening striker always helps, but Wing came back into the side consistently, Azeez and Knibbs' form picked up and we began to put together a settled side.

Agree with Ady Williams to an extent, you can't draw your way out of a relegation fight, but out of the draws we've had in recent games, they haven't been bad points to pick up either. Oxford and Peterborough are up there, Leyton Orient were probably also a "better" opponent than a lot of others we've faced etc.

[Stranded]

Agreed but also in our last 15 games we are W5 D7 L3 - so 22pts from 15 or 1.46 PPG - that is sustained over a period covering more than half the league games we have played.

At some point, you have to say this side is just good enough to be picking up between 1.4 and 1.5 pts per game and that the only reason we are anywhere near the relegaton conversation is that awful run in the first quarter of the campaign.

Yeah, I'm probably a bit pessimistic after previous false dawns. 1.5 odd ppg is absolutely where this squad should be over a season.

More next season with a similar squad. If we exist.

I just think we have also become a harder team to beat in general really. We aren't getting blown away in games, defensively we have improved significantly, although far from perfect and in general we do stay in games. Since a really bad run in November where we did suffer some shocking defeats, it does seem as if we've got some little things that have gone more in our favour. A threatening striker always helps, but Wing came back into the side consistently, Azeez and Knibbs' form picked up and we began to put together a settled side.

Agree with Ady Williams to an extent, you can't draw your way out of a relegation fight, but out of the draws we've had in recent games, they haven't been bad points to pick up either. Oxford and Peterborough are up there, Leyton Orient were probably also a "better" opponent than a lot of others we've faced etc.

Over the last 10 games, Orient are a top 4 side - over the last 6 games, they are the best side in the division - it was a good point, the only disappointment there is we played so well in the first half that we should have had a couple and Orient's only goal came from a brain fart moment giving them a penalty.

Agreed the draws in isolation have been good results - 2 draws v Oxford (local derby), draw at Peterborough (4th in home record table), draw with Orient as mentioned. Even Cheltenham having been 2 down was a decent result.

The issue for me still remains winning games away from home - we've still only managed 1 win in 14 away games and our run in away is (position in brackets)

Stevenage (6th)
Fleetwood (23rd)
Pompey (1st)
Carlisle (24th)
Derby (2nd)
Bristol Rovers (10th)
Bolton (3rd)
Barnsley (5th)
Burton (18th)

So 5 of the current top 6 to play and the bottom 2 - we need to find a way to actually win away and whilst you pick out the Fleetwood, Carlisle & Burton games as the ones to target - the longer we go without another away win, the more the pressure could and will crank up at home.