Snowball I AM chilled out.
It's not MY fault you are all wrong and I'm right on this.
Steve and I were talking on the phone and he agrees, "87 min"
It's 90 mins. BUT that doesn't account for added on time.
How many points will it take?
It's 90 mins. BUT that doesn't account for added on time.
Oh, and there's me thinking he meant 87 (points) minimum.
Here's one prediction:
If (IF) we win tomorrow night we'll win this league
Here's one prediction:
If (IF) we win tomorrow night we'll win this league
Just a thought on "statistics"
Bookmakers use statistics to set football odds
Bookmakers make profits. Punters lose
Bookmakers use statistics to set football odds
Bookmakers make profits. Punters lose
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Rex
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Blimey 
We will simply not know what form we or other teams are in come the end of the season. How many of us were convinced half way through the last game of that season that we would rely on staying in the Prem IF we had scored another 4 more goals over the season.
There are so many variables why we will get first / second or playoffs this season that it does not need an anal discussion on points tallies / goals scored or even games lost over the season.
Stats are only good on the last day of the season and used retrospectively.
On average we are scoring 1.6 goals per away game. This also means nothing.
Injuries, dynamics of the team, the balls out desire of another team wanting the win, transfers, loan signings, management dismissals all add to this variable.
We will simply not know what form we or other teams are in come the end of the season. How many of us were convinced half way through the last game of that season that we would rely on staying in the Prem IF we had scored another 4 more goals over the season.
There are so many variables why we will get first / second or playoffs this season that it does not need an anal discussion on points tallies / goals scored or even games lost over the season.
Stats are only good on the last day of the season and used retrospectively.
On average we are scoring 1.6 goals per away game. This also means nothing.
Injuries, dynamics of the team, the balls out desire of another team wanting the win, transfers, loan signings, management dismissals all add to this variable.
loyalroyal4lifeTommy Youlden's Ears Gonna take a bit more than last season...
1 WBA 81
2 Stoke City 79
3 Hull City 75
think we are looking at least 10 points higher than that.
yeah 91 to win it, 89 should get second, agreed
Snowball Oh, and there's me thinking he meant 87 (points) minimum.
Here's one prediction:
If (IF) we win tomorrow night we'll win this league
Wow. So serious! Shall I? Why not... wwwhhhhoooooooOOOOOSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHH!!!!!
S09RoyalRawlie19 I'm bored.Snowball I'm rightCMRoyal Give me strength
We'll be promoted in April.
Yeah, but if we do it in "April", where's the real April gone? Surely that'll now be May, we've got 13 months in the year and you'd have to give 31 days to another year. And I win because I once won a degree in "How to Completely Miss the Point While Waffling on About Meaningless Statistics" in a cereal packet competition.
Snowball For Sheffield to have 82 points they must lose eight points.
Meaning in your fictional season
(a) they "drew" 4 games in your fictional season that they actually won in the real season
or
(b)they "lost" 8 games in your fictional season that they actually drew in the real season
in the case of (a) the chasing teams have an extra 8 points to share out!!
in the case of (b) the chasing teams have an extra SIXTEEN points to share out
The point is that when a side gets 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92 THEY KILL OTHER SIDES WHO LOSE POINTS.
In their 90-point season Sheffield WON 9 points against Watford-Preston-Leeds
BUT THEY TOOK 12 POINTS OFF THESE CLUBS in doing so!
For the last time, IT'S THEORETICAL. If you really want to do it strictly, yes you need to redistribute any "lost" 2nd place points. But as this is a THEORETICAL model, you would not take a LITERAL season, you would have to distribute those 8 (or however many) points amongst the rest of the clubs in the league. 8 points/46 matches with a sliding scale of probability as you go further up the league (2nd place being THEORETICALLY more likely to take points from weaker teams). So, yes feel free to weight the number slightly in favour of third place taking an extra point or two, but as we are taking a half dozen or so seasons and working out what's required to get automatic promotion, it's not going to have a significant effect on the average. Third place points+1 remains THEORETICALLY the best guide.
2nd place +1 point, unless WE are 2nd place (or 1st) in which case 3rd place +1 is fine.
Snowball I AM chilled out.
It's not MY fault you are all wrong and I'm right on this.
Steve and I were talking on the phone and he agrees, "87 min"
LOL, that's the minimum required to beat 3rd place in the last 5 (maybe more) seasons.
So, we disagree on the workings, but agree on the result.
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cmonurz
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Snowball makes me want to gouge my eyes out.
The only person using conjecture to put together their argument is Snowball himself. He is making the assumption that the points gap between second and third is a direct function of matches between clubs in that vicinity of the league table.
As I posted earlier - we might lose to Birmingham, but they might lose three further matches more than Reading by the end of the season, to teams not in the promotion picture. Further, our wins might take points off teams not fighting for promotion.
The fact is that in order to achieve promotion we need 1 point more than the team in third place. How we achieve that is an irrelevance - and can be achieved in hundreds of different ways.
The only person using conjecture to put together their argument is Snowball himself. He is making the assumption that the points gap between second and third is a direct function of matches between clubs in that vicinity of the league table.
As I posted earlier - we might lose to Birmingham, but they might lose three further matches more than Reading by the end of the season, to teams not in the promotion picture. Further, our wins might take points off teams not fighting for promotion.
The fact is that in order to achieve promotion we need 1 point more than the team in third place. How we achieve that is an irrelevance - and can be achieved in hundreds of different ways.
cmonurz Snowball makes me want to gouge my eyes out.
The only person using conjecture to put together their argument is Snowball himself. He is making the assumption that the points gap between second and third is a direct function of matches between clubs in that vicinity of the league table.
As I posted earlier - we might lose to Birmingham, but they might lose three further matches more than Reading by the end of the season, to teams not in the promotion picture. Further, our wins might take points off teams not fighting for promotion.
The fact is that in order to achieve promotion we need 1 point more than the team in third place. How we achieve that is an irrelevance - and can be achieved in hundreds of different ways.
Want to borrow a spoon?
YES, THIS season, after the last game we only need to be one point ahead of whoever is third.
In fact that's wrong, we can be on equal points with a better goal difference
I can count. I went to school.
But it is a total fallacy to think we need 1 more than the average third place of PREVIOUS seasons.
We need one more than the HIGHEST-EVER third place. NOT the average third place
And the answer to that is 87 Points.
Snowballcmonurz Snowball makes me want to gouge my eyes out.
The only person using conjecture to put together their argument is Snowball himself. He is making the assumption that the points gap between second and third is a direct function of matches between clubs in that vicinity of the league table.
As I posted earlier - we might lose to Birmingham, but they might lose three further matches more than Reading by the end of the season, to teams not in the promotion picture. Further, our wins might take points off teams not fighting for promotion.
The fact is that in order to achieve promotion we need 1 point more than the team in third place. How we achieve that is an irrelevance - and can be achieved in hundreds of different ways.
Want to borrow a spoon?
YES, THIS season, after the last game we only need to be one point ahead of whoever is third.
In fact that's wrong, we can be on equal points with a better goal difference
I can count. I went to school.
But it is a total fallacy to think we need 1 more than the average third place of PREVIOUS seasons.
We need one more than the HIGHEST-EVER third place. NOT the average third place
And the answer to that is 87 Points.
Give it up already! Promotion is still not guaranteed even if we do get 87 points, so this whole argument is pointless! At this stage, to guarantee promotion, we need 107 points (or 106 + a greater goal difference), as this will beat Birmingham's total if they were to go and win every game from now on. POINTLESS ARGUMENT!
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cmonurz
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Snowball, 87 points will not necessarily win us promotion.
The mathematical argument that secures promotion in any season is 'points total of 3rd place + 1 point'. That is a stone cold fact. Show me any regular season where 'points total of 3rd place + 1 point' does not result in automatic promotion.
The mathematical argument that secures promotion in any season is 'points total of 3rd place + 1 point'. That is a stone cold fact. Show me any regular season where 'points total of 3rd place + 1 point' does not result in automatic promotion.
cmonurz Snowball, 87 points will not necessarily win us promotion.
The mathematical argument that secures promotion in any season is 'points total of 3rd place + 1 point'. That is a stone cold fact. Show me any regular season where 'points total of 3rd place + 1 point' does not result in automatic promotion.
I can come up with at least one example of that.....
Statistically annoying.
This thread is getting a little boring and i get bored out of my socks reading statistics.
We'll be promoted in April, sometime. 
This thread is getting a little boring and i get bored out of my socks reading statistics.
We'll be promoted in April, sometime.
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Platypuss
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Snowball But it is a total fallacy to think we need 1 more than the average third place of PREVIOUS seasons.
Who has made that argument then?
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Platypuss
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Sun Tzucmonurz Snowball, 87 points will not necessarily win us promotion.
The mathematical argument that secures promotion in any season is 'points total of 3rd place + 1 point'. That is a stone cold fact. Show me any regular season where 'points total of 3rd place + 1 point' does not result in automatic promotion.
I can come up with at least one example of that.....
Unfortuantely 1994/5 wasn't a "regular" season.
Give it up already! Promotion is still not guaranteed even if we do get 87 points, so this whole argument is pointless! At this stage, to guarantee promotion, we need 107 points (or 106 + a greater goal difference), as this will beat Birmingham's total if they were to go and win every game from now on. POINTLESS ARGUMENT!
Perfect example of missing the point. If Birmingham WERE to get 106 we could only get 105!!
Because in getting their extra 52 they took 3 off us, lowering our maximum possible.
That's the bit nobody seems to be able to get.
But managers don't sit down and think, "If aliens landed" which is more likely that Birmingham even getting to 100 points.
In the same way as 40 points VIRTUALLY guarantees staying up in the Premiership
it's THEORETICALLY possible for every club to win 19 games and lose 19 games
and THREE clubs to go down with 57 points
But Prem managers know that 40 is almost guaranteed and that's the point.
In this league, any manager worth his salt, after guaranteed promotion looks at SECOND place and tries to match or beat that.
Yes, OF COURSE 87 points MIGHT not be enough, but the scenario would be extremely rare.
You could have 3, maybe 4 clubs on 87 and it come down to GD but common-sense says, what has been the worst-case in recent years?
84 failed, 85 failed, 86 failed, so if 87 also fails well that is really stinking luck... But 87 is the MINIMUM the good manager would aim at
Not this dumb 3rd +1
Perfect example of missing the point. If Birmingham WERE to get 106 we could only get 105!!
Because in getting their extra 52 they took 3 off us, lowering our maximum possible.
That's the bit nobody seems to be able to get.
But managers don't sit down and think, "If aliens landed" which is more likely that Birmingham even getting to 100 points.
In the same way as 40 points VIRTUALLY guarantees staying up in the Premiership
it's THEORETICALLY possible for every club to win 19 games and lose 19 games
and THREE clubs to go down with 57 points
But Prem managers know that 40 is almost guaranteed and that's the point.
In this league, any manager worth his salt, after guaranteed promotion looks at SECOND place and tries to match or beat that.
Yes, OF COURSE 87 points MIGHT not be enough, but the scenario would be extremely rare.
You could have 3, maybe 4 clubs on 87 and it come down to GD but common-sense says, what has been the worst-case in recent years?
84 failed, 85 failed, 86 failed, so if 87 also fails well that is really stinking luck... But 87 is the MINIMUM the good manager would aim at
Not this dumb 3rd +1
I can come up with at least one example of that.....
Well done, Sun once in the last seven years... a 14% chance of success.
Wouldn't you prefer 90% or 100%
Well done, Sun once in the last seven years... a 14% chance of success.
Wouldn't you prefer 90% or 100%
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