Snowballs statistics

[roberto_11]

In non-economics speak, the stats on Hunt and Kebe accounting for a lot of assists fails to take into account factors such as form, opposition and surrounding players. These factors, if included, could take some of the credit away from Hunt and Kebe. However an Economics graduate should know that these omitted variables are highly unlikely to have such a great impact that the initial findings that we can discredit the fact that Hunt and Kebe are simply two of our most creative players and best options on the wing. Even if the coefficient, i.e. the level to which Kebe and Hunt are responsible for creating our goals, is considerably lower than it was initially when we include all variables, so long as it is still positive there is evidence that they have been our two most creative players this season. I imagine the value would even be large enough that it could pass a test at the 1% significance level that it was accurate (i.e. we could be 99% sure that Hunt and Kebe had been our most creative players so far this season.)

Snowball's statistics cannot be written off on the basis of omitting certain factors. The truth is this is a football board, do you expect people to come up with a load of complicated equations and formulas before going into hypothesis testing? Of course bloody not. Keep up the stats Snowball. They don't tell the full story, but they certainly tell a significant part of it and start debate.

Well said. An excellent counter to the garbage contained in the opening post which has gone some say to restoring this old duffers faith in modern education.

Garbage how exactly Mr Old Duffer?

[PlasticRoyale]

Snowball you mentioned a book earlier on in this thread relating to the topic. Would you be kind enough to post the title/author again as i can't find (+ can't be arsed to trawl for) it. Thanks

[Snowball]

Snowball you mentioned a book earlier on in this thread relating to the topic. Would you be kind enough to post the title/author again as i can't find (+ can't be arsed to trawl for) it. Thanks

I've mentioned a few

You probably mean "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell. There's a lot of stuff in there about the difference between experts and lay-people in tasting tests... talks about going behind the locked door.

[Snowball]

This is this weekend's Championship

Home GD per game v Away GD per game. The bigger the positive difference, theoretically the more likely it is to be a home win

Of course the problem is the GD is an average for the season and some teams WERE bad and are now good, or vice versa

According to this the 3 banker homes are Cardiff, Birmingham, Palace

According to this the most likely away wins in order are Reading, Sheffield United, and possibly Swansea

Charlton, Wednesday, Derby, Blackpool are still positive, so home or draw?



0.88 0.50 1.38 Cardiff -v- Doncaster
0.61 0.53 1.14 Birmingham -v- Saints
0.41 0.50 0.91 Palace -v- Preston
0.35 0.82 0.47 Charlton -v- Watford
0.61 0.22 0.39 Wednesday -v- Wolves
0.35 0.03 0.32 Derby -v- Bristol
0.50 0.78 0.28 Blackpool -v- Norwich
0.22 0.29 0.07 Forest -v- Swansea
0.35 0.50 0.15 QPR -v- Sheff UTD
0.17 0.25 0.42 Plymouth -v- Reading

[Turns8]

This is this weekend's Championship

Home GD per game v Away GD per game. The bigger the positive difference, theoretically the more likely it is to be a home win

Of course the problem is the GD is an average for the season and some teams WERE bad and are now good, or vice versa

According to this the 3 banker homes are Cardiff, Birmingham, Palace

According to this the most likely away wins in order are Reading, Sheffield United, and possibly Swansea

Charlton, Wednesday, Derby, Blackpool are still positive, so home or draw?



0.88 0.50 1.38 Cardiff -v- Doncaster
0.61 0.53 1.14 Birmingham -v- Saints
0.41 0.50 0.91 Palace -v- Preston
0.35 0.82 0.47 Charlton -v- Watford
0.61 0.22 0.39 Wednesday -v- Wolves
0.35 0.03 0.32 Derby -v- Bristol
0.50 0.78 0.28 Blackpool -v- Norwich
0.22 0.29 0.07 Forest -v- Swansea
0.35 0.50 0.15 QPR -v- Sheff UTD
0.17 0.25 0.42 Plymouth -v- Reading

Watching the game > all these stats and facts and probability HTH

[CMRoyal]

Hey snowball, seen this:-

http://www.dectech.org/football_sites/f ... =60&aid=35

Along the lines of Daniel Finkelstein's Fink Tank, it predicts the liklihood of each outcome. 0-1 the most likely score tomorrow, only 15% though.

[Snowball]

Hey snowball, seen this:-

http://www.dectech.org/football_sites/f ... =60&aid=35

Along the lines of Daniel Finkelstein's Fink Tank, it predicts the liklihood of each outcome. 0-1 the most likely score tomorrow, only 15% though.

I quite like the odds of (1-0, or 2-0, or 2-1) (to us)


PS Ought to say I have NO IDEA if that GD comparison works for single games

[Ian Royal]

I give up, it's like talking to a brickwall.

[Millsy]

So to summarise, hes a retard

Absolutely.

Here's a tip. I was taught, "An insult from a fool is a compliment."

Thanks for the compliment.

I think it's unfair you suggesting the lad's a fool, who comically tries to use big words and pseudo-intellectual arguments to sound clever, who pounces on typos to both prove points and enhance the above, backing them up with totally unwarranted belligerence with fantastic and mature arguments like "you're a retard" to anyone who happens to have an opposing point of view with no mailce ever originally intended. You're bang out of order there, mister.

As he humbly says the chap's clearly way above us as he makes "intelligent" posts, knows "shit loads" about stuff, has done "a degree" and - wait for it - a "dissertation" (*swoon*): an incredibly eloquent and intelligent gent who's has managed all this on the back of a bargain basement 3k p.a. education putting the rest of us simpletons to shame and who incindentally hasn't been the cause of me actually laughing out loudly on HNA for the first time in ages on in the slightest...

Snowball, you "retard", you should realise that stats, even with a pinch of salt and the resultant decent thought provoking debates that follow every time, have absolutely no place in football analysis AT ALL and you are a disgrace for bringing them to this board of football geniuses. Apologies for using the lowest form of wit, but the matchless intellectual powers here are too great for me to bother doing otherwise. Time I left this pathetic thread. Have fun. (and please please don't stop your stats no matter what the self professed 'experts' say. I know I've openly disgreed with your interpretations but you've always been a well reasoned gentleman in response: a breath of fresh air. Your posts are very welcome, thanks!).

[glass half full]

8/10 cats, when interviewed, admitted to a feeling of discomfiture when faced with the words 'spastistics' and 'retards' in a thread on a compiler of statistics.

[Snowball]

This is this weekend's Championship

Home GD per game v Away GD per game. The bigger the positive difference, theoretically the more likely it is to be a home win

Of course the problem is the GD is an average for the season and some teams WERE bad and are now good, or vice versa

According to this the 3 banker homes are Cardiff, Birmingham, Palace HOME-HOME-HOME

According to this the most likely away wins in order are Reading, Sheffield United, and possibly Swansea (Three Draws)

Charlton, AWAY Wednesday, AWAY Derby, HOME Blackpool HOME are still positive, so home or draw?



0.88 0.50 1.38 Cardiff -v- Doncaster
0.61 0.53 1.14 Birmingham -v- Saints
0.41 0.50 0.91 Palace -v- Preston
0.35 0.82 0.47 Charlton -v- Watford
0.61 0.22 0.39 Wednesday -v- Wolves
0.35 0.03 0.32 Derby -v- Bristol
0.50 0.78 0.28 Blackpool -v- Norwich
0.22 0.29 0.07 Forest -v- Swansea
0.35 0.50 0.15 QPR -v- Sheff UTD
0.17 0.25 0.42 Plymouth -v- Reading

[Snowball]

I give up, it's like talking to a brickwall.

I wish