Long - Time to go.

[Wycombe Royal]

Is it just me, or have we been given considerably more penalties over the last couple of seasons than in previous years?

Yes we have. THere is a method to winning them, which Cardiff had perfected. When McDermott took over we opted a similar approach. Basically it involves breaking into the box at speed, mainly from the wider positions and drawing a tackle from the defender. All it takes is for the attacker to give the defender a slight opportunity to win the ball and then he will make the tackle and you go over him.

Shane Long seems to have perfected this, his penalty against Norwich being a prime example.

[Wycombe Royal]

I posted on that, extensively and showed that whenever he has had a GOOD run of starts he has scored well.

I was talking just about up to the 19th November which is what you based your comment on:

I think he's going to have a big season barring injuries. He's absolutely MILES ahead of any other season

0 League Goals - 0 Goals Total 19-November 2005
0 League Goals - 1 Goals Total 19-November 2006 (Liverpool, League Cup)
2 League Goals - 2 Goals Total 19-November 2007
1 League Goals - 0 Goals Total 19-November 2008
0 League Goals - 0 Goals Total 19-November 2009
4 League Goals - 4 Goals Total 19-November 2010 (Plus 2 International Goals)


So he has one goal more at today's date than he managed in 5 Seasons before this one!!

I'm just thinking that he has played a lot more minutes this season so it is no surprise he has more goals. But I don't know HOW many more minutes.

[Tony Le Mesmer]

Is it just me, or have we been given considerably more penalties over the last couple of seasons than in previous years?

Yes we have. THere is a method to winning them, which Cardiff had perfected. When McDermott took over we opted a similar approach. Basically it involves breaking into the box at speed, mainly from the wider positions and drawing a tackle from the defender. All it takes is for the attacker to give the defender a slight opportunity to win the ball and then he will make the tackle and you go over him.

Shane Long seems to have perfected this, his penalty against Norwich being a prime example.

indeed, and in keeping with the thread title, we have won considerably more penalties with Long on the pitch for a few years now. He clearly plays for them and is pretty good at it.

[Snowball]

2,056 Minutes = 3 Goals = A Goal every 685 Minutes (all the previous years up to Dec
1,278 Minutes = 4 Goals = A Goal every 320 Minutes (this season, with two weeks still to go)


And let's remember we have all been talking about this a a LEAN SPELL
yet he's scoring at better than twice the rate of previous seasons
(and has bagged two international goals, passed up on taking a penalty)


had he taken the pen that Harte pinched (and scored) he'd be on 1278/5 = a goal every 254 minutes
much better than that if you add in his 2 goals in 209 minutes for his country

1487 minutes for 6 goals = a goal every 248 minutes

Had he taken that Harte Penalty... 1487 minutes for 7 goals = a goal every 212 minutes.


So he's on 212-254 minutes IN A BAD PATCH! So it looks bright when his luck turns a little.

[Snowball]

Pens maybe, but seeing as Long in the one winning us the Pen in the 1st place, its the same as scoring. 4 Pens this year and Long has 'won' them all. Thats no less an effective contribution than scoring from open play.

I agree, and defenders will be wary now,
so he may get more open-play shots

[Wycombe Royal]

Snowball, can I just how good it is to be having this discussion in a civilised, mature way. I hope it continues.

[Snowball]

We know he's scored league goals against sides that didnt finish in the bottom 4 but don't you think its a pretty unusual statistic for someone to have scored such a high percentage of his league goals against such a small percentage of his overall opponents?

Not really, Vision

Two possible reasons.

1. Previous managers were more likely to give him a run-out (rest Doyle) against more lowly clubs.

2. Managers might have played him "because he always does well against certain clubs..."

[Snowball]

I was talking just about up to the 19th November which is what you based your comment on:

Too much work.


I'd done the work already for "up to Dec 1st"

If you make it Nov 19th, it just makes my point stronger.

Just think of it as Shane has a couple of weeks in hand..

I'm just thinking that he has played a lot more minutes this season so it is no surprise he has more goals. But I don't know HOW many more minutes.

Yes he has, but he's MUCH MUCH better on goals PER MINUTE

[Snowball]

Snowball, can I just how good it is to be having this discussion in a civilised, mature way. I hope it continues.

Can you work out what's different?

I'm not being bombed by cmonurz, Hoop Blah, Ian Royal with some sort of LOL tossed my way by a random Nobber.


If you ever find yourself being battered from 6-7 sides at once, you'll understand.


Brendy-Wendy spotted what was happening. It's a Blood Sport, has been since my very first thread (defending Shane Long!)

[Snowball]

This is what U wanted Wyc?

2,056 Minutes = 3 Goals = A Goal every 685 Minutes (all the previous years up to Dec 1)
1,278 Minutes = 4 Goals = A Goal every 320 Minutes (this season, with two weeks still to go)

it's that 320 v 685 that gets me.

IMO the way to use Shane is 46 * 90 minutes and he'll get down to 1 goal in 2.5 games or better

[Snowball]

12/33 35% of his goals against sides in the top 26 in the country.

But remember he has NEVER played outside of the top two divisions, so you might actually expect that percentage to be a bit higher.

18 (40) = 24.33 versus top 20 sides (Premiership and Prem sides in Cups)
64 (42) = 71.00 versus sides not in the top 20




24.47% of games versus Premiership Sides
75.53% of games v CCC sides and a few lower

But 10 of his 33 goals 30.3% (v Premiership sides) have been in 24.47% of his games, so he is EXCEEDING expectations/expected average

Since Birmingham were a Premiership side when Shane scored against them in the cup, his "versus top-teams goals rises to 11/33 = 33.33% in 25.5% of the games

I find it quite interesting that a full third of his goals are against Premiership opposition

[Stranded]

Whilst Premiership in status, was the team that played? I only ask as many teams do field effective reserve sides in the cups.

[Victor Meldrew]

We know he's scored league goals against sides that didnt finish in the bottom 4 but don't you think its a pretty unusual statistic for someone to have scored such a high percentage of his league goals against such a small percentage of his overall opponents?

Not really, Vision

Two possible reasons.

1. Previous managers were more likely to give him a run-out (rest Doyle) against more lowly clubs.

2. Managers might have played him "because he always does well against certain clubs..."

I thought it was interesting and unusual Vision.

[Snowball]

Whilst Premiership in status, was the team that played? I only ask as many teams do field effective reserve sides in the cups.

Blimey, I don't know!

The recent Villa side and Liverpool sides were more or less full-strength

and don't forget, under Coppell WE put out the second 11...


And he has scored 5 goals in actual Premiership games, so that's 8 we know were near-enough full sides, straight away

[Snowball]

Top Scorers

4 Goals 1141 Total Minutes Harte (Plus 2 Goals for Carlisle in 180 Minutes)
4 Goals 1245 Total Minutes Kebe
4 Goals 1368 Total Minutes Long (Plus 2 Goals for Ireland in 209 Minutes)
4 Goals 1470 Total Minutes Mills
3 Goals 0814 Total Minutes Church
2 Goals 0522 Total Minutes Hunt
2 Goals 0564 Total Minutes HRK
2 Goals 1565 Total Minutes Karacan
1 Goals 0296 Total Minutes Antonio
1 Goals 1071 Total Minutes Pearce
1 Goals 1502 Total Minutes McAnuff
0 Goals 0390 Total Minutes Tabb
0 Goals 0439 Total Minutes Armstrong
0 Goals 0600 Total Minutes Cummings
0 Goals 0810 Total Minutes Zurab
0 Goals 0842 Total Minutes Griffin
0 Goals 1183 Total Minutes Howard
0 Goals 1530 Total Minutes Federici

Minutes per goal per player this season (RFC only)

00261 Mins per goal 2 Goals 0522 Total Minutes Hunt
00271 Mins per goal 3 Goals 0814 Total Minutes Church
00282 Mins per goal 2 Goals 0564 Total Minutes HRK

00285 Mins per goal 4 Goals 1141 Total Minutes Harte
00296 Mins per goal 1 Goals 0296 Total Minutes Antonio
00311 Mins per goal 4 Goals 1245 Total Minutes Kebe

00342 Mins per goal 4 Goals 1368 Total Minutes Long
00368 Mins per goal 4 Goals 1470 Total Minutes Mills
00783 Mins per goal 2 Goals 1565 Total Minutes Karacan

01071 Mins per goal 1 Goals 1071 Total Minutes Pearce
01502 Mins per goal 1 Goals 1502 Total Minutes McAnuff

10000 Mins per goal 0 Goals 1530 Total Minutes Federici
10000 Mins per goal 0 Goals 1183 Total Minutes Howard
10000 Mins per goal 0 Goals 0842 Total Minutes Griffin
10000 Mins per goal 0 Goals 0810 Total Minutes Zurab
10000 Mins per goal 0 Goals 0600 Total Minutes Cummings
10000 Mins per goal 0 Goals 0439 Total Minutes Armstrong
10000 Mins per goal 0 Goals 0390 Total Minutes Tabb

[leon]

This is all lovely, but Long doesn't score enough goals. Never has, and very likely won't in the near future. Which is when we want him to.

[Elm Park Old Boy]

I like Long. I think he's pretty good. He's improved, and I suspect he'll get even better.

That's all. No stats, sorry.

[Snowball]

This is all lovely, but Long doesn't score enough goals. Never has, and very likely won't in the near future. Which is when we want him to.

and don't the stats show that, this season, excluding internationals, that is the case?

[Wycombe Royal]

The one thing that stands out in those minutes per goal stats for this season is that we don't rely on a single, or even two players for our goals. This can be seen as a strength because if we lose one or two goalscorers we will be more confident of goals coming from other players as opposed to a team that relis on say one player for 50% of their goals.

[Snowball]

Whilst Premiership in status, was the team that played? I only ask as many teams do field effective reserve sides in the cups.

VILLA, YES!

Aston Villa (4-4-2): Friedel; Cuellar, Warnock, Collins, Dunne; Milner, Petrov (c), Ashley Young, Downing (Sidwell 90); Carew, Heskey
Subs: Guzan, Beye, L Young, Albrighton, Delph, Delfouneso: Booked: Dunne (25). Young (dissent 40), Collins (foul 48), Milner (foul 84)

and Burnley...

Burnley (4-3-2-1): Jensen; Mears, McCann, Edgar, Duff; Alexander (c), Gudjonsson (Blake 85), McDonald; Eagles, Elliott; Thompson (Paterson HT)
Subs: Carlisle, Rodriguez, Guerrero, Penny, Easton. Yellow: McCann, Eagles.


and Liverpool (1-1)

Liverpool (4-4-2): Reina; Darby, Insua, Carragher, Skrtel, Lucas, Gerrard, Aurelio (Benayoun 79), Kuyt; N'Gog (Aquilani 68), Torres
Subs: Cavalieri, Degen, Kyrgiakos, Spearing, Babel Yellow: Insua


Liverpool (2-1) all except the keeper?

Liverpool: Cavalieri, Degen (Skrtel FT), Insua, Agger, Carragher, Gerrard (c) (Babel HT), Lucas, Aquilani, Benayoun, Kuyt, Torres (Ngog 30)
Subs: Gulacsi, Aurelio, Spearing, Pacheco Yellow: Degen

WBA (2-2)

West Brom (4-2-3-1): Carson; Zuiverloon, Mattock, Meite (Tamas 52), Olsson; Jara (Mulumbu HT), Dorrans; Cox, Brunt (Moore 74), Bednar
Subs: Kiely, Brown, Mantom, Wood. Booked: Mulumbu (foul 46), Tamas (foul 65) Sent off: Mulumbu (foul, second yellow 61)

WBA 3-2

West Brom (4-3-2-1): Carson (c); Zuiverloon, Mattock, Meite, Tamas; Mulumbu, Dorrans (Morrison 70), Koren; Cox, Moore (Cech 78); Bednar (Wood 39)
Subs: Kiely, Olsson, Brunt, Slory Booked: Carson (timewasting 90), Cech (foul 108)

Liverpool League Cup (But READING fielded a weaker team)

Liverpool: Itandje; Finnan, Aurelio (Riise 69); Arbeloa, Carragher (c); Leiva (Hobbs 89), Sissoko; Benayoun, Leto; Crouch (Gerrard 77), Torres
Subs: Martin, Putterill Booked: Leiva

Reading: Federici; De La Cruz, Shorey, Bikey, Duberry; Fae, Harper (c), Convey (Kitson 78), Halls (Hunt 78); Lita, Long (Henry 78)
Subs: Hahnemann, Cisse Booked: Bikey, Duberry, Fae

DITTO (the one Long scored in)
Liverpool (4-4-2): Reina; Peltier (Smith 74), Warnock, Agger, Paletta, Sissoko (Guthrie 62), Zenden, Pennant, Riise (Kuyt 79), Crouch, Fowler (c).
Subs: Martin, Carragher. Yellow cards: Paletta

Reading (4-4-2): Stack, Halls, De La Cruz, Gunnarsson (Sodje 83), Ingimarsson (c), Bikey, Oster, Little, Hunt, Long, Lita.
Subs: Hahnemann, Osano, Hayes, Joseph-Dubois Yellow cards: Little



BIRMINGHAM: (We fielded a second eleven)

Reading: Stack, Halls, Makin, Gunnarsson, Sonko, Harper, Sidwell, Oster, Hunt, Lita, Long (Doyle 89)
Subs: Hahnemann, Osano, Ingimarsson, Little Yellow cards: Oster, Sonko

Birmingham: Taylor, Melchiot, Lazaridis, Bruce, Tebily, Izzet (Kilkenny 58), Johnson, Pennant, Jarosik (Forssell 58), Heskey (Dunn 58), Sutton
Subs: Vaesen, Oji Tebily