Perspective

[Mr Angry]

This is the sort of BS that drives me potty:

Snowball wrote:
We have some poor teams to play, Preston, Scunthorpe, both surely doomed, Sheffield United, a poor side, Coventry in free-fall, Derby ditto. Six games there with a great chance of 18 points (yes I know I'm tempting fate)

Now IF we can win these six games that takes us to 60 points plus 8 more games against lowly sides where we have averaged 1.85 ppg (plus the two good clubs)

I genuinely believe that if we can win tomorrow night and then home on Saturday we will go on a fantastic run, and at worst, be seventh. I concede that we might well "blow it" and fail to win at Sheffield. I would then consider our season over as I'm sure confidence would be shot to pieces. But win at Sheffield and then beat Watford & Millwall and it's game on again!

Where to start? Firstly, Snowball says that of the teams left to play, only 2 are "good clubs"? Which 2?? Leicester? Forest? Leeds? Watford? Oddly, for someone who loves to splurg stats, he seems incapable of taking into consideration the CURRENT form of the teams we still have to play - maybe if he did, he would be a little more realistic about stating that, at worst, we would end up 7th.....

Looking at who we have left to play, its easy to say "well, 10 are against teams below us, and only 5 against teams above us". Simples.

Except it isn't, as some of those teams below us have come into form as we have lost form (eg: Ipswich - on 22/1 they were 12 points below us; this morning, they are 2 points below us) and a couple of teams we have to play away are only below us because their away form is so poor - their home form is actually better than ours.

The next 2 are Watford & Millwall at home. Anyone who thinks those 2 games are against "poor" or "lowly" sides is simply bonkers - not least Watford who came back from 2 down last night and were unlucky (according to SSN) not to win, and who we never play well against. (Millwall have a poor away record so we should have a reasonable hope of a win against them....as we did at home versus Leeds, Hull, Coventry etc etc etc)

Our remaining home games after those 2 are Boro (always difficult), Preston (SHOULD be a win), Pompey (anyone still alive the last time we beat them?) Leicester (a definate play-off contender and may even sneak the 2nd auto spot) Sheff Utd and Derby (by which time its likely that those 2 games will be utterly meaningless - for us). And all this before taking into consideration that, for all the talk a few weeks ago of "Fortress Madejski", our home record is distinctly average (W6 D6 L3 - as opposed to Palace, who lie in 21st yet whose home record is W7 D4 L4 - in other words, 25 points to our 24).

Our remaining away games: Palace (have to have a chance of a win there - oh!!) Ipswich (Jewell has got them winning games, and who scored more goals last night than we did in the whole of Jan in the League), Barnsley (again - have to have a chance of a win there, but whose home record is W8 D5 L3) Forest (unbeaten at home for what feels like decades), Scunny (such a poor team with only 1 home win all season, yet who beat us at our place and who we haven't beaten since they came up) Leeds (never an easy place to get a result) and Coventry (again - likely to be a meaningless game).

[Mr Angry]

We have to win at Sheffield United, for starters, then start winning our home games, basically all of them now. That's 69 points.

Anybody want to hazard a guess at the last time we won 8 home games, in the league, on the trot???


(It was (naturally) in our 106 season; 1/11/05 (Sheffield Weds) to 25/2/06 (Preston) inclusive - 10 games in total.)

[Wimb]

Of all the things to bash Snowball on, I don't understand why optimism is the one people are picking on.

He's simply suggesting a way we COULD still make the play-offs, don't think he's been saying we will do it, just that the situation may not be as totally bleak as some might think.

[Hoop Blah]

Ah-ha, COULD, the cowards get out clause!

The reason people jump on snowballs tripe is because he rams it down the boards throat as if it's fact, gospel and all substantiated by his in-depth statistical analysis and so better than other posters opinion based on their knowledge and what they see with their eyes.

[papereyes]

See also: why we're statistically certain to beat Bristol City.

[brendywendy]

before last night we were 10 pointys away from 6th. now we are 9.
not sure th eoptimism is so wildly misplaced if we are simply talking about our "chances"

[Bandini]

"Too much perspective"

'greed.

[Wimb]

Ah-ha, COULD, the cowards get out clause!

The reason people jump on snowballs tripe is because he rams it down the boards throat as if it's fact, gospel and all substantiated by his in-depth statistical analysis and so better than other posters opinion based on their knowledge and what they see with their eyes.

Yeah I agree he uses that clause far too often, I've got as much beef with the bloke as anyone, but unlike his other threads where he's saying what WILL HAPPEN and HOW GOOD player X is etc, on this occasion he's only theorising about a potential path to the playoffs

[brendywendy]

30 points from 15 games is doable though.
is it doable by this team, this season,from these games, who knows.

[Snowball]

This is the sort of BS that drives me potty:

Snowball wrote:
We have some poor teams to play, Preston, Scunthorpe, both surely doomed, Sheffield United, a poor side, Coventry in free-fall, Derby ditto. Six games there with a great chance of 18 points (yes I know I'm tempting fate)

Now IF we can win these six games that takes us to 60 points plus 8 more games against lowly sides where we have averaged 1.85 ppg (plus the two good clubs)

I genuinely believe that if we can win tomorrow night and then home on Saturday we will go on a fantastic run, and at worst, be seventh. I concede that we might well "blow it" and fail to win at Sheffield. I would then consider our season over as I'm sure confidence would be shot to pieces. But win at Sheffield and then beat Watford & Millwall and it's game on again!

Where to start? Firstly, Snowball says that of the teams left to play, only 2 are "good clubs"? Which 2?? Leicester? Forest? Leeds? Watford? Oddly, for someone who loves to splurg stats, he seems incapable of taking into consideration the CURRENT form of the teams we still have to play - maybe if he did, he would be a little more realistic about stating that, at worst, we would end up 7th.....

I was referring to the fact that people were reporting we could not beat top six clubs. Do you imagine I am not aware that Leicester are getting better, Hull are getting better, Burnley are getting better? I had previously pointed out our very good record against the rest. We have beaten Leicester away, Burnley home and away, drawn twice with Hull.

As for not taking into account current form that is absolute TOSH. I posted a table of current form and showed that we had played all top form sides except Doncaster where we won 0-3 and that our next 9 games were all against sides from position 10-24

And TRY READING. I did NOT say we would end up "at worst" 7th. There were one hell of a lot of IFs in there

I genuinely believe that if we can win tomorrow night

and then (if we can win) home on Saturday

(THEN) we will go on a fantastic run, and at worst, be seventh.

I also said:

I concede that we might well "blow it" and fail to win at Sheffield.

I would then consider our season over as I'm sure confidence would be shot to pieces.

[Hoop Blah]

Ah-ha, COULD, the cowards get out clause!

The reason people jump on snowballs tripe is because he rams it down the boards throat as if it's fact, gospel and all substantiated by his in-depth statistical analysis and so better than other posters opinion based on their knowledge and what they see with their eyes.

Yeah I agree he uses that clause far too often, I've got as much beef with the bloke as anyone, but unlike his other threads where he's saying what WILL HAPPEN and HOW GOOD player X is etc, on this occasion he's only theorising about a potential path to the playoffs

Sorry, that was actually a reference at this comment from snowball on another thread

I did note the word "probably" the coward's get-out clause for later.

Probably excuses a goal, maybe two. Any more and the poster is revealed for precisely what he is.

[Snowball]

We have to win at Sheffield United, for starters, then start winning our home games, basically all of them now. That's 69 points.

Anybody want to hazard a guess at the last time we won 8 home games, in the league, on the trot???


(It was (naturally) in our 106 season; 1/11/05 (Sheffield Weds) to 25/2/06 (Preston) inclusive - 10 games in total.)

Yet again you show your inability to (a) read and (b) think.

I did not say we WILL win at Sheffield and/or we WILL win 8 home games. What I said to was (in order to have an outside chance of making the POs, 'WE HAVE TO" WIN THOSE GAMES.

[bcubed]

Don't know about everyone else but I thought we were a tad unlucky last night

[Snowball]

Except it isn't, as some of those teams below us have come into form as we have lost form (eg: Ipswich - on 22/1 they were 12 points below us; this morning, they are 2 points below us) and a couple of teams we have to play away are only below us because their away form is so poor - their home form is actually better than ours.

I don't concede we have lost form, for a starter. And of course I am completely unaware of Ipswich's results and I still don't know they won 0-6 last night. That's not true, is it?

When I was looking at where we MIGHT get points I looked at Sheffield, Scunthorpe away followed by Barnsley and Palace and Coventry. I presumed defeats at Leeds and Forest and Ipswich was (then) the third-hardest game.

Did I say I thought we would win there? NO.

Did I say I thought we'd get a point there? Is that a No?



The next 2 are Watford & Millwall at home. Anyone who thinks those 2 games are against "poor" or "lowly" sides is simply bonkers - not least Watford who came back from 2 down last night and were unlucky (according to SSN) not to win, and who we never play well against. (Millwall have a poor away record so we should have a reasonable hope of a win against them....as we did at home versus Leeds, Hull, Coventry etc etc etc)

Where do you get the idea that I say these are poor sides?

I didn't.

They are NOT top-six sides.

They are NOT doing well on current form.

They are BEATABLE if we play to our best and they are not at their very best. That's all.

[Mr Angry]

In other words, for all of the vast amounts of bandwidth you use up, it boils down to this.

IF.



IF my granny had cojones, she would be my grandad.

So, after a draw last night with a "poor" team, with all your spreadsheets, trends etc - IN YOUR OPINION will Reading make it into the Play-Offs?

A simple yes or no answer will suffice........

[Mr Angry]

Except it isn't, as some of those teams below us have come into form as we have lost form (eg: Ipswich - on 22/1 they were 12 points below us; this morning, they are 2 points below us) and a couple of teams we have to play away are only below us because their away form is so poor - their home form is actually better than ours.

I don't concede we have lost form, for a starter. And of course I am completely unaware of Ipswich's results and I still don't know they won 0-6 last night. That's not true, is it?

When I was looking at where we MIGHT get points I looked at Sheffield, Scunthorpe away followed by Barnsley and Palace and Coventry. I presumed defeats at Leeds and Forest and Ipswich was (then) the third-hardest game.

Did I say I thought we would win there? NO.

Did I say I thought we'd get a point there? Is that a No?



The next 2 are Watford & Millwall at home. Anyone who thinks those 2 games are against "poor" or "lowly" sides is simply bonkers - not least Watford who came back from 2 down last night and were unlucky (according to SSN) not to win, and who we never play well against. (Millwall have a poor away record so we should have a reasonable hope of a win against them....as we did at home versus Leeds, Hull, Coventry etc etc etc)

Where do you get the idea that I say these are poor sides?

I didn't.

They are NOT top-six sides.

They are NOT doing well on current form.

They are BEATABLE if we play to our best and they are not at their very best. That's all.

Snowball - don't try to change what you wrote; your exact words as posted on the 14th February were:

We have some poor teams to play, Preston, Scunthorpe, both surely doomed, Sheffield United, a poor side, Coventry in free-fall, Derby ditto. Six games there with a great chance of 18 points (yes I know I'm tempting fate)

Now IF we can win these six games that takes us to 60 points plus 8 more games against lowly sides where we have averaged 1.85 ppg (plus the two good clubs)

I make that 14 games, plus 2 good clubs; which are the 2 clubs of the games we have left to play that you consider good??

It then follows (does it not) that the other 14 you consider either poor or lowly; ipso facto - UNLESS you consider Watford & Millwall to be better than, say, Forest or Leeds, you consider them to be either "poor" or "lowly" and as both are above us in the League, and assuming that even you recognise the stupidity of describing a team higher in the league than ourselves as "lowly" it must mean you consider them "poor".

Its also good that you don't consider that we have lost form.....nice. Last 6 league games: WDDLLD = 6 out of 18. Previous six league games: DWWDLW = 11 out of 18. 6 League games before that: WLDDDD - 7 out of 18. 6 League games before that: WWDLLW 10 out of 18. How is that NOT a loss of form???

[weybridgewanderer]

before last night we were 10 pointys away from 6th. now we are 9.
not sure th eoptimism is so wildly misplaced if we are simply talking about our "chances"

10, with a game in hand

now 9 having played the same number of games

[Snowball]

Snowball - don't try to change what you wrote; your exact words as posted on the 14th February were:

We have some poor teams to play, Preston, Scunthorpe, both surely doomed, Sheffield United, a poor side, Coventry in free-fall, Derby ditto. Six games there with a great chance of 18 points (yes I know I'm tempting fate)// Now IF we can win these six games that takes us to 60 points plus 8 more games against lowly sides where we have averaged 1.85 ppg (plus the two good clubs)

I make that 14 games Well done 6 + 8 = 14
Plus 2 good clubs; which are the 2 clubs of the games we have left to play that you consider good??

That was already made clear, AND made clear in my previous post. Is English your second language? Here it is again, with short words for you.

Good-meant-top-six-COS-folks-said-we-don't-beat-top-six

Now before you go off on yet another semantically-challenged loop-the-loop, LISTEN. The debate had been about RFC's failure to beat TOP-SIX-SIDES. Write that down. The debate had been about RFC's failure to beat TOP-SIX-SIDES.

Reading had (have) only 2 (two) (pronounced TU) top-six sides to play. I posted Reading's record against ALL THE OTHER SIDES.

To explain, "all the other sides" means all the sides in the English Football League Championship in the season 2010-11 but EXCLUDING the sides then in the TOP-SIX (and just for clarity, also not including Reading FC, Arsenal and Barcelona).

To explain a little bit more (are you taking notes?) I was granting the accolade "good" to THOSE SIDES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AND REFERRED TO AS TOP-SIX-SIDES. These were QPR, Cardiff, Norwich, Swansea, Nottingham Forest and Leeds. How are we doing so far?

There are then "six good sides" called "the top six" who we clearly have trouble beating.

BREATHE...

The statement, "There are then "six good sides" called "the top six" who we clearly have trouble beating." does NOT mean "There are ONLY six good sides."

But there ARE "only six good sides in the top six that this season we seem unable to beat. Which was where the debate was in the first place.

There are TOP-SIX sides. QPR, Cardiff, Norwich, Swansea, Nottingham Forest and Leeds.

There are POOR sides (as described). Sheffield, Scunthorpe, Preston, Derby, Coventry

6 + 5 is 11. Plus RFC is 12.

Now here is a tiny bit where you might have to use some deductive powers. We know who I am calling top-six. We know who I am calling "poor". Can you understand that I am SUGGESTING that the other 11 clubs are BETWEEN these (6 above and 5 below). The best of the rest would be a top-SEVEN team (theoretically) and the second-best of the rest would be a top-EIGHT team (theoretically).

The worst of the rest (theoretically) would probably finish about sixth-bottom. So for example (and I posted on these too) Leicester, on the rise, good manager, spent money, got Yakubu, in form, are the toughest of the middling clubs, (but we HAVE beaten them and we have them at the MadStad) Burnley would be next but we've played them twice already. Then Millwall, (do you get where I'm going here?)... then Hull (but we've played then twice) then Watford.

You see, it's sort of, oh look, this side is 11th. This side is below half-way in the recent form table

It then follows (does it not) (no it doesn't) that the other 14 you consider either poor or lowly; ipso facto - UNLESS you consider Watford & Millwall to be better than, say, Forest or Leeds, you consider them to be either "poor" or "lowly" and as both are above us in the League, and assuming that even you recognise the stupidity of describing a team higher in the league than ourselves as "lowly" it must mean you consider them "poor".

Jeezusss, that is tortured logic from a VERY angry man. If (by your ridiculous logic) I consider any team from 7-11 (above us) as POOR, then presumably I must think we are VERY poor or MORE poor, or "even poorer"

Its also good that you don't consider that we have lost form.....nice. Last 6 league games: WDDLLD = 6 out of 18. Previous six league games: DWWDLW = 11 out of 18. 6 League games before that: WLDDDD - 7 out of 18. 6 League games before that: WWDLLW 10 out of 18. How is that NOT a loss of form???

Oh, I see, so in one post you criticize me for not noticing the calibre or recent form of a team (when evaluating our results, but now you simply IGNORE the fact that we played QPR (top) Cardiff (2nd) Norwich 3rd) in this so-called bad-run. And did you miss the fact that Hull are rejuvenated, on a good run, an extremely tight defence recently, also up there in the form tables?

If someone says These 6 teams are good and THESE 5 teams are poor, is it not logical (in anywhere other than La-La-Land that those teams IN BETWEEN will go from "fairly poor" (but not as poor as poor) as the five through to "fairly good" (but not as good as the good) as the top-six?

Or is that too difficult for you?

Prior to last night we had averaged 1.85 ppg against the sides outside the top six. It is not unreasonable to expect us to continue that form, especially as

Scunthorpe beat us. They are now terrible.
Shane Long is in the best form of his career, better than games 1-10
Elwood has made us a batter team (better than games 1-20)
Coventry and Derby are on bad runs of form, thus worse than when we played them
Millwall and Watford have lost form, not disastrously but they are not playing as well as they were.

against the above Ipswich and Leicester have improved a fair bit, Palace have improved.

That's 5 clubs on downs, 3 on ups, and we have Super Shane and Elwood.


Therefore, as I saw it, we had every chance in the world of equalling or bettering 1.85 ppg.

[brendywendy]

before last night we were 10 pointys away from 6th. now we are 9.
not sure th eoptimism is so wildly misplaced if we are simply talking about our "chances"

10, with a game in hand

now 9 having played the same number of games

points in the bag are better than 3 in your head!


and therefore its still better than it was yesterday

[Hoop Blah]

You seem to be failing to factor in that it's one less game we have to accumulate enough points to close that gap though brendy. Last night was one of those winable games and failing to do so puts us in a less favourable position than we were.

I don't think the last few games have had a massive impact on our chances of getting into the playoffs. I didn't expect a hell of a lot from them anyway so it's not a big dent. IF we'd managed to win one of them and hold on for a point in one as well it would've been a big boost though.