This Looks Nice

[Vision]

Last 8 games going into that final match.

Reading Pl8 W3 D4 L1
Brum Pl8 W3 D4 L1

Stats. Dontcha just love 'em

Don't see that the above proves much. What were the opposition teams?

Two sides with 13 points from 8 (approx a 74 point season) so neither doing particularly well

The game had 1-1 written all over it (which it should have been)

Should have been if it wasn't 2-1 you mean.

To paraphrase

You can bleat and moan like you always bleat and moan but it will not make this 8-game stat any less absolutely factual.

Don't diss my stats mate. They're absolutely FACTUAL.

[Snowball]

Birmingham Finished WELL

But narrowing it down to 8 games emphasises their shock
home defeat to Preston. Their form over the last 12 games was top class

H 1-0 Bristol
H 1-0 Southampton
A 1-1 Barnsley
A 2-0 Doncaster
H 1-1 Norwich
H 2-0 Wolves
A 0-0 Charlton
H 1-1 Plymouth
A 1-0 Watford
H 1-2 Preston
A 2-1 Reading

P11 W6 D4 L1 13-6 22 Points, 2 ppg Automatic promotion Form

They finished the season on 83 points. Their last 11 was 84-point form

Doesn't look like they were fading much, does it.


Reading were mince

H 2-2 Charlton
H 0-1 Ipswich
A 1-0 Doncaster
A 0-0 Crystal Palace
A 0-0 Coventry
H 0-1 Sheffield Utd
A 2-2 Blackpool
H 0-0 Barnsley
A 2-0 Derby
A 2-0 Norwich
H 1-2 Birmingham

W3 D4 L4 10-8 13 Points, 1.18 ppg a 54 point season which would have made us 17th (and we drew the game before that too!)

and the games before that were even worse

A 0-0 QPR
H 0-0 Preston
H 0-2 Bristol
H 0-1 Nottm Forest
A 2-1 Sheffield Wed
A 2-2 Plymouth

W1 D3 L2 4-6 6 points from 6 = relegation


Our last 17 games were W4 D7 L6 14-14 19 points equiv to a 51 point season 21st place

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

I have no problem at all with Snowball and stats, each to their own.

I manipulate stats all day every day to make them show what I want to see!

Do you work for the Lib Dems?

[leicsRoyal]

I have no problem at all with Snowball and stats, each to their own.

I manipulate stats all day every day to make them show what I want to see!

Do you work for the Lib Dems?

It feels like it sometimes. Spend a huge amount of time forecast adjusting to ensure that we are within +/-1 of targets/budgets.

You can make a stat tell you exactly what you want it to tell you, if not, use a different stat!

[Ghost Royal]

Fair play to Snowball....he's arguing his corner very well here and winning more of us over to his way of seeing things. As long as we all agree that stats (which are based on actual results) *can* serve as a useful indicator of potential future forecasting (after all this is all the weather man does or the stockbroker or the supermarket), then we're all happy.

And where's my "f*ck on newbie" welcome??....9 years I've been reading this damned site and never got round to posting, you could at least greet me properly!!!

[Vision]

Oh I know we were mince, my own eyes told me that but on most definitions of current form which is 8 games the stats will show we werent'. And entering that final game those stats were identical to Birmingham. Thats why you like stats isn't it. It's statistical proof that we weren't as mince as memory says. Even though we all know we were.

To copy you I'll also point out that we only conceded 3 goals in those 8 games prior to the Birmingham one with 6 clean sheets. Best defence in the division for that period as you constantly try to tell us about our current side.

I'll also copy your trick of ignoring the 9 games prior to that 8 game spell as "having different circumstances" The Hunt /Doyle partnership was effected by injury and it took us time to adjust etc etc etc, players n on loan blah blah blah.

The point is that as far as the numbers are concerned they are FACT. But any list of numbers can be argued/debated/discussed with regards to the circumstances that surround them and all the other factorss that go with it. It seems to me that YOU don't like it if other people question your numbers and why you chose them, yet if someone else comes up with numbers from a specific range you argue the point in exactly the same way as others.

I've said it before , i quite like reading your stats they can be illuminating at times but there's no need to get so precious about them. They're just numbers and are open to interpretationas much as anything else.

[melonhead]

sorry!very remiss of us


oxf*rd off newbie etc

[Vision]

Birmingham Finished WELL

But narrowing it down to 8 games emphasises their shock
home defeat to Preston. Their form over the last 12 games was top class

H 1-0 Bristol
H 1-0 Southampton
A 1-1 Barnsley
A 2-0 Doncaster
H 1-1 Norwich
H 2-0 Wolves
A 0-0 Charlton
H 1-1 Plymouth
A 1-0 Watford
H 1-2 Preston
A 2-1 Reading

P11 W6 D4 L1 13-6 22 Points, 2 ppg Automatic promotion Form

They finished the season on 83 points. Their last 11 was 84-point form

Doesn't look like they were fading much, does it.


Reading were mince

H 2-2 Charlton
H 0-1 Ipswich
A 1-0 Doncaster
A 0-0 Crystal Palace
A 0-0 Coventry
H 0-1 Sheffield Utd
A 2-2 Blackpool
H 0-0 Barnsley
A 2-0 Derby
A 2-0 Norwich
H 1-2 Birmingham

W3 D4 L4 10-8 13 Points, 1.18 ppg a 54 point season which would have made us 17th (and we drew the game before that too!)

and the games before that were even worse

A 0-0 QPR
H 0-0 Preston
H 0-2 Bristol
H 0-1 Nottm Forest
A 2-1 Sheffield Wed
A 2-2 Plymouth

W1 D3 L2 4-6 6 points from 6 = relegation


Our last 17 games were W4 D7 L6 14-14 19 points equiv to a 51 point season 21st place

EDIT. Or put another way. Our form statiscally speaking was improving then whilst Birmingham's wasn't.

Oh I know we were mince, my own eyes told me that but on most definitions of current form which is 8 games the stats will show we werent'. And entering that final game those stats were identical to Birmingham. Thats why you like stats isn't it. It's statistical proof that we weren't as mince as memory says. Even though we all know we were.

To copy you I'll also point out that we only conceded 3 goals in those 8 games prior to the Birmingham one with 6 clean sheets. Best defence in the division for that period as you constantly try to tell us about our current side.

I'll also copy your trick of ignoring the 9 games prior to that 8 game spell as "having different circumstances" The Hunt /Doyle partnership was effected by injury and it took us time to adjust etc etc etc, players n on loan blah blah blah.

The point is that as far as the numbers are concerned they are FACT. But any list of numbers can be argued/debated/discussed with regards to the circumstances that surround them and all the other factorss that go with it. It seems to me that YOU don't like it if other people question your numbers and why you chose them, yet if someone else comes up with numbers from a specific range you argue the point in exactly the same way as others.

I've said it before , i quite like reading your stats they can be illuminating at times but there's no need to get so precious about them. They're just numbers and are open to interpretationas much as anything else.

[Maguire]

i like stats

Me too. As everyone's said, I don't mind the stats at all.

It's the constant misuse that I feel compelled to point out.

Awarding "half-assists" to back up some argument or other was it taken to the nth degree.

Use your own stats then.

I do. Even better, I couple them with real-life observations. It's great.

[Extended-Phenotype]

In the 1 minute in which Church scored a goal, he scored 1 goal a minute. I've ignored the other minutes in which he didn't score, because he didn't have his eye in - but he got it together and if we start him against Doncaster, he should score 90 goals against them.

[Snowball]

I do. Even better, I couple them with real-life observations. It's great.

Oh BIG mistake. When I got to games I turn my back on the play.

All those actual things like watching people kick the ball, Yuck!

[Snowball]

In the 1 minute in which Church scored a goal, he scored 1 goal a minute. I've ignored the other minutes in which he didn't score, because he didn't have his eye in - but he got it together and if we start him against Doncaster, he should score 90 goals against them.

I hope you're not as ugly as you're clever

[No Hoops]

Fair play to Snowball....he's arguing his corner very well here and winning more of us over to his way of seeing things. As long as we all agree that stats (which are based on actual results) *can* serve as a useful indicator of potential future forecasting (after all this is all the weather man does or the stockbroker or the supermarket), then we're all happy.

And where's my "f*ck on newbie" welcome??....9 years I've been reading this damned site and never got round to posting, you could at least greet me properly!!!

Oxford off newbie

[West Stand Man]

In the 1 minute in which Church scored a goal, he scored 1 goal a minute. I've ignored the other minutes in which he didn't score, because he didn't have his eye in - but he got it together and if we start him against Doncaster, he should score 90 goals against them.

Just when you think the mental dwarf has gone away ......

[Extended-Phenotype]

Just when you think the mental dwarf has gone away ......

...You realise you are not only married to it, but are also balls deep in its beard.

[Snowball]

In the 1 minute in which Church scored a goal, he scored 1 goal a minute. I've ignored the other minutes in which he didn't score, because he didn't have his eye in - but he got it together and if we start him against Doncaster, he should score 90 goals against them.

Just when you think the mental dwarf has gone away ......

He's wrong anyway, as it's a goal in a second, so...

[themadstad]

In essence based on the 22 game form, we dropped 7 points, you could say in that first 6 games. So if we can keep up the 1.86ppg over the remaining 18 games can we find that 7 points?

With the games coming up that's where I'm not convinced of keeping it up. Never mind the increase.

[Hoop Blah]

The flaw is that he's chosen the comparison to other teams based on our circumstances...

This is key. Snowball at least makes an argument as to why 22 games is a relevant 'form' guide for Reading. The problem is then using that same set of games as a yardstick for everyone else in the division, which makes the comparison biased.

If, and I'm not sure we would, but if we lost three games on the trot, that 20-odd game 'form guide' would I'm sure be dropped for a more favourable statistic.

Good point. For example, it would be interesting to see the form for Birmingham before before and after they got knocked out of Europe. I've no idea what player changes they've made at various times but my instinct tells me that they've probably seen an upturn in form since they settled back into league routine (after say a week or two of getting over their European adventure). Points gathered wise it must look pretty good as they've almost caught up with their games in hand, which at one point was 3 or 4 I think.

[Wimb]

Snowball in moving the goalposts non-shocker.

Oh and again for teh lulz

viewtopic.php?f=19&t=103799&start=80&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&p=2821016&view=show#p2821016

[Snowball]

Snowball in moving the goalposts non-shocker.

and how exactly have I moved the goalposts?