Horrible feeling about this season...

[sandman]

...and why does this cnut insist on typing 'mate' as 'm8'?

no need to get so ir8 m8

Don't r8 the abuse you got there m8. Must have issues to get that ir8. Love, don't h8.

Gr8t post m8.

[Snowball]

Big Deal we manage 5 wins a draw and a defeat against 6 sides in the bottom half of the table
and four of those in the bottom 6!!!!

05 Middlesbrough
13 Leicester
17 Peterborough
18 Barnsley
19 Millwall
23 Doncaster
24 Portsmouth

Average position 17th



Now we have to play 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11,

average position 6th

and 20th

Or 8th if you actually included all our remaining games.

Oh, I didn't realise that. Imagine if I had posted "and 20th", then that would have shown
that I realised, as well as playing the 7 clubs in positions, 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11 we were ALSO
playing the club in 20th. Shucks. Fancy me missing that, eh?

The point is (this is for people with a brain) that it is clear that 7/8 games are particularly
tough (with an average league position of 6th) and that when you add in a single other game
that skews the average (as in mean)... the median, is, however 6.5 and a far more honest
representation of the problem

[Snowball]

Wow. Taking a single set of results as a cause for panic really is the work of a master of statistics. Our football team lost. Hopefully we'll win the next one. Exciting this, isn't it?

"RECENT FORM" is not "taking a single set of results" out of the ether.

Southampton's RECENT form is much much better than their form from games 18-28, and better than their season average. That is they are peaking at the right time .

Brighton have also come good again after a poor spell.

[winchester_royal]

Big Deal we manage 5 wins a draw and a defeat against 6 sides in the bottom half of the table
and four of those in the bottom 6!!!!

05 Middlesbrough
13 Leicester
17 Peterborough
18 Barnsley
19 Millwall
23 Doncaster
24 Portsmouth

Average position 17th



Now we have to play 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11,

average position 6th

and 20th

Or 8th if you actually included all our remaining games.

Oh, I didn't realise that. Imagine if I had posted "and 20th", then that would have shown
that I realised, as well as playing the 7 clubs in positions, 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11 we were ALSO
playing the club in 20th. Shucks. Fancy me missing that, eh?

The point is (this is for people with a brain) that it is clear that 7/8 games are particularly
tough (with an average league position of 6th) and that when you add in a single other game
that skews the average (as in mean)... the median, is, however 6.5 and a far more honest
representation of the problem

Omitting pieces of data from the average and then insulting people who call you on it, Snowball? That's very unlike you

[Snowball]

Omitting pieces of data from the average and then insulting people who call you on it, Snowball? That's very unlike you

Dearie me. I POSTED the fact that there was a team in 20th.

I left it from the average of the other seven

if you can't understand that a single "20th" skews the average, that's your problem, not mine.

[winchester_royal]

Omitting pieces of data from the average and then insulting people who call you on it, Snowball? That's very unlike you

Dearie me. I POSTED the fact that there was a team in 20th.

I left it from the average of the other seven

if you can't understand that a single "20th" skews the average, that's your problem, not mine.

Yes Snowball, it does bring down the average and hence weaken your argument. However that's not a valid reason to leave it out.

[1871 Royal]

I feel incredibly insulted. I am only trying to point out a way in which statistics could possibly be improved. Also who is to say these are the positions the teams will be in when we get around to playing them. Stupid and pointless stat, anyone without a brain can spot that.

[Snowball]

Yes Snowball, it does bring down the average and hence weaken your argument. However that's not a valid reason to leave it out.

It's an obvious outlier, and perfectly reasonable to put it to one side. It isn't omitted and not mentioned.

Perhaps the more feeble-minded on the list need a statement like

"The average position of 7 of our 8 opponents is sixth. The other team is 20th."

[winchester_royal]

Lolz, you know exactly what you were doing Snowball.

Besides, it's an utterly pointless stat, and is analytically useless without further research on how we perform against teams in higher positions.

Feel free to carry on calling everyone who disagrees with you brainless though.

[Snowball]

Also who is to say these are the positions the teams will be in when we get around to playing them.

Yeah RIGHT.

We are playing the team that is 5 points clear at the top, that has been top or second for the whole season. They will "obviously" crash and burn and be a poor side when we play them.

West Ham may be stuttering, but they are still losing very, very few games, and like Reading, are heavy odds-on to finish in the top three.

Brighton are improving and have been averaging over 2 points per game over the last 12 games.

etc

Leeds MIGHT fall away, but then Forest (on a decent run) might be higher.

The simple fact is we are on our toughest run of the season and are almost certainly going to drop a lot of points in these 8 games

[Snowball]

all.

Besides, it's an utterly pointless stat, and is analytically useless without further research on how we perform against teams in higher positions.

Against Top Half (Home & Away)

Reading 15 7-3-5 18-10 +8 24 1.60

That might look pretty good but it's almost a point per game LESS than we've been averaging recently
(because we have had a great run against mostly poor sides)

Against top half sides (AWAY)

2 Reading 7 3-1-3 6-5 +1 10 1.43


Which means, based on our form we should get 5 or 6 points from Saints, West Ham, Birmingham, Brighton


Personally, I think there's a fairly real (as in genuinely possible) chance we'll lose all four games.

I don't say this WILL happen, but away to four top sides, it wouldn't be surprising.

Meaning we need to win the four home games to get to 82 and not get beat at WHU, and we MIGHT then squeeze into second

[1871 Royal]

Also who is to say these are the positions the teams will be in when we get around to playing them.

Yeah RIGHT.

We are playing the team that is 5 points clear at the top, that has been top or second for the whole season. They will "obviously" crash and burn and be a poor side when we play them.

West Ham may be stuttering, but they are still losing very, very few games, and like Reading, are heavy odds-on to finish in the top three.

Brighton are improving and have been averaging over 2 points per game over the last 12 games.

etc

Leeds MIGHT fall away, but then Forest (on a decent run) might be higher.

The simple fact is we are on our toughest run of the season and are almost certainly going to drop a lot of points in these 8 games

Obviously I don't mean saints or WH, nor Blackpool. There is too much of a point gap and Blackppol can't drop any points before saturday. Even someone without a brain can work that one out.

However 3 points and +1 GD separates 4th place Brighton and 9th place Hull, they could drop down a few places .....

Similar story with Birmingham and because we play them later I will widen the points mark, they are 6 points off 11th placed Palace, they could drop down .....

And again with Palace, they are only 4 points off 16th placed Burnely ( at that btw, FALLEN AWAY SO MUCH since we played them ..... hmmmm, I wonder if this is relevant) .... could fall ....

[Snowball]

1871-R

The positions might change fractionally over the next 8 games, but all that will be, more or less,
is the same 10-11 teams swapping places. The average league position is going to be the same
unless some team from outside that top lot suddenly puts together a run

1 Southampton 38 35 75
3 West Ham 37 21 68
4 Brighton 38 8 61
5 Blackpool 38 12 60
6 Middlesbrough 37 3 60
7 Birmingham 37 19 59
8 Cardiff 38 7 59
9 Hull 37 7 58
10 Leeds United 38 1 54
11 Crystal Palace 37 5 53


That is SCARY

[rfc2001]

1871-R

The positions might change fractionally over the next 8 games, but all that will be, more or less,
is the same 10-11 teams swapping places. The average league position is going to be the same
unless some team from outside that top lot suddenly puts together a run

1 Southampton 38 35 75
3 West Ham 37 21 68
4 Brighton 38 8 61
5 Blackpool 38 12 60
6 Middlesbrough 37 3 60
7 Birmingham 37 19 59
8 Cardiff 38 7 59
9 Hull 37 7 58
10 Leeds United 38 1 54
11 Crystal Palace 37 5 53


That is SCARY

With Reading playing the remainder against what are deemed the best teams in the league, we can have a positive approach and say its all in our hands

Reading are not the only team to be playing against other play off teams.
Reading do play better against better teams.
Leeds and palace are nothing special
The only game I fear is Brighton away

Reading for me though have to beat Blackpool or I could see a bad run coming!!

[Mr Angry]

As another thread that had nothing to do with statistics gets Snowballed to death..........


RIP.

[Maguire]

...and why does this cnut insist on typing 'mate' as 'm8'?
It's like some throw-back to when mobile phones were first invented.
Surely it can't be too difficult or tedious to spell a four letter word correctly...can it??

Hang on a minute...this is HNA? after all!

m8! Can't say i've noticed you before but you seem a little ir8.

Think you need to calm down a panic before it's too l8

[Maguire]

I wouldn't expect you to understand, Mags.

We need to hope that West Ham DON'T win away and continue their home draw form

Damn right Mags. Of course this will go right over your head, but we NEED to HOPE West Ham DRAW or LOSE and that they don't WIN.

[melonhead]

of course its possible we have passed through our best phase of the season, and will no longer get>2 points/game

a normal run in like this with normal form would see us winning 4 drawing 2, losing two ish

giving us 84 points and leaving us 3rd.

but you just cant tell, and thats the beauty.

we could go on another run, west ham could really blow up under the pressure.
its a rollercoaster. buckle up, and enjoy.


i fancy us in the playoffs, and i fancy us at wembley if it does happen.
if we end up losing again- id take the crushing dispointment and despair again, over bang averageness, anyday

[Snowball]

I wish I felt more confident.

But I think we virtually have to beat Blackpool and then not get beaten at West Ham

I can see us losing both, esp if the talisman is out. (No predictions, just feeling a bit sick...)




We had a great second half at Barnsley, but by all accounts we were poor first half?
We weren't exactly magnificent at Peterboro and not-so-good at Doncaster...
that's 5 out of the last 6 halfs where we didn't look like world-beaters.


We really need a big result v Blackpool to reinvigorate the team.

[Gordons Cumming]

We had a great second half at Barnsley, but by all accounts we were poor first half?
We weren't exactly magnificent at Peterboro and not-so-good at Doncaster...
that's 5 out of the last 6 halfs where we didn't look like world-beaters.

..................and all the other teams in the league have great halves all the time.

Did you see West Ham on the box the other day?