Swansea-Reading Results Comparison

[Snowball]

Nothing "naive" about it.


I think you should go on the OS and re-watch the oxf*rd
SHAMBLES that was RFC home to SCUNTHORPE in Game 1

Then take a look at Portsmouth away, then Forest home,
then look at Leicester away, where, despite us scoring two
quality goals and one amazing clearance by Mills, we were
mostly played off the park and should have been well-beaten.

We were pretty crap at the start of the season. We also scraped
a win in the 120th minute at Torquay, managed to lose to Northampton

We lost 3 games in the first 9, 5 of our first 14, 6 of the first 17.

Our first 26 games (inc cups) were P26 W8 D10 L8




In the first 23 games we were on target to get 68 points

In the second 23 games we were playing like a side getting automatic (86 points)

We were headed for a finish a full 9 points behind Swansea.

Our second half performance was worth a finish 2 points ahead of swansea.


Our season has been exceptional with the Gylfi (and shambles) stage, the floundering stage,
finally getting our act together (442 Hunt and Long) then bringing in Elwood.

You cannot assess the current worth of Reading FC based on the whole season. The current RFC
would beat the side who lost to Scunthorpe, probably 2-0 or 3-0


First Half of the season was:

1 23 13 8 2 42 14 +28 47 2.04 ppg Queens Park Rangers 2
2 23 12 4 7 38 26 +12 40 1.74 ppg Cardiff City
3 23 11 6 6 39 32 +7 39 1.70 ppg Norwich City
4 24 12 4 8 29 23 +6 40 1.67 ppg Swansea City (on target for 77)
5 24 11 7 6 44 40 +4 40 1.67 ppg Leeds United
6 21 8 9 4 29 19 +10 33 1.57 ppg Nottingham Forest
7 22 9 6 7 42 34 +8 33 1.50 ppg Watford
8 23 8 10 5 35 25 +10 34 1.48 ppg Reading (68 in a season)

Second Half was:

1 23 12 9 2 44 26 +18 45 1.96 Norwich City
2 23 12 7 4 42 26 +16 43 1.87 Reading (an 86 point season)
3 22 12 4 6 40 19 +21 40 1.82 Swansea City (an 84 point season)
4 23 11 8 4 29 18 +11 41 1.78 Queens Park Rangers
5 23 11 7 5 38 28 +10 40 1.74 Cardiff City

The turn-round is .24 points per game, 11 points per season

[Royal With Cheese]

Oh my giddy aunt.

[RG30]

Therefore if Swansea win it will be actually be an upset. which the bookies are (cautiously) predicting.

Swansea are favourites though

[Mr Angry]

Results comparisons are meaningless UNLESS they are for play-off finals, where the 2 sides put out exactly the same teams in exactly the same conditions as are going to play on Monday.

As there isn't such a comparison (as this is a unique match), the only purpose of this thread is to provide yet another stat vvank vehicle for you know who.

[Ian Royal]

Swansea have been higher in the league than us on all but two / three occasions, since the all important game 10.

We've better form over the last 10, possibly 12 games. They've better form over the last 5 - 6 games inclusive or exclusive of play off semi finals.

You can prove either side is the favourite for this match with the right choice of stats, which is why the stats mean bugger all when it comes down to it, and why this match is balanced on a knife edge. In my opinion the odds are stacked marginally in Swansea's favour, in other people's they may be stacked marginally in ours.

The reason for this is because it's all about opinion and stats are simply too restricted and simplistic to give any strong answers. Football is far too complicated to quantify with stats, certainly without the aid of extremely powerful tools like Prozone, and even those are exactly that, a tool, nothing more.

Anyone who tells you different is him/her self, a tool.

[RobRoyal]

Nothing "naive" about it.


I think you should go on the OS and re-watch the oxf*rd
SHAMBLES that was RFC home to SCUNTHORPE in Game 1

Then take a look at Portsmouth away, then Forest home,
then look at Leicester away, where, despite us scoring two
quality goals and one amazing clearance by Mills, we were
mostly played off the park and should have been well-beaten.

We were pretty crap at the start of the season. We also scraped
a win in the 120th minute at Torquay, managed to lose to Northampton

We lost 3 games in the first 9, 5 of our first 14, 6 of the first 17.

Our first 26 games (inc cups) were P26 W8 D10 L8




In the first 23 games we were on target to get 68 points

In the second 23 games we were playing like a side getting automatic (86 points)

We were headed for a finish a full 9 points behind Swansea.

Our second half performance was worth a finish 2 points ahead of swansea.


Our season has been exceptional with the Gylfi (and shambles) stage, the floundering stage,
finally getting our act together (442 Hunt and Long) then bringing in Elwood.

You cannot assess the current worth of Reading FC based on the whole season. The current RFC
would beat the side who lost to Scunthorpe, probably 2-0 or 3-0


First Half of the season was:

1 23 13 8 2 42 14 +28 47 2.04 ppg Queens Park Rangers 2
2 23 12 4 7 38 26 +12 40 1.74 ppg Cardiff City
3 23 11 6 6 39 32 +7 39 1.70 ppg Norwich City
4 24 12 4 8 29 23 +6 40 1.67 ppg Swansea City (on target for 77)
5 24 11 7 6 44 40 +4 40 1.67 ppg Leeds United
6 21 8 9 4 29 19 +10 33 1.57 ppg Nottingham Forest
7 22 9 6 7 42 34 +8 33 1.50 ppg Watford
8 23 8 10 5 35 25 +10 34 1.48 ppg Reading (68 in a season)

Second Half was:

1 23 12 9 2 44 26 +18 45 1.96 Norwich City
2 23 12 7 4 42 26 +16 43 1.87 Reading (an 86 point season)
3 22 12 4 6 40 19 +21 40 1.82 Swansea City (an 84 point season)
4 23 11 8 4 29 18 +11 41 1.78 Queens Park Rangers
5 23 11 7 5 38 28 +10 40 1.74 Cardiff City

The turn-round is .24 points per game, 11 points per season

You are utterly fixated on McDermott's comments regarding the time the team "clicked," but I'm sure it's possible for you to imagine Rodgers saying something like " I never really felt like the team was my own until X date" which would give an equal rationale for saying that some period of time other the last 31 games represents Swansea's true quality.

[Ian Royal]

You also can't watch the first ~twelve games of the season on the OS unless they've added them in the last month. So I doubt snowy has followed his own advice.

[Snowball]

You also can't watch the first ~twelve games of the season on the OS unless they've added them in the last month. So I doubt snowy has followed his own advice.

Now why would I need to watch the shambles again?

I remember it from being live. (You should try it.)


The point is, sides may evolve and improve over a season.
For example Swansea's second 23 games were a bit better than their first 23

But in Reading FC's case there were VERY dramatic changes.

Games 01-04 Gylfi 1.25 ppg
Games 05-15 No Gylfi, trying to replace him. 1.54 ppg

Games 16-46 Giving up on "replacing" and reverting (mostly) to 442 1.77 ppg
Games 16-46 The re-emergence of Hunt and the Long-Hunt partnership 1.77 ppg
Games 19-46 Signing of Elwood, big improvement in results 1.89 ppg overall, but 2.05 ppg when he started


1.25 points per game. CHANGE
1.54 points per game. CHANGE
1.89 points per game. CHANGE


P22 W12 D9 L1 44-24 GD=20 Elwood Starting
P05 W02 D0 L3 05-05 GD=00 Lost to Swansea, Lost to QPR, Lost to Norwich



8 Defeats in 24 Games 33.33% Defeats Elwood Not Playing
1 Defeats in 22 Games 04.55% Defeats Elwood Starting

[Snowball]

League Form in 2011 (Plus PO Semis)


2 Played 25 13 Wins (52%) 8 Draws 4 Defeats (16%) 45-26 +19 43 1.88 ppg (86.48 season) Reading
3 Played 24 13 Wins (54%) 5 Draws 6 Defeats (25%) 43-20 +23 40 1.83 ppg (84.18 season) Swansea

[Mr Angry]

And therefore................what????

[Snowball]

And therefore................what????

Since January 3rd 2011 we have had a FAR better league record than Swansea, a whole six points gained
PLUS we have beaten two premiership sides, lost 1-0 to a side in next year's Champions League. Then
we topped it off with two clean sheets versus Cardiff and a 3-0 aggregate win.

We are a MUCH improved team. Swansea are a very good, fairly steady team.

When we DIDN'T play Elwood we lost two games to them 1-0. The Elwood stats
are overwhelming "proof" that we are a massively better side with him playing.

Not a LITTLE bit better, a LOT better, a huge amount like 20 points a season, the difference
between winning the division and coming in mid-table.

It's my opinion that Reading FC should be strong favourites for the PO game, that they would have got automatic
promotion had they had this side from Day One of the season, probably would have won this league.

Yes I did say that. Reading FC have been averaging almost exactly 2 ppg since January 3rd
and the ppg amassed with Elwood playing, if over a whole season, would have put us on 94-95-96 points
and QPR got 88. (The unknown is whether he could have played v QPR)

IF both sides play to their top form at Wembley, IMO it's the "top side" (Reading) versus 4th (Swansea).


PLEASE don't remind me that QPR won the league and Norwich were second. I know that. I am saying that in 2011 the Reading FC
side is way, WAY better and if they had got this team together before the season started they would have been champions and Swansea therefore 4th.

First v 4th in a one-off game, the "4th" team (Swansea) can still win. Happens often.

But if Elwood is fully fit and plays at close to his best, I believe we will win 2-1 or 2-0. If he's on top form
and Kebe plays and has a good game, I believe we will win even more comfortably, 3-0 or even 4-0.

[Svlad Cjelli]

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

It's a one-off game, on a neutral venue.

Past performances are utterly irrelevant.

[Snowball]

It's a one-off game, on a neutral venue.

Past performances are utterly irrelevant.

So it doesn't matter if L-Wood doesn't play?

(Past performances are irrelevant, right?)

[Svlad Cjelli]

It's a one-off game, on a neutral venue.

Past performances are utterly irrelevant.

So it doesn't matter if L-Wood doesn't play?

(Past performances are irrelevant, right?)

No idea - whoever takes his place might be our weak link, or whoever takes his place might score a winning hat-trick.

In the same way that Leighterwood might get an injury in his first tackle or that same first tackle might be mistimed and see him get sent off. There's no way of knowing.

That's what's good about football, it's played on a pitch, not a spreadsheet.

[Z175]

Snowball have you compiled the list of Shane Long socring runs for me yet?

I.e. When Long doesnt score for a few games but then grabs a goal or two, statistically how many will he score in the next game?

[Mr Angry]

It's a one-off game, on a neutral venue.

Past performances are utterly irrelevant.

So it doesn't matter if L-Wood doesn't play?

(Past performances are irrelevant, right?)

No idea - whoever takes his place might be our weak link, or whoever takes his place might score a winning hat-trick.

In the same way that Leighterwood might get an injury in his first tackle or that same first tackle might be mistimed and see him get sent off. There's no way of knowing.

That's what's good about football, it's played on a pitch, not a spreadsheet.

+1

I think we should be going into the Final as favourites due to the historic significance of the team with the better record of the last 10 games winning the final; all the comparisons in the World about comparative results between Reading and Swansea this season are, in a gentle and non-agressive way - totally meaningless.

[glenroyal]

That's what's good about football, it's played on a pitch, not a spreadsheet.

+1

I think we should be going into the Final as favourites [....]
comparative results between Reading and Swansea this season are,
in a gentle and non-agressive way - totally meaningless.

+ another

As I said when people were qualifying their predictions with
my heart says ... but my head says ...

It's a good job players and fans bring both hearts and heads to the actual game.
UUURRRrrrzzz ... come on No.13

[swansea jack]

Snowball - are you a Yank?

[Snowball]

Snowball - are you a Yank?

No, I'm a South Walian.

[moo]

I have abused Snowball in the past, and while I don't agree 100% with his stats at least he starts threads that actually have a bit of content for debate and maybe people should lay off him a bit !

Beats posts about being a true fan, passion, and how crap Long and Kebe are