Magic Number to Survive Relegation

[royalsteve]

42 is the answer to everything.

However, I'll take goal difference one better than the team that sit in 18th come full times on the final day.

actually thats not true - only one has a team in the prem gone down with that many point and only twice with 40

[royalsteve]

I think the points tally is going to be really low this year, its normally 3 from 4/5 but now theres about 7 teams in the mix.

I would take a punt at 35/36 being enough!

id say 37 might do it

[royalsteve]

Our magic number is 45 as that's the number of points we need to be certain of finishing outside the bottom 3, this is obviously moot as teams around us have to play each other but ballz to working that out

Magic number to stay up is way harder than magic number to go up/win title

we wont need anywhere near 45!!

[Ian Royal]

Wasn't the magic number Royal Chicago's bag?

There's way too many games left and permutations to try and work this out accurately. Silver Fox is right in that it's basically winning all of our games. And until we're outside the relegation zone, or there are few enough games left to actually work out the permutations of who is playing who, it's going to stay that way.

[SydenhamRoyal]

17
3 will not

[Ascotexgunner]

37 IMVHO

[SPARTA]

42 is the answer to everything.

However, I'll take goal difference one better than the team that sit in 18th come full times on the final day.

actually thats not true - only one has a team in the prem gone down with that many point and only twice with 40

isn't that the point? 42 points would almost certainly keep us up..

[Ian Royal]

It's not the magic number though. Because the magic number is the one that guarantees us survival.

[JS28ZoD]

37 will be the magic number I think, the countdown is on for 5 wins & 3 draws!

[Ascotexgunner]

It's not the magic number though. Because the magic number is the one that guarantees us survival.

In that case.......50 should do it.

[Silver Fox]

There seems to be some confusion here between Reading FC's magic number and the mythical number of points "required for safety"

[RoyalChicagoFC]

^that

There's way too many games left and permutations to try and work this out accurately.

Accuracy isn't the issue --I (or for that matter anyone with at least a half a brain) could crunch the numbers inside of ten minutes

The issue lies in the fact that that the numbers wouldn't tell us much other than "we're [sic; et seq.] chasing the table with roughly two fifths of the season left to play" and "if we win 7 or 8 of our remaining fixtures, then history and the table as it stands suggest that we should stay up without much worry"

Nothing that a glance at the table right now doesn't reveal, in other words, and as you note it's all to do with the significant portion of the season remaining to be played, plus head to head matchups, with multiple possible outcomes, between other relegation candidates (and as it is, we're still assured of remaining, for at least the next two rounds in the league, in contention for a title that in fact we would stand no chance of winning even if we were to take all remaining points on offer)

With 10 games to go, or better yet 8, the numbers will be much more useful than now as far as lending useful perspective goes

[gazzamills]

Have a go on the BBC predictor...a bit of fun, but might give you some sort of idea.

[Ian Royal]

There seems to be some confusion here between Reading FC's magic number and the mythical number of points "required for safety"

Or the Magic Number and the magic number. If you will.

[Ian Royal]

Have a go on the BBC predictor...a bit of fun, but might give you some sort of idea.

There's too many games to work it out properly in less than a couple of hours work, and no one is going to do that. Besides with so many games left, the Magic Number is pointless, as we'll never actually have to hit it in reality to survive. In title /play off chases it's the number you count down to being guaranteed the spot you need.

Currently, and until we move out of the relegation zone, it's more points than we can actually get.

[Ascotexgunner]

Have a go on the BBC predictor...a bit of fun, but might give you some sort of idea.

If that predictor has anything to do with Lawrenson we will probably have a projection of 20 points.

[Sydneyroyal]

Looking at the current averages of points per game: Soton are on target to get 38, Newcastle ave .91 points a game, heading towards 34/5, Villa .87 leaving them on 33 and Reading .82, say 32 or 33. Extending these averages the bottom six teams should all be 38 points or below with the bottom three on 33 or less. But with variables of change of form, luck and scoring from handballs and supposing Reading can take points at home against QPR, Wigan, Villa and Soton the other team's averages will decrease where as Reading's should improve. On average from current form this season, 34 could well be enough to avoid relegation, 36 would almost definitely keep Reading up, but 50 is the magic number at the moment.
I'm saying 35 to stay up with QPR, Wigan, Villa and Newcastle all finishing below us, given the terrible runs most of these teams are having - but football is a funny old game.

[redscot]

Could someone explain in detail the above post? (Please use plain English.)

[royalsroyalsroyals92]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/footba ... ished.html

[MmmMonsterMunch]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/blackburn-rovers/8970023/Blackburn-Rovers-bottom-of-Premier-League-at-Christmas-where-have-other-festive-basement-sides-finished.html

I think the most depressing thing in that graphic is seeing that Reading were 12th at Xmas and still went down.