Play off odds

[Nameless]

Wednesday, being the only team who were in the play offs last season, seem to be criminally underrated.

They are the only team with a proven record of failure in the playoffs in recent years. Must count heavily against them.

[Greatwesternline]

Fulham 2.2
Reading 3.3
Draw 4.2

Ok...the most basic odds calculation using goal expectancy (Poisson distribution).
using stats from http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... and2&tid=f
Will be less accurate as it pools goals at 4 and above but not a huge difference.

Obvs this is based over 90 mins at a neutral venue. You'd have to factor in home/
away, current_score etc for the individual legs.

Love this.

Couple of questions, how come the percentages add up to 99.57 and not 100 at the end?
Also, how do you get from the percentages to the decimal odds?

[BR0B0T]

Fulham 2.2
Reading 3.3
Draw 4.2

Ok...the most basic odds calculation using goal expectancy (Poisson distribution).
using stats from http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... and2&tid=f
Will be less accurate as it pools goals at 4 and above but not a huge difference.

Obvs this is based over 90 mins at a neutral venue. You'd have to factor in home/
away, current_score etc for the individual legs.

Love this.

Couple of questions, how come the percentages add up to 99.57 and not 100 at the end?
Also, how do you get from the percentages to the decimal odds?

Hopefully just rounding errors. I don't use excel so
there may be an error in the workings (method works
fine in python/pandas/etc).

With some low scoring teams, you may want to use a
zero-inflated Poisson (think Stoke under Pulis).

odds: 1/(percentage/100)

[John Smith]

The pessimist in me says our away form, along with general form in the playoffs will have us beaten easily in the final

[Readingfanman]

Fulham 2.2
Reading 3.3
Draw 4.2

Ok...the most basic odds calculation using goal expectancy (Poisson distribution).
using stats from http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... and2&tid=f
Will be less accurate as it pools goals at 4 and above but not a huge difference.

Obvs this is based over 90 mins at a neutral venue. You'd have to factor in home/
away, current_score etc for the individual legs.

Having done this before, the Poisson model is a good starting point, but as you say it doesnt account for home/away. Reading at home are a very different side to Reading away. I believe you need to use home attack strength v away defence weakness. This would give Fulham a much bigger edge at home than Reading due to Reading's dreadful away defence.

[CountryRoyal]

Does that take into account though that actually Fulham are only 12th in the table on form?

2nd for away, both facts slightly negating our strengths and weaknesses home and away.

[Stranded]

Does that take into account though that actually Fulham are only 12th in the table on form?

2nd for away, both facts slightly negating our strengths and weaknesses home and away.

What form table are you looking at?

Over the last 6 games, Fulham are 2nd, we're 5th.

[genome]

That may be so, but in form table over the last 45 games we're 3rd.

[CountryRoyal]

Does that take into account though that actually Fulham are only 12th in the table on form?

2nd for away, both facts slightly negating our strengths and weaknesses home and away.

What form table are you looking at?

Over the last 6 games, Fulham are 2nd, we're 5th.

Oops. Seem to have missed out the word "home".

HOME
2. Reading W16 D5 L2 PTS 53 GD +19
12. Fulham W10 D8 L5 PTS 38 GD +13

AWAY
2. Fulham W11 D6 L5 PTS 39 GD +14
8. Reading W9 D2 L11 PTS 29 GD -17

[jd82]

Does anyone have any stats about the relative performance of 'in form' or 'out of form' teams going into the playoffs.. I suspect it's one of those footballing myths the pundits like to perpetu8, and quite frankly cannot be bothered to check myself.

[Silver Fox]

I think the biggest red herring is "our playoff form" considering I don't think there's a single person even on the non-playing side still involved from our last playoff campaign

[Readingfanman]

Does anyone have any stats about the relative performance of 'in form' or 'out of form' teams going into the playoffs.. I suspect it's one of those footballing myths the pundits like to perpetu8, and quite frankly cannot be bothered to check myself.

You could spin it anyway you like because there's no general accepted "form" amount of games. Does it account the last 3, last 6, last 12?

[Nameless]

I think the biggest red herring is "our playoff form" considering I don't think there's a single person even on the non-playing side still involved from our last playoff campaign

Jordan Obita had a first team squad number and Leigertwood was a player and is now on the back room staff.

The likes of Watson and Kelly were coming through the ranks.

Nigel Howe was CE and Sue Hewett was club secretary.

Not a lot to give much of a form guide !

[Nameless]

Does anyone have any stats about the relative performance of 'in form' or 'out of form' teams going into the playoffs.. I suspect it's one of those footballing myths the pundits like to perpetu8, and quite frankly cannot be bothered to check myself.

You could spin it anyway you like because there's no general accepted "form" amount of games. Does it account the last 3, last 6, last 12?

The only form that gives you a cast iron idea is form over the next 90 minutes.

[jd82]

I think the biggest red herring is "our playoff form" considering I don't think there's a single person even on the non-playing side still involved from our last playoff campaign

Defo.. file under 'bogey teams' 'never win on Sundays' etc etc

[10539.4 Miles Away]

I think the biggest red herring is "our playoff form" considering I don't think there's a single person even on the non-playing side still involved from our last playoff campaign

Defo.. file under 'bogey teams' 'never win on Sundays' etc etc

And the Manager of the month curse. And that bullshit article about Bill Oddie. Saying that, football is full of superstitions and footballers aren't reknowned for their intelligence so some of these things could have a tiny bearing on one or two of the players, you'd hope not obviously.

[CountryRoyal]

Does anyone have any stats about the relative performance of 'in form' or 'out of form' teams going into the playoffs.. I suspect it's one of those footballing myths the pundits like to perpetu8, and quite frankly cannot be bothered to check myself.

You could spin it anyway you like because there's no general accepted "form" amount of games. Does it account the last 3, last 6, last 12?

I thought there was a general "form" amount of games, mainly being 6.

[BR0B0T]

I think the biggest red herring is "our playoff form" considering I don't think there's a single person even on the non-playing side still involved from our last playoff campaign

Defo.. file under 'bogey teams' 'never win on Sundays' etc etc

And the Manager of the month curse. And that bullshit article about Bill Oddie. Saying that, football is full of superstitions and footballers aren't reknowned for their intelligence so some of these things could have a tiny bearing on one or two of the players, you'd hope not obviously.

'greed....historical head to heads make little difference
esp if the playing staff are totally different

Manager of the month is just someone hitting a purple
patch and then reverting to mean...etc

[BR0B0T]

The calcul8d odds from the previous page adjusted
to exclude the draw i.e. who qualifies

It's to 100% so you'd have to account for the bookmaker's
margin. Also, doesn't include last game of the season, goals
are pooled at 4+ (rather than 5+), and there are rounding
errors.



workings

1/ (odds/(100 - draw percentage))

[exileinleeds]

I think the biggest red herring is "our playoff form" considering I don't think there's a single person even on the non-playing side still involved from our last playoff campaign

Defo.. file under 'bogey teams' 'never win on Sundays' etc etc

*Stands and fukkin applauds general common sense*

All these stats are based on data mining which gaming companies invest large amounts of money to take billions and billions off you....it almost looks like you can predict the outcome of the game....so making money should be easy yes? And you can do it from the convenience of your phone while sitting in the pub, consuming liquid brain fog, whilst willy wanging with your mates? Yep... that will pay for my super yacht....

Bottom line is: When most of the playing/backroom staff signed up to RFC, they probably couldn't point to Reading on a map. Ask John Swift about Bolton, Wembley, RFC and the premier league- and he would probably shrug with as much comprehension as baby brendy (Ghengis)...

I would say what is far more significant is the mentality of going into a tournament. If play-offs are different to the league, then more so for a play off- far fewer games, a lot less room for errors.

Stam (and the team he pretty much assembled) has of course vastly exceeded all our expectations. Top ten being the goal we were set- but play-offs haven't been achieved by way of a late burst of coming together of tactics/team....it is where we have been for much of the season (after a slowish start when they were learning).....Stam has known for months that the season was going to end with a tournament....

We now know Stam can assemble a squad of players, teach them a new way of playing, achieve a level of consistency that gives us a false third posistion....has he had enough of a 'pre-tournament' to coach and install the mentality needed by the players to win the next three games? Personally, if I were looking for stats, I would be looking at Stam/staff/players and seeing what sort of experience they have of tournaments....Imho Wagner has approached it by trying to change stuff/rest/avoid injuries....and they go into the tournament on a pretty negative roll (and yes, it probably was only their fans that thought they would walk the league after 10 games) but....


Call me nuts, it aint like I know a lot about lots...but I have actual real money on us being promoted.

But hey ho, I is working on a different algo to the betting companies.