Hahnemann and penalties

[Royal Jelly]

By the law of averages he is due a helluva run on saving penalties now that's for sure.

So, starting now.....

Unfortunately there is no such thing as the law of averages, if you spin a coin 100 times and it comes up heads a 100 times, the odds are even that it will come up heads again the 101st time. This is why many people lose money backing favourites.

I can't agree, if you managed to get 100 heads in a row I think I'd put everything I had on heads. I'd also make sure I kept hold of that particular coin, sounds like it could come in handy.

I know what you mean though, and of course you're right.

[cmonurz]

07/08
Portsmouth (a) Muntari
Blackburn (a) McCarthy
Sunderland (h) Chopra

06/07
Tottenham (a) Keane
Arsenal (a) Silva
Newcastle (a) Martins
Tottenham (h) Keane
Arsenal (h) Henry
Villa (a) Angel

That, I think, is the list of penalties against Reading in the Premier League, all successful, 9 in total.

[pearcetom]

then there was that penalty that dean ashton missed against him when he was playing for norwich.......just thought i would add that

[Barry the bird boggler]

Well since Hahnemann joined us I know of 21 penalties that he's let in:

Derby - Dec 02
Leicester - Jan 03
Ipswich - Aug 03
Boston - Aug 03
Derby - Aug 03
Preston - Oct 03
Stoke - Dec 03
Rotherham - Feb 04
Coventry - Oct 04
Palace - Jan 06
Crewe - Feb 06
Sheff W - Apr 06
Villa - Aug 06
Arsenal - Oct 06
Spurs - Nov 06
Newcastle - Dec 06
Arsenal - Mar 07
Spurs - Apr 07
Portsmouth - Sep 07
Blackburn - Oct 07
Sunderland - Dec 07

So if the above list is the complete monty and adding the 3 he's saved and the miss at Norwich that means roughly one in every six that he faces doesn't go in or, alternatively, he saves roughly 1 in 8

However the worrying fact is that the last penalty he actually saved was at Gillingham in Feb 04 which is 13 efforts ago (14 if you include the Norwich miss)... therefore he's long overdue a save.

[LWJ]

07/08
Portsmouth (a) Muntari
Blackburn (a) McCarthy
Sunderland (h) Chopra

06/07
Tottenham (a) Keane
Arsenal (a) Silva
Newcastle (a) Martins
Tottenham (h) Keane
Arsenal (h) Henry
Villa (a) Angel

That, I think, is the list of penalties against Reading in the Premier League, all successful, 9 in total.

and most of the names are class strikers, i would put money on them scoring against any keeper in the premiship

[cmonurz]

You would put money on Reina, or Van Der Saar, or James, or Cech, not saving any of them?

[toppy]

You would put money on Reina, or Van Der Saar, or James, or Cech, not saving any of them?

Yes, the striker should score more often than not

[Katie Marsden]

A rather more concerning statistic is Sonko has given away 5 of the 9 penalties Reading have conceded in the Premiership.

Taking into account he's only played 32 Premiership games that's absolutely appalling.

[Whistle]

An equally concerning stat is the number of pens we miss.

Barry the Boogler - count them please.

Lita's missed 2, Kitson 2, Shorey 2, Little, Sidwell, Doyle, never let Harper near one. I think Hunty and Murty are the only 100%ers and Hunty looks like an accident waiting to happen.

It does make a difference esp in PL - at either end - and it ought to be coach-able.

Bring back Morley and Mautone

[silas]

Marcus's record at stopping penalty kicks is appalling. Robert Green at West Ham has saved more penalties this season than Marcus has in his entire career at Reading.

To be fair though Green had an awful record of saving penalties before this season IIRC.

[Barry the bird boggler]

Results of the penalties we've had awarded since Aug 2002 (excluding shoot outs). This is a close as I can get from the records I've got to hand, its possible I may have missed one or two but if anyone can improve on it please feel free!

Coventry - 1 scored - Cureton - Aug 02
Leicester - 1 scored - Cureton - Aug 02
Bradford - 1 missed - Forster - Oct 02
Preston - 1 scored - Shorey - Apr 02
Preston - 1 scored -Goater - Oct 03
Millwall - 1 missed - Hughes - Nov 03
Rotherham - 1 scored - Kitson - Aug 04
Gillingham - 2 scored - Kitson x 2 - Sep 04
Sunderland - 1 scored - Kitson - Apr 05
Millwall - 1 scored - Kitson - Aug 05
Coventry - 1 missed - Lita - Sep 05
Palace - 2 missed - Lita, Little - Sep 05
Stoke - 1 scored - Kitson - Oct 05
Brighton - 1 scored - Kitson - Dec 05
Millwall - 1 missed - Kitson - Dec 05
Cardiff - 1 scored - Kitson - Jan 06
West Brom - 1 scored - Doyle - Jan 06
Sheff U - 1 missed - Kitson - Feb 06
Stoke - 1 scored - Doyle - Apr 06
QPR - 1 scored - Murty - Apr 06
Man U - 1 scored - Doyle - Sep 06
Fulham - 1 scored - Doyle - Nov 06
Bolton - 1 scored - Doyle - Apr 07
West Ham - 1 missed - Doyle - Sep 07
Portsmouth - 1 missed - Shorey - Sep 07
Liverpool - 1 scored - Hunt - Dec 07
Birmingham - 1 scored - Hunt - Dec 07

So thats a total of

29 penalties awarded (incl. 1 retake)
20 scored
9 missed (incl. 1 retake)

Success ratio is therefore approx 69%

Success ratio of players taking them....

Cureton - 2 taken, 2 scored - 100% success
Doyle - 6 taken, 5 scored - 83% success
Forster - 1 taken, 0 scored - 0% success
Goater - 1 taken, 1 scored - 100% success
Hughes - 1 taken, 0 scored - 0% success
Hunt - 2 taken, 2 scored - 100% success
Lita - 2 taken, 0 scored - 0% success
Little - 1 taken, 0 scored - 0% success
Kitson - 10 taken, 8 scored - 80% success
Murty - 1 taken, 1 scored - 100% success
Shorey - 2 taken, 1 scored - 50% success

Therefore, of the players still at the club you'd want to see Hunt and Murty stepping up to the mark as they have 100% records. More realistically though Kitson and Doyle are well proven with 80%+ success rates.

Personally I still think Doyle is the best overall, but in the long run who cares who takes them as long as they go in!

[lozz2601]

An equally concerning stat is the number of pens we miss.

Barry the Boogler - count them please.

Lita's missed 2, Kitson 2, Shorey 2, Little, Sidwell, Doyle, never let Harper near one. I think Hunty and Murty are the only 100%ers and Hunty looks like an accident waiting to happen.
It does make a difference esp in PL - at either end - and it ought to be coach-able.

Bring back Morley and Mautone

He always seems relatively confident with where he's going with it, which can only be a good thing.
Besides, I hear rumours he is a penalty specialist or something?

[Ian Royal]

So Kitson has 6 out of 8 penalties? Not bad. No wonder he was peeved about not taking the one against Liverpool.

To those who say Hahnemann never gets near penalties, you're blind, he almost got a finger to a very well taken penalty last but one I think it was.

And there is no law of averages in saving penalties. Especially now players like Ronaldo cheat when taking them. The quality of pen takers in the prem is so high that you have to be extremely good or extremely lucky to save one. Marcus is neither, but that doesn't mean he's rubbish.

[Millsy]

IIRC he has saved every penalty which was on target but not converted.

[Barry the bird boggler]

Strangely, between Oct 04 and Jan 06 it seems we didn't concede a penalty, how unusual is this for a team?

[Whistle]

Thanks for the list - which seems to prove the point we're worse than average at both ends on pens.

I'm sure Sidwell has a miss in his locker - soon after he joined - and I think Shorey missed one before pompey.

[Shaka's Giant Hands]

Cureton - 2 taken, 2 scored - 100% success

Didn't he miss one against Wigan Play off Final? If memory serves me right I thought he missed a few?

On another note, reading Hahnemanamanaman's Premiership diary he talks about the Villa penalty and mentions that he did a bit of research as to which way he should go. Also mentions that he felt unlucky on the Martins one up at St James Park as the grass gave way under foot slightly...then again he also says that kicking is one of his strong points!

[Whistle]

Barry's analysis starts at 2002 - after the p/o semi.

[Shaka's Giant Hands]

Barry's analysis starts at 2002 - after the p/o semi.

D'oh! Was the Wigan game really that long ago!

[HighburyRoyale]

There's a save.

Fat lot of good it did, but at least it will help his stats a little!