We've got the whole world in our hands

[PlasticRoyale]

There is no data to suggest that because a team 'needs to win' they will get a favourable result against a team who's season is effectively over. I've checked the data from every season since the premiership started and if anything it shows that teams that 'need to win' in the last few weeks do slightly worse. A more accurate statement would be they're no more likely to win than they are at any other stage of the season.

The 'need to win' argument assumes that

1. They weren't trying last game, when they also needed the win
2. They could play better if they did bother to try. Having not shown any ability through out the season it's suddenly going to magically appear on demand

The data covers teams from the top three leagues who are chasing promotion/title/play-off place or trying to avoid relegation. My primary source of income is from gambling so i'm confident in the reliability of the figures. The balance of money tends to get placed on teams that 'need to win'. This is reflected in skewed bookmakers odds. If you can price a game up (to a 100% book) there are opportunites to profit (based on the results of your ratings system falling within expected confidence levels ETC). However 'value' bets are rare in the prem.

Ramble over.

[seahawk10]

You have to be encouraged by the shape of the team this week. On the road and there were very few times that I felt Wigan threatened. Bikey in the midfield lends a certain toughness that we have been missing. Come on boys, bring it home!

[PEARCEY]

You have to be encouraged by the shape of the team this week. On the road and there were very few times that I felt Wigan threatened. Bikey in the midfield lends a certain toughness that we have been missing. Come on boys, bring it home!

Yes it does as Bikey offers the back four more protection which his physical presence in midfield. However we have got to start scoring some ruddy goals from somewhere

[Chaney]

Wolsey is correct.

4 points = safe

Basically that just assumes that Bolton lose at Chelsea. If they get a point there then 4 points is potentially not enough

did you see Bolton at Spurs yesterday?...29 efforts on goal, 11 on target for the home team, and Bergatov with a free header from 6 yards over the bar, there is no way they will get anything but a good hiding at the bridge

[Alan Partridge]

I've never known a poster change views on the weekly basis more than Jay

[mr_number]

depending on which tottenham team show up, wigan may have been our toughest game of the last three... motd seemed to show us creating chances, and with a clean sheet, i think we should have some confidence going into next weekend. fingers crossed...

[Coppelled Streets]

I've never known a poster change views on the weekly basis more than Jay

See the Derby thread.

On one hand if Birmingham lose their last two games we stay up. It's possible, and that gives me hope.

On the other hand I can't see us picking up one more point and I can see Birmingham winning one more.

[weybridgewanderer]

I've never known a poster change views on the weekly basis more than Jay

See the Derby thread.

On one hand if Birmingham lose their last two games we stay up. It's possible, and that gives me hope.

On the other hand I can't see us picking up one more point and I can see Birmingham winning one more.

if brum lose their last 2 games then, unless we beat tottenham fulham will move above us.

to beat anyone we have to score goals. what are we, 8 goals in the last 15 league games?

[Rev Algenon Stickleback H]

I've never known a poster change views on the weekly basis more than Jay

See the Derby thread.

On one hand if Birmingham lose their last two games we stay up. It's possible, and that gives me hope.

On the other hand I can't see us picking up one more point and I can see Birmingham winning one more.

if brum lose their last 2 games then, unless we beat tottenham fulham will move above us.

we'd only need to draw, not win. Fulham v Birmingham isn't literally a 6 pointer.

[ArfnipIsARoyal]

I can see us beating Tottenham who have been less than convincing this season, admittedly we have too, but Spurs have nothing to play for now and with the proverbial rocket I can see us snatching all 3 here. Also I can see Fulham beating Brum and Bolton possibly edging Sunderland who have nothing to play for. Those results would sort out the relegation spots before the trip to Derby.

[Ian Royal]

The fact of the matter is that if we fail to get any more points we are down, because either Brum beat Fulham and go above us, Fulham beat Brum and go above us, or it's a draw and Brum go above us.

1 point and a draw for brum and Fulham keeps it as is.
1 point and a Fulham win, means we are fighting off teams big style.

We need to beat Spurs if we want to be fighting to stay out of the zone against Derby, rather than in it, because I just can't see Fulham and Brum drawing.

I can see Bolton getting points at Sunderland, which if we don't beat Spurs takes them clear enough from us. IMO.

It is going all the way to the wire and it will be incredibly tight.

6 points and we're clear, but can anyone see us actually winning both? I'm struggling.

[papereyes]

My judgement before Wigan was 4 or 5 points which leaves us REALLY vulnerable to teams getting two wins and jumping us.

[Ian Royal]

Indeed, both Fulham and Birmingham's last games are winnable, it only takes one to over take us. Unless we can get a point and Bolton lose their remaining games.

[Arch]

Exciting, isn't it?

[Ian Royal]

Exciting, isn't it?

yep.

What doesn't kill us, makes us stronger.

[Ian Royal]

Well, except for Polio.


and strokes...


and HIV...



and Asthma...

[rg6royal]

Bring It On!

[Y25]

if we don't beat Derby we probably deserve to go down

i'm worried about this game - my mate is a hammer and he said Derby were playing some good carefree football the other week when they played them

winning there is not an impossibility but it's going to be very tough

[Platypuss]

I've never known a poster change views on the weekly basis more than Jay

As I've said before, Jay IS Indecisive Dave from the Fast Show.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQoPcUXyf3g

[Platypuss]

Also I can see Fulham beating Brum and Bolton possibly edging Sunderland who have nothing to play for. Those results would sort out the relegation spots before the trip to Derby.

We'd still need a point at Derby otherwise a win for Fulham at Pompey would see us down on GD.