Catch Brum by Christmas

[winchester_royal]

Some people forget that in this league, anyone can win on their day, the soton game proved that.

6 points is not an unassailable lead by any stretch of the imagination, nor is 13 for that matter.

[Wax Jacket]

I think it's doable

[Franchise FC]

Some people forget that in this league, anyone can win on their day, the soton game proved that.

6 points is not an unassailable lead by any stretch of the imagination, nor is 13 for that matter.

By that argument, the 12 that Wolves are in front should also be catchable.

[AlexY25]

Its easy saying brum and wolves could slip up. But we'll probably slip up as well.

I'd be suprised if Reading, Wolves and Brum are seperated by much at the end of the year though.

[papereyes]

Obviously plenty of games to be won and lost between now and May, but right now it looks like the current top three will go up, be it automatically or via the playoffs. That could all change in January, but nobody else in the division looks capable of competing.

If only it were that simple. History proves that the team which comes third in a 3-horse race hardly ever goes up via the play-offs.

Although not specifically "third in a three horse race" and the figures I have are correct to April 2006 so there's a few seasons missing, the top-placed club in the second tier playoffs obtained promotion about 24 % of the time. The slight statistical favourite is actually third, with 29 %. I always think its down to mentality - a team near the bottom of the playoffs has often come in with a late push (see Crystal Palace a few seasons back as an example) and is in form whereas a team that finishes at the top could often be cursing not getting promotion.

In the third tier, the top placed playoff team went up in approaching 75 % of seasons in which we've had playoffs and in the second, it has been in 30 % of cases.


I think the difference between the third tier and the other two (which seem quite even) would possibly have to be something to do with there being an extra automatic spot in that division.

[rabidbee]

Stating the obvious I know, but I hate knowing that we're reliant on them to slip up more than once and us to keep winning.

There are six points from Brum and three from Wolves still available.

[andrew1957]

At the end of August Reading were 3 points behind Brum
At the end of September we were still 3 points behind
At the end of October we were 6 points behind and we are still 6 points behind.

This is hardly insurmountable - it just takes 2 wins for us and 2 losses for them.

What we need is some consistency where we win 6 games or so in a row.

[SCIAG]

At the end of August Reading were 3 points behind Brum
At the end of September we were still 3 points behind
At the end of October we were 6 points behind and we are still 6 points behind.

This is hardly insurmountable - it just takes 2 wins for us and 2 losses for them.

And seeing as we still have to play them twice...

[mg1976royal]

Yes if Kevin Phillips gets injured on Saturday.

11 games 7 as sub but scored 9 goals.

[Percy's Rocket]

[quote="mg1976royal"]Yes if Kevin Phillips gets injured"

Back to part of my original point..Phillips will not be able to keep that up all season in this league..
That will help us but at the end of the day we have to achive something like the consistency of
2005..not as completely superb as that but picking up points all the way along the line..wins..not draws..
and not having a lousy run...one of them (and I predict Brum) will have a bad trot and we pounce.

[S09Royal]

Yes if Kevin Phillips gets injured"

Back to part of my original point..Phillips will not be able to keep that up all season in this league..
That will help us but at the end of the day we have to achive something like the consistency of
2005..not as completely superb as that but picking up points all the way along the line..wins..not draws..
and not having a lousy run...one of them (and I predict Brum) will have a bad trot and we pounce.

and RAWR.
it'll scare them off. no?

[floyd__streete]

At the end of August Reading were 3 points behind Brum
At the end of September we were still 3 points behind
At the end of October we were 6 points behind and we are still 6 points behind.

This is hardly insurmountable - it just takes 2 wins for us and 2 losses for them.

What we need is some consistency where we win 6 games or so in a row.

No, but as you have shown that gap is actually growing as time goes on which is hardly ideal, I am sure you would agree with that. And as you personally got it so spectacularly wrong last time - crowing just after our last win in the Premier League at all those who dared to doubt - forgive me if I don't hold my breath waiting for this 6 game in a row winning streak; some of you are still confusing RFC 08/09 with RFC 05/06. And I notice how catching Wolves is already being conveniently overlooked; a pre-requisite I would have thought if we are to claim the divisional title as so many of you once expected us to

[rabidbee]

Some of you really don't enjoy being football fans, do you?

[Jackson Corner]

I can remember Newcastle being 12 points clear in Febuary one year. And they lost the title. So 12 points behind in November is nothing to worry about.

[Deathy]

If we keep the squad together, I think we could catch both Birmingham and Wolves in the long term.

Don't know why you're all being so pessimistic - neither of those teams is any better than us and we've already rinsed Wolves away.

6 points, 10 points, 12 points, whatever - it's not decisive so early in the season.

True...now we edge into December. The month that tells a thousand tales.

[papereyes]

Some of you really don't enjoy being football fans, do you?

I don't enjoy other football fans, if that's what you mean.

[Magicman]

I thought it was a good shout that we can catch Brum by xmas, does not sound too unrealistic and its always good to have goals!

The next few games do look a bit easier but you never can tell, but its about time we got on some kind of decent run of wins.

[Sarah Star]

Stating the obvious I know, but I hate knowing that we're reliant on them to slip up more than once and us to keep winning.

There are six points from Brum and three from Wolves still available.

Still reliant on them slipping up and us winning, but it's better knowing some of their slipping up is down to us winning against them.

[Harry Carry]

is the gap between Wolves and Reading.

Do you think they'll be able to claw that back given that Doyle and Hunt will be on their way to Villa and Everton respectively in January.

[Sun Tzu]

Doubt it, the season is over for us.

Any thoughts on Scholari's successor given his announcement yesterday that he's heading back off to Brazil in a couple of weeks ?