On the positive side

[Stranded]

This weekend could see quite a key shift in our favour - if we can beat Forest (a scrappy 1-0 will do) then we will put massive pressure on Brum.

A win will put us 1 pt ahead of them having played a game less with Brum then going to Sheff U on the Sunday, a game that they will then most likely see as a must win otherwise they'll remain behind us having played 2 more games.

[Gordons Cumming]

This weekend could see quite a key shift in our favour - if we can beat Forest (a scrappy 1-0 will do) then we will put massive pressure on Brum.

A win will put us 1 pt ahead of them having played a game less with Brum then going to Sheff U on the Sunday, a game that they will then most likely see as a must win otherwise they'll remain behind us having played 2 more games.

Not forgetting putting pressure on Wolves. They have the serious jitters too.

[Snowball]

CURIOUS FACT FOLLOWS

Our next 5 opponents are the same as 5 of Wolverhampton's next 6 opponents

H Nottm Forest
A Sheffield Wed
A Plymouth
H Charlton
H Ipswich Town

WOLVES

H Plymouth
A Crystal Palace
A Sheffield Wed
H Ipswich Town
H Charlton
A Nottm Forest



3 games are identical

A Sheffield Wed
H Ipswich Town
H Charlton

[Terminal Boardom]

I was hoping that Brum would have won last night, if, for no other reason than to kick a few ar5es and remove some of the complacency.

[Ian Royal]

I don't call the equivalent of 1 loss instead of a win (the 3 points) in 6 games a big difference in form. I'd also say Wolves scoring goals is potentially siginificant. As long as they keep scoring all they have the potential to win games. It's kind of hard for us to win if we aren't scoring.

I also haven't arbitrarily picked 6 games to prove my point. If you want me to actually look at a specific number of games I will. I will look at 5 and 10 as I will for any form, because I don't just pick the number that best proves my point and vary it accordingly.

5 Games:
Reading: W1,D2,L2
Wolves: W1,D2,L2
B'ham: W1,D3,L1

10 Games: (inc Cup)
Reading: W3,D4,L3
Wolves: W2,D3,L5
B'ham: W2,D5,L3

10 Games: (ex Cup)
Reading: W4,D4,L2
Wolves: W1,D5,L4
B'ham: W3,D5,L2

So our 5 game form is identical to Wolves and marginally worse than B'ham. 10 Games is marginally better than B'ham and a fair bit better than Wolves, although that does include some of our good run of 5 wins and I mentioned our poor form hasn't been in place as long as the others'.

Ignoring cup obviously makes a bigger difference between us and Wolves, but I see no reason to ignore cup games for this. It also makes B'ham's form better than ours.

So I really don't see where the problem is. Our recent form has been identical to Wolves.

[Man Friday]

The problem is not ahead of us - it's behind us. At this rate, we'll all be overtaken bt Bristol City and Cardiff, at least.

[Ian Royal]

The problem is not ahead of us - it's behind us. At this rate, we'll all be overtaken bt Bristol City and Cardiff, at least.

Cardiff are a big danger, but they have a fixture pile up. I find it difficult to see the others passing us though. They'd need to maintain really good form and we'd have to stay pretty toss. Still all is possible.

I'd rather worry about getting past Wolves and or B'ham though. If we start notching up the points to do that we negate a lot of the worry of anything behind us.

[Snowball]

I don't call the equivalent of 1 loss instead of a win (the 3 points) in 6 games a big difference in form. I'd also say Wolves scoring goals is potentially siginificant. As long as they keep scoring all they have the potential to win games. It's kind of hard for us to win if we aren't scoring.

We have a positive GD, they have a negative. We can score loadsa goals too, if we play ten up front. Trouble is we also would let in loads. As Wolves have done.

[quote]I also haven't arbitrarily picked 6 games to prove my point. If you want me to actually look at a specific number of games I will. I will look at 5 and 10 as I will for any form, because I don't just pick the number that best proves my point and vary it accordingly.[/quote

Neither do I. I was laboriously copying results until I found a site that gave the last six/twelve/eighteen.

And if standard stats sites use 6-12-18, why is that not fair?



YOUR 5 games form may be number-accurate but it hardly takes into consideration the quality of the opposition, does it?

The average league position of Reading's last 5 opponents was 6th, Woles 14th, Birmingham 14th

5 Games:
W1,D2,L2 5 Points Reading: VERSUS Wolves (top) Bristol 4th, Preston 5th, Swansea 9th, QPR 11th (avg 6th)
W1,D2,L2 5 Points Wolves: VERSUS Cardiff 6th, Burnley 8th, Coventry 14th, Watford 18th, Norwich 22nd. (avg 14th)
W1,D3,L1 6 Points B'ham VERSUS Burnley 8th, Wednesday 12th, Palace 13th (10 men), Coventry 14th, Forest (21st), (avg 14th)


10 Games: (ex Cup)
Reading: W4,D4,L2 16 Points
Wolves: W1,D5,L4 08 Points
B'ham: W3,D5,L2 14 points

[Ian Royal]

I don't call the equivalent of 1 loss instead of a win (the 3 points) in 6 games a big difference in form. I'd also say Wolves scoring goals is potentially siginificant. As long as they keep scoring all they have the potential to win games. It's kind of hard for us to win if we aren't scoring.

We have a positive GD, they have a negative. We can score loadsa goals too, if we play ten up front. Trouble is we also would let in loads. As Wolves have done.

I also haven't arbitrarily picked 6 games to prove my point. If you want me to actually look at a specific number of games I will. I will look at 5 and 10 as I will for any form, because I don't just pick the number that best proves my point and vary it accordingly.[/quote

Neither do I. I was laboriously copying results until I found a site that gave the last six/twelve/eighteen.

And if standard stats sites use 6-12-18, why is that not fair?

You've used loads of different numbers of games depending on what you're trying to show. I couldn't give a monkey's about quality of opposition comparisons.

Of course we CAN score lots of goals. But we aren't at the moment. Our goals have dried up. We can't win without scoring. Wolves are still scoring, yes they are leaking goals at the back but GD isn't massively important tbh. The points are the thing.

You want to get into some sort of pissing contest about my perfectly reasonable statement, then you can try, but I'm not going to reciprocate.

[Snowball]

So our 5 game form is identical to Wolves and marginally worse than B'ham. 10 Games is marginally better than B'ham and a fair bit better than Wolves, although that does include some of our good run of 5 wins and I mentioned our poor form hasn't been in place as long as the others'. Ignoring cup obviously makes a bigger difference between us and Wolves, but I see no reason to ignore cup games for this. It also makes B'ham's form better than ours. So I really don't see where the problem is. Our recent form has been identical to Wolves.

That is LAUGHABLE, and here is absolute proof

11 games ago (before we played our last ten games) this was the table.

1 22 9 1 1 25 9 7 1 3 23 18 +21 50 Wolves
2 22 9 0 2 17 8 5 5 1 15 11 +13 47 Birmingham
3 22 9 1 1 29 7 4 3 4 17 14 +25 43 Reading

We were 7 pts behind Wolves with no games in hand, 4 points behind Birmingham, no games in hand.

TODAY

1 34 11 4 2 37 19 8 3 6 29 26 +21 64 Wolves
2 34 11 3 3 23 13 6 7 4 17 16 +11 61 Birmingham
3 32 12 3 2 37 10 5 5 5 21 18 +30 59 Reading

Now we are FIVE points behind Wolves, and TWO behind Birmingham HAVING PLAYED TWO GAMES LESS THAN THEM!

12 games 14 points 18-18 GD = +0 1.16 points per game Wolves
12 games 14 points 08-10 GD = -2 1.16 points per game Birmingham
10 games 16 points 12-07 GD = +5 1.60 points per game Reading


We have gained 2 points and a GD of +5 on Wolves
We have gained 2 points and a GD of +7 on Birmingham

[Snowball]

You've used loads of different numbers of games depending on what you're trying to show. I couldn't give a monkey's about quality of opposition comparisons.

Fine, continue being stupid. That's your prerogative.

If we started in the Premier with home and away games against Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Villa and lost our first ten, that would tell us very very little because we don't expect to gather points from the top teams. Coppell has explicitly said that.

We can't win without scoring. Wolves are still scoring, yes they are leaking goals at the back but GD isn't massively important tbh. The points are the thing.

YES the points are the thing, and Wolves are LOSING GAMES. For example they've scored 6 goals in their last 4 and D2 L2. Merely "scoring goals" is hardly the point. SCORING MORE THAN THE OPPOSITION is the crucial point

Manchester United this season. Lotsa goals or just enough?

0-0 Aston Villa
0-0 Tottenham
1-0 Stoke City
1-0 Middlesbrough
1-0 Wigan
1-0 Bolton
1-0 Everton
1-0 West Ham
1-0 Portsmouth
1-0 Man City
1-0 Sunderland

1-1 Newcastle
1-1 Chelsea
1-1 Everton

1-2 Liverpool
1-2 Arsenal

2-0 Bolton
2-0 Blackburn
2-0 West Ham
2-1 Blackburn

3-0 Chelsea
3-0 Fulham
3-1 Middlesbrough

4-0 West Brom
4-3 Hull City
5-0 Stoke City
5-0 West Brom
5-3 Blackburn

[Ian Royal]

You've used loads of different numbers of games depending on what you're trying to show. I couldn't give a monkey's about quality of opposition comparisons.

Fine, continue being stupid. That's your prerogative.

If we started in the Premier with home and away games against Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Villa and lost our first ten, that would tell us very very little because we don't expect to gather points from the top teams. Coppell has explicitly said that.

We can't win without scoring. Wolves are still scoring, yes they are leaking goals at the back but GD isn't massively important tbh. The points are the thing.

YES the points are the thing, and Wolves are LOSING GAMES. For example they've scored 6 goals in their last 4 and D2 L2. Merely "scoring goals" is hardly the point. SCORING MORE THAN THE OPPOSITION is the crucial point

Fixture question is idiocy because it can't happen. There's also a massive difference between the difference in quality between us and United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Villa & Arsenal than there is between anyone on this division.

Please continue to argue that our recent form is much better than Wolves. Even using your 6 games it's a marginal difference. And I remind you i said ours wasn't much better. 5 game form shows it is the same as Wolves, slightly worse than B'ham.

Basically, what I'm trying to say, is "do one, you senile moron".

[koran]

This thread is entitled 'On the positive side' so ...

We are the only team in the league who have automatic promotion in our own hands! All the others, including Cardiff, have to rely on other results! All we have to do is win our next 14 games and we are there!

That's all!

[Avon Royal]

This thread is entitled 'On the positive side' so ...

We are the only team in the league who have automatic promotion in our own hands! All the others, including Cardiff, have to rely on other results! All we have to do is win our next 14 games and we are there!

That's all!

Strange but true!

[Avon Royal]

This thread is entitled 'On the positive side' so ...

We are the only team in the league who have automatic promotion in our own hands! All the others, including Cardiff, have to rely on other results! All we have to do is win our next 14 games and we are there!

That's all!

Strange but true!

At least it was...........

[Snowball]

Ian by using such a short run of games (5) one win v Notts Forest
(dropping off the Swansea defeat) has far too much of an impact.


One game (say 2-0) changes our form from

P5 W1 D2 L2 01-04 5 points = 1.0 points per game
to
P5 W2 D2 L1 03-02 8 points = 1.6 points per game

Your "form-guide" would transform the APPARENT fortunes of Reading even if we scraped a 1-0 win.

That's why even 6 is a bit low and I like to show 6 AND 12

[Snowball]

You want to get into some sort of pissing contest about my perfectly reasonable statement, then you can try, but I'm not going to reciprocate.

Basically, what I'm trying to say, is "do one, you senile moron".

Har, har, har

[Snowball]

Please continue to argue that our recent form is much better than Wolves. Even using your 6 games it's a marginal difference.

Official Stats

13 6 2 2 2 4 4 5 4 +1 8 1.33 Reading
17 6 1 2 3 0 2 9 10 -1 5 0.83 Wolverhampton Wndrs

Half a point a game is a MONSTER difference = 23 points in a season

(I did the sum for you, because I realise you're a bit slow)

Top club last season WBA = 81 points

23 points less than that was QPR in 14th


Yeah you're right, half a point a game is a trivial difference.


Season before 23 points below top was 12th

[T.R.O.L.I.]

And in 2006 23 points behind 1st would have put you in 3rd position.

[Snowball]

And in 2006 23 points behind 1st would have put you in 3rd position.

very good