The new season

[Snowball]

Has anyone considered Bristol City to challenge? They were tenth, have a solid manager, so shouldn't they be expecting to get a little closer?

Common-sense says we should be knocking on the door (presuming we don't suddenly lose a couple of stars in the transfer market)

Our form in 2010, even with the fall-away near the death, was fifth-best in the league and three of those went up. The return of Noel Hunt (fingers crossed) should be a boost and surely the spirit in the side will be very good?

RELATIVELY we are financially healthy. I'd love to see a table showing how seriously in debt (or not) the various clubs are (and then look at season's close to see how much finances had an effect)...

BURNLEY, BTW, reckon they are financially solid and will be looking for an immediate bounce back.

It looks extremely tight (again) but I'll be disappointed if we don't at least make the play-offs.

[The Rouge]

The Rouge's early thoughts:

I think Middlesbrough will be right up there.
I think Reading will be top 6.
I think Millwall have a decent team and will do pretty well.
I think Palace are fcuked.

[Dirk Gently]

RELATIVELY we are financially healthy. I'd love to see a table showing how seriously in debt (or not) the various clubs are (and then look at season's close to see how much finances had an effect)...

It's not so much debt that's the deciding factor - it's what teams spend. Debt is only the end-result of that when there is insufficient income to sustain it.

But there is a more or less direct correlation between salary budget and league position. I hate it because it goes against everything that I believe should be about football, but across the top 4 leagues the correlation between salary and league position is 95%.

For instance, last season we had the 10th highest salary bill in the CCC - where did we finish? Newcastle had the top salary bill, then West Brom. Forest, Cardiff & Leicester were next highest.

Occasionally you get a team like Blackpool (or us in 2006) who massively over-perform, but those are the exceptions rather than the norms.

I hate the above fact, but it's true in today's game.

[Ian Royal]

RELATIVELY we are financially healthy. I'd love to see a table showing how seriously in debt (or not) the various clubs are (and then look at season's close to see how much finances had an effect)...

It's not so much debt that's the deciding factor - it's what teams spend. Debt is only the end-result of that when there is insufficient income to sustain it.

But there is a more or less direct correlation between salary budget and league position. I hate it because it goes against everything that I believe should be about football, but across the top 4 leagues the correlation between salary and league position is 95%.

For instance, last season we had the 10th highest salary bill in the CCC - where did we finish? Newcastle had the top salary bill, then West Brom. Forest, Cardiff & Leicester were next highest.

Occasionally you get a team like Blackpool (or us in 2006) who massively over-perform, but those are the exceptions rather than the norms.

I hate the above fact, but it's true in today's game.

Not really a shock though is it Dirk? It's always going to be the teams that can afford the best players who do well. The wage budgets should be far less obscene and the differences between top and bottom smaller, but it's not likely to significantly change correlation between wages and position even if the finances are sorted out properly.

[Dirk Gently]

Not a great shock, except for just how neatly it does correlate across the whole season and across all the leagues.

[CMRoyal]

Not a great shock, except for just how neatly it does correlate across the whole season and across all the leagues.

All of which I guess means that we have a 95% probability of finishing roughly where we did last season?

[Dirk Gently]

Not a great shock, except for just how neatly it does correlate across the whole season and across all the leagues.

All of which I guess means that we have a 95% probability of finishing roughly where we did last season?

Depends how much we spend. If our wage bill is amongst the top two in the Championship, we have a 95% chance of being automatically promoted. If we are the 10th highest payers we have a 95% chance of finishing 10th......

What makes in interesting is that there's always variability - if we're paying mid-table we don't have to overperfrom by as much as Blackpool did last year to get promoted. All is takes is an exceptional manager and/or a set of players playing better than they're paid for and who knows what can happen .....?

[Still Hate Futcher!]

If we can hang on to the current squad, perhaps adding a decent CB (like Zurab) I quite fancy us to win the league this season. Don't think any side stands out as better than us though expect Boro, Forest and Leicester to challenge.

[Barry the bird boggler]

Don't think any side stands out as better than us though expect Boro, Forest and Leicester to challenge.

Perhaps this is not a bad shout, although I would like to see our striking options sorted out as other than Noel Hunt we seem to be a little short and unproven in that area and are waiting for someone to stand up and be counted.

[Dirk Gently]

See what I said above about Leicester - I don't expect them to compete this season at all. Their level of unsustainable spending is unlikely to continue, they will lose some players to Hull and there'll be lots of in-fighting.

No-one has mentioned Hull yet - I can see them competing as they'll do an all-or-nothing throwing 4 years' worth of parachute payments at the first year in an effort to go back up. If they fail they'll be in financial oblivion, so they'll go for broke.

[Urinal Mint]

If we can hang on to the current squad, perhaps adding a decent CB (like Zurab) I quite fancy us to win the league this season. Don't think any side stands out as better than us though expect Boro, Forest and Leicester to challenge.

as bold statements go, that's right up there. who are going to score all these goals then? long? hunt? church? mooney? reality bites.

[Sarah Star]

If we can hang on to the current squad, perhaps adding a decent CB (like Zurab) I quite fancy us to win the league this season. Don't think any side stands out as better than us though expect Boro, Forest and Leicester to challenge.

as bold statements go, that's right up there. who are going to score all these goals then? long? hunt? church? mooney? reality bites.

You forgot Sigurdsson and Kebe. I think that lot could do it, I really do and I wouldn't put it past McAnuff to score more than he did last year either.

[Urinal Mint]

we don't have a 20 goal a season striker. agree with sigurdsson putting a few away from midfield, but there's isn't enough goals in us imho. we're good, but not good enough. time will tell.

[loyalroyal4life]

we need to move the likes of cisse, cummings (i know need a miracle) and rasiak out and i think we should look to fund a proven prolific striker from the onset although I have high hopes for noel this term

[Urinal Mint]

we need to move the likes of cisse, cummings (i know need a miracle) and rasiak out and i think we should look to fund a proven prolific striker from the onset although I have high hopes for noel this term

yeah agree with that. hunt for me is the best of our strikers, but its his long term fitness which is a concern. some have said already that retirement was mentioned to him, but he has delayed that in the hope of returning to fitness, and hopefully wrapping him in cotton wool as we did kitson and murty with their respective injury problems. we really do need a leading front man for the likes of hunt and church to play off of.

[Still Hate Futcher!]

If we can hang on to the current squad, perhaps adding a decent CB (like Zurab) I quite fancy us to win the league this season. Don't think any side stands out as better than us though expect Boro, Forest and Leicester to challenge.

as bold statements go, that's right up there. who are going to score all these goals then? long? hunt? church? mooney? reality bites.

Never thought I'd have said this 6 months ago but I'm happy with the strikers we have. Long showed signs towards the end of the season that he could finally be starting to fulfil his potential, Church is improving with every game and Hunt is a very good Championship striker. Even if none of them turns out to be the 20 goals a season man we are looking for we could still score enough if the midfield carry on as they left off. How many Championship sides have a midfielder as prolific as Gylfi?

I'm not saying we will win the League, just that I think we've a good chance. I don't understand the negativity about a lack of goals in the squad - did you not see the 2nd half of last season?

[Urinal Mint]

I did see the second half, yes, but I also saw the first half. long will only ever be an average striker. he has some good games, but more often than not, he's pretty poor. this is his make or break season! church yes, very impressed with his movement, and this could be the season to really make his mark. hunt i rate as well, but there are genuine concerns retirement is only around the corner, and that poses are serious concern. appreciate the goals from the young lad sigurdsson, but we really could do with another striker in, perhaps on loan. otherwise i do look at the team, with the exception of wanting another centre back, as being able to push for top six, but i feel we'll fall short.

[Millsy]

I think it's shaping up to be quite obvious where we'll finish.

I reckon we'll definitely be a top 6 side, or failing that we'll be close to the playoffs or midtable if not safe of the relegation zone or just above it or possibly in it.

[Sarah Star]

Funny how your expectations fall the further your sentence goes on, 2WW1WC. Hope the season doesn't go like that.

[Mike Hunt]

I think that it is still too early to speculate.

I also think that signing Boyd is a massive coup for Middlesbrough, but still am yet to be convinced that they will be able to do any better than last year.