Horrible feeling about this season...

[melonhead]

Also who is to say these are the positions the teams will be in when we get around to playing them.

Yeah RIGHT.

We are playing the team that is 5 points clear at the top, that has been top or second for the whole season. They will "obviously" crash and burn and be a poor side when we play them.

West Ham may be stuttering, but they are still losing very, very few games, and like Reading, are heavy odds-on to finish in the top three.

Brighton are improving and have been averaging over 2 points per game over the last 12 games.

etc

Leeds MIGHT fall away, but then Forest (on a decent run) might be higher.

The simple fact is we are on our toughest run of the season and are almost certainly going to drop a lot of points in these 8 games

we'll drop some, thats for sure

though i seem to remember alot of stats saying we played better against the better sides

[Snowball]

We had a great second half at Barnsley, but by all accounts we were poor first half?
We weren't exactly magnificent at Peterboro and not-so-good at Doncaster...
that's 5 out of the last 6 halfs where we didn't look like world-beaters.

..................and all the other teams in the league have great halves all the time.

Did you see West Ham on the box the other day?

My point was (just asking what people think) whether we have been slipping for a few games, the slipping covered up by the second half at Barnsley.


We had a similar patch in late December/January. I can only remember the result v Brighton,
but I think the 3-0 flattered us, then we weren't exactly great v Ipswich, dire at Cardiff, even
worse versus Stevenage. We were "workmanlike at Watford and nicked the win, but then didn't
look like scoring versus Hull (even if we shouldn't have lost) and beating Bristol 1-0 wasn't exactly stellar...

H 1-0 Ipswich
A 1-3 Cardiff
H 0-1 Stevenage
A 2-1 Watford
H 0-1 Hull
H 1-0 Bristol

[leon]

We had a great second half at Barnsley, but by all accounts we were poor first half?
We weren't exactly magnificent at Peterboro and not-so-good at Doncaster...
that's 5 out of the last 6 halfs where we didn't look like world-beaters.

..................and all the other teams in the league have great halves all the time.

Did you see West Ham on the box the other day?

My point was (just asking what people think) whether we have been slipping for a few games, the slipping covered up by the second half at Barnsley.


We had a similar patch in late December/January. I can only remember the result v Brighton,
but I think the 3-0 flattered us, then we weren't exactly great v Ipswich, dire at Cardiff, even
worse versus Stevenage. We were "workmanlike at Watford and nicked the win, but then didn't
look like scoring versus Hull (even if we shouldn't have lost) and beating Bristol 1-0 wasn't exactly stellar...

H 1-0 Ipswich
A 1-3 Cardiff
H 0-1 Stevenage
A 2-1 Watford
H 0-1 Hull
H 1-0 Bristol

I think it will have the opposite affect - the team will be raring to get out there and start another run.

[themadstad]

A blip for us which Southampton had and are now back on track. West Ham are in but will pick u up again.

We had a great second half at Barnsley, but by all accounts we were poor first half?
We weren't exactly magnificent at Peterboro and not-so-good at Doncaster...
that's 5 out of the last 6 halfs where we didn't look like world-beaters.

..................and all the other teams in the league have great halves all the time.

Did you see West Ham on the box the other day?

My point was (just asking what people think) whether we have been slipping for a few games, the slipping covered up by the second half at Barnsley.


We had a similar patch in late December/January. I can only remember the result v Brighton,
but I think the 3-0 flattered us, then we weren't exactly great v Ipswich, dire at Cardiff, even
worse versus Stevenage. We were "workmanlike at Watford and nicked the win, but then didn't
look like scoring versus Hull (even if we shouldn't have lost) and beating Bristol 1-0 wasn't exactly stellar...

H 1-0 Ipswich
A 1-3 Cardiff
H 0-1 Stevenage
A 2-1 Watford
H 0-1 Hull
H 1-0 Bristol

[Snowball]

though i seem to remember a lot of stats saying we played better against the better sides

Unfortunately, that's another myth

Our best ppg is against lower sides at home, then lower sides home/away, then lower sides away

then yop sides at home.

Unfortunately, our worst record is against top half sides AWAY (and they are Blackpool-Hull-Cardiff)

We have to play EVEN BETTER sides away now, Southampton, West Ham, Brighton and Birmingham

8 Reading 11-07-2 2 6 1 16-10 +06 23 2.09 ppg versus Bottom Half Home
4 Reading 23-14-4 5 9 3 35-23 +12 46 2.00 ppg versus Bottom Half Away
3 Reading 12-07-2 3 3 2 19-13 +06 23 1.92 ppg versus Bottom Half Away

5 Reading 08-04-2 2 4 2 12-05 +07 14 1.75 ppg versus Top Half Home
3 Reading 15-07-3 5 8 5 18-10 +08 24 1.60 ppg versus Top Half Home & Away
2 Reading 07-03-1 3 4 3 06-05 +01 10 1.43 ppg versus Top Half Away

Based on form so far we should get 13 more points this season
but that is based on saying Saints-Brum-Brighton-WHU are
the equivalent of Cardiff-Hull. Arguably those 4 are better sides
and thus we could be looking at 10-11-12 points, and 3rd
unless we can upset the odds and win at West Ham

5.25 + 2.09 + 5.72 = 13. In other words, we have to IMPROVE on our season-long form
and do better than expected in those four tough away games, while still managing
2 ppg or better at home

[leon]

If worst comes to worst we should get another day out at WembLOLy with a load of pLOLastIcs waving their rumblestix. Belmonts.

Winning a playoff final would be better than finishing second for me gr8 m8s.

there are 4 scenarios - failing to make play offs (unlikely), not getting to the play off final (highly likely), losing the Play off final (very highly likely) , automatic (not sure)

[Snowball]

I think it will have the opposite affect - the team will be raring to get out there and start another run.

Hope you are right.

[leon]

I think it will have the opposite affect - the team will be raring to get out there and start another run.

Hope you are right.

so do I

[melonhead]

though i seem to remember a lot of stats saying we played better against the better sides

Unfortunately, that's another myth

Our best ppg is against lower sides at home, then lower sides home/away, then lower sides away

then yop sides at home.

Unfortunately, our worst record is against top half sides AWAY (and they are Blackpool-Hull-Cardiff)

We have to play EVEN BETTER sides away now, Southampton, West Ham, Brighton and Birmingham

8 Reading 11-07-2 2 6 1 16-10 +06 23 2.09 ppg versus Bottom Half Home
4 Reading 23-14-4 5 9 3 35-23 +12 46 2.00 ppg versus Bottom Half Away
3 Reading 12-07-2 3 3 2 19-13 +06 23 1.92 ppg versus Bottom Half Away

5 Reading 08-04-2 2 4 2 12-05 +07 14 1.75 ppg versus Top Half Home
3 Reading 15-07-3 5 8 5 18-10 +08 24 1.60 ppg versus Top Half Home & Away
2 Reading 07-03-1 3 4 3 06-05 +01 10 1.43 ppg versus Top Half Away

Based on form so far we should get 13 more points this season
but that is based on saying Saints-Brum-Brighton-WHU are
the equivalent of Cardiff-Hull. Arguably those 4 are better sides
and thus we could be looking at 10-11-12 points, and 3rd
unless we can upset the odds and win at West Ham

5.25 + 2.09 + 5.72 = 13. In other words, we have to IMPROVE on our season-long form
and do better than expected in those four tough away games, while still managing
2 ppg or better at home

doesnt that totally ignore west hams recent form?

i generally agree- id guess 82 points, and 3rd.

[Snowball]

though i seem to remember a lot of stats saying we played better against the better sides

Unfortunately, that's another myth

Our best ppg is against lower sides at home, then lower sides home/away, then lower sides away

then yop sides at home.

Unfortunately, our worst record is against top half sides AWAY (and they are Blackpool-Hull-Cardiff)

We have to play EVEN BETTER sides away now, Southampton, West Ham, Brighton and Birmingham

8 Reading 11-07-2 2 6 1 16-10 +06 23 2.09 ppg versus Bottom Half Home
4 Reading 23-14-4 5 9 3 35-23 +12 46 2.00 ppg versus Bottom Half Away
3 Reading 12-07-2 3 3 2 19-13 +06 23 1.92 ppg versus Bottom Half Away

5 Reading 08-04-2 2 4 2 12-05 +07 14 1.75 ppg versus Top Half Home
3 Reading 15-07-3 5 8 5 18-10 +08 24 1.60 ppg versus Top Half Home & Away
2 Reading 07-03-1 3 4 3 06-05 +01 10 1.43 ppg versus Top Half Away

Based on form so far we should get 13 more points this season
but that is based on saying Saints-Brum-Brighton-WHU are
the equivalent of Cardiff-Hull. Arguably those 4 are better sides
and thus we could be looking at 10-11-12 points, and 3rd
unless we can upset the odds and win at West Ham

5.25 + 2.09 + 5.72 = 13. In other words, we have to IMPROVE on our season-long form
and do better than expected in those four tough away games, while still managing
2 ppg or better at home

doesnt that totally ignore west hams recent form?

i generally agree- id guess 82 points, and 3rd.

As in Moneyball, stats only work over the long haul, and are almost meaningless in POs.

In a way we have an 8-game finish, almost like the POs and single results can blow away the stats.

Example, the most likely result "stat-wise" at West Ham is they fail again and we get a draw, and
right now, I'd bite their hand off for the point. 7 & 8 games left, still 2 points ahead...

But a win there for either side is MASSIVE now. If we match WHU's result this weekend then a defeat
at Upton Park would mean we were 1 point behind, inferior GD and just 6 games left while they still
had a game in hand. If they won that, we'd have to make up 5 points in 6 games. Won't happen.

We win there, of course and we are 5 clear, fractionally better GD. They will have to win their
GiH and make up 2-3 points in 6 games.

I don't think "we" are going to do it... but maybe WHU will blow it and help us over the line.

Pray for a Reading win v Blackpool while WHU lose 2-0 at Burnley. The opposite doesn't bear thinking about.

[melonhead]

i think doesnt bear thinking about is overstating it

im thinking about it right now, and have had no ill effects

[SydenhamRoyal]

I have got a horrible feeling about this season BUT ..

we are a better team than last season
as Snowball keeps reminding us we are actually better than our league position, and not all of that came from Roberts
our defence is usually awesome, they are allowed one off day

so you never know ...

[Snowball]

I have got a horrible feeling about this season BUT ..

we are a better team than last season
as Snowball keeps reminding us we are actually better than our league position, and not all of that came from Roberts
our defence is usually awesome, they are allowed one off day

so you never know ...

Better than second?


Mind you Saints W5 L1 15-8 at the start of the season while we had Khumalo and W1 D1 L4 5-8

So they basically had an 11 point and +10 GD start on us (and are now only 5 points ahead)

But in Saints defence, they've played more of the tough games, so unless we win on their patch, they are champions.

[Royal With Cheese]

Winning a playoff final would be better than finishing second for me gr8 m8s.

If you could GUARANTEE it I would agree.

[SydenhamRoyal]

I have got a horrible feeling about this season BUT ..

we are a better team than last season
as Snowball keeps reminding us we are actually better than our league position, and not all of that came from Roberts
our defence is usually awesome, they are allowed one off day

so you never know ...

Better than second?


Mind you Saints W5 L1 15-8 at the start of the season while we had Khumalo and W1 D1 L4 5-8

So they basically had an 11 point and +10 GD start on us (and are now only 5 points ahead)

But in Saints defence, they've played more of the tough games, so unless we win on their patch, they are champions.

Yes, better than second/ third (West Hams game in hand). It's not just the first 6 games (tho I for one completely agree with you using that as the starting point) - let's not forget we then had a run of draws. We've got better and better. I dont think we'll be champions, but promotion is the prize, and I havent given up hope yet.

[Friday's Legacy]

Roberts relishes Reading's rise

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulfletcher ... tml#305070

[SydenhamRoyal]

For what its worth, the latest from the Fink Tank after last Saturday and the mid week game now puts us in the top 2 for the first time ... thats despite the loss at Peterborough ...

1st Southampton 89.1
2nd Reading 82.2
3rd West Ham 81.8
4th Birmingham 74.8
5th Middlesboro 73.6
6th Blackpool 72
and not making the play offs
7th Cardiff 71.1

and, yes, I remain aware that none of the teams above can possibly score their predicted points apart from Blackpool

[Snowball]

2nd 82.2 Reading
3rd 81.8 West Ham

Ignoring the fact we can't get decimals of points...


but we can't... so the above must surely mean

2/3 82 Reading
2/3 82 West Ham

be nice to know if the fink tank predicted a draw between us...

[SydenhamRoyal]

2nd 82.2 Reading
3rd 81.8 West Ham

Ignoring the fact we can't get decimals of points...


but we can't... so the above must surely mean

2/3 82 Reading
2/3 82 West Ham

be nice to know if the fink tank predicted a draw between us...

Your logic is impeccable, I'd reached a rather similar conclusion Anyway, as to the head to head prediction ... it doesn't predict a win or a draw, it instead predicts the chances of different outcomes, as follows: a 37.5% chance of a West ham home win, a 35.5% chance of a Reading away win, and a 27% chance of a draw. Single most likely score line is 1-1 (12.8%), followed by 1-0 (10.4%), followed by 0-1 (10.1%). In terms of its projections for points tally, included in the above totals will be West Ham gaining 1.39 pts, Reading gaining 1.34 pts.

For completeness ... a 51.6% chance of a home win against Blackpool, with an expected points tally of 1.78 vs West Ham's expected tally tomorrow being 1.27.

I 100% predict that none of these will come to pass quite as precisely as that

[Mr Angry]

Just had a look at the remaining fixtures; the most I can West Ham getting is 83 or 84 (they have 3 difficult home games left - us, Brum and BHA; the 4th, Hull, are no pushovers).

That would leave us needing another 12 points from our last 7 games to reach 85; we will need at least 1 away win out of West Ham, Saints, BHA or Brum.