*RELEGATION WATCH*

[Snowball]

Still 10 points behind us, but an away win at Norwich for Wigan has a somewhat ominous feeling about it.

Like us getting an away win at Ipswich?

Like us getting an away win at Wolves?

Let's get perspective. Over 11 games they have to get 3 wins and a draw MORE than we do, or 2 wins and 4 draws more than we do

So if we win 2 games and draw 2 games and lose SEVEN, they have to W5 D3 L3 (one of those v Rotherham)

Our home form is MEH but it's still W7 D3 L7 (1.4 ppt) so there's no real reason to believe we won't get at least 1 ppg.

We have averaged a point per game away over the whole season, but under SC we are far better than that, so it needs some almost catastrophic change to imagine we won't get another ten points (at worst)

[Sutekh]

Just for the record haven't Wigan seen a complete turn around in their away form and won something like 4 of their last 5 away games? It's their home form which is really atrocious...

[Snowball]

Just for the record haven't Wigan seen a complete turn around in their away form and won something like 4 of their last 5 away games? It's their home form which is really atrocious...

Last 8 away

P8 W4 D1 L3 8-8 but now 3 away wins on the bounce

2-0 Leeds
0-1 Bolton
1-3 Birmingham
0-0 Ipswich
0-3 Forest
1-0 Reading
3-1 Blackpool
1-0 Norwich

[Snowball]

We will go down and it can happen with this manager. He seems devoid of ideas and the teams confidence drains by the week. How low can we go? Who knows. We can't beat s+it at home and away you just know what's gonna happen. I'm not sure how much more of this the owners will take. There is no excuse to be in this position injuries or not.

Fill your boots!

To be relegated

Blackpool 1/1000
Millwall 1/6

Wigan 4/11

Rotherham 5/2


Fulham 12/1
Brighton 14/1


Reading 40/1
Birmingham 40/1
Huddersfield 40/1


Wigan are 5/2 to stay up

[Snowball]

I called that Wigan will stay up AGES ago.

You did. You're a very clever chappie.

[Ian Royal]

Our home form is MEH but it's still W7 D3 L7 (1.4 ppt) so there's no real reason to believe we won't get at least 1 ppg.

The problem is our Home form under Clarke has gone from Play Off quality under Adkins (1.7ppg) to relegation quality (1ppg)

We have averaged a point per game away over the whole season, but under SC we are far better than that,

Are we really far better than that?
Adkins - 0.7 ppg
Clarke - 1.3 ppg
total - 1 ppg

so it needs some almost catastrophic change to imagine we won't get another ten points (at worst)

Under Clarke we're averaging 1.1 ppg which over 11 games is 12 points, which would take us to 53 and we could reasonably expect safety. But there's very little cushion there for error and if you look at Clarke's first 7 games compared to his second 7 (split halfway for convenience the decline doesn't look great.

1st seven: 1.3 ppg
2nd seven: 1 ppg

what if the next seven are the same margin worse again? That'd leave us on 46 points with 4 games to go against Bournemouth, Brentford, Rotherham and Derby. I don't know about you, but that could be major squeeky bum time. Even carry on as we are and we're talking 48 with four extremely difficult games we could conceivably get nothing from.

We absolutely shouldn't go down. But we are in a very dangerous position. We're losing form and Wigan (our relegation nemesis last 5 =1.8 ppg) are gaining it at exactly the wrong time.


Shit, I've almost talked myself into lumping on and I really didn't think it was that bad.


Oh and it's also interesting to note that the majority of fans had it reasonably good under Adkins, whilst they've got it pretty shit under Clarke (home form).

[Snowball]

Ian, you did notice EXACTLY what I said?

Snowball wrote:
We have averaged a point per game away over the whole season, but under SC we are far better than that,


That is, AWAY, overall we have averaged 1 point per game , but under SC we have averaged 1.28
ppg an extra 6.5 points in a season. If you add in Cup games the difference is huge.

ADKINS
2-2 Wigan
0-4 Forest
1-0 Scunthorpe
1-0 Boro
0-1 Wednesday
0-0 Leeds
0-3 Bournemouth
1-3 Blackburn
1-2 Cardiff
2-1 Norwich
1-6 Birmingham

P11 W3 D2 L6 F9-A22 (1 point per game)

also lost 2-0 at Derby in Cup

P12 W3 D2 L7


Clarke

2-2 Brighton
1-2 Fulham
0-0 Millwall
2-1 Wolves
1-0 Ipswich
0-3 Huddersfield (six players rested)
1-1 Bolton

P7 W2 D3 L2 F7-A9 9 points = 1.28 ppg

Plus 3 cup wins 2-1, 2-1, 2-0

P10 W5 D2 L3 13-11

So looking at league only we are much better away under SC than under NA (as I said)

If you add in cup games difference is even greater

P12 W3 D2 L7 09-24 GD -15 Adkins
P10 W6 D2 L3 13-11 GD +02 Clarke

[Angry Shed Sex]

So, what you're actually saying is that if we play all our games away from home (just like we do in the FA Cup) then we'll be alright?

[Ian Royal]

Yes snowball. I did understand it. I even quoted it broken down to show it easier.

Are you seriously saying that 1.28 is 'far better' than 1.00 for the massive difference of 6 points over a whole season (of which only a quarter is available)?
Because I don't.

And can I remind you, that you don't get points for cup games.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

Yes you do, all games count with snowwers. Except ones that don't.

The fact of it is that at thisbpoint in time if the season ended we would not be relegated, however the season has not ended and we could well go down. SB will use ppg over certain periods to show why it won't happen. But none are correct, as the future has not yet happened.
We could easily lose every game, but most likely won't.
Same as when we won the league, according to Snowers reasoning in early January we would not have. But we did.

[Snowball]

So, what you're actually saying is that if we play all our games away from home (just like we do in the FA Cup) then we'll be alright?

No, I'm saying we should get 5/6/7 away points by the end of the season
based on all our away performances under Clarke, and they should be enough
to keep us up with any home points a bonus

[Snowball]

Yes snowball. I did understand it. I even quoted it broken down to show it easier.

Are you seriously saying that 1.28 is 'far better' than 1.00 for the massive difference of 6 points over a whole season (of which only a quarter is available)?
Because I don't.

And can I remind you, that you don't get points for cup games.

I KNOW we don't get points for cup games

but three wins out of three in the cup (all away)
are clear "further evidence" that we do well away
from home


In fact we've done well or played well away from home in
every game under Clarke exce[t the six-players-rested game
at Huddersfield, and even there all three goals were bad
individual errors, not "being outplayed"

A million miles away from the Birmingham debacle

Six/seven points a season is the difference between relegation and safe mid-table,
the difference between winning a league and coming second, between autos and
POs, between high mid-table and making the POs.

and lest you forget, under Saint Adkins we were spiralling out of control,
and finished with a six goal concession at Birmingham.

This guy is a better manager and we will improve

[Royality creeps In]

I am sure Ian Royal and Snowball are lovely people.

But you really need to get out more!

[Whatevs]

I am sure Ian Royal and Snowball are lovely people.

This seems unlikely

[Pepe the Horseman]

Me and snowball are facebook friends, so I can vouch for him x

[Whatevs]

thats good enough for me

[floyd__streete]

I think there is real chemistry between Snowball and IR. Snowball is Bogart, IR is Bergman.

[Snowball]

I think there is real chemistry between Snowball and IR. Snowball is Bogart, IR is Bergman.

Floyd is the piano

[Pseud O'Nym]

I think there is real chemistry between Snowball and IR. Snowball is Bogart, IR is Bergman.

Floyd is the piano

Pianist.

[Snowball]

Fulham 1-5 Bournemouth


Excellent result for Reading