Long - time for a change?

[brendywendy]

well, people who are unhappy when the quality of the squad drops after relegation, arent really worth pandering to.

[Hoop Blah]

really? in terms of cost of purchase the squad we have now is more expensive.

i dont think its fair to compare this team to the one it was after we trounced the league.
you need to look at that squad as they were when we brought them in at the time - ie a load of free transfers, failures, and nobodys.
comparted to that team-before they became amazing- i reckon the current one compares pretty fecking well.

I'm comparing them on how I see them play and how I realistically expect them to develop.

Comparing them to the squads and teams around us in the league, those that I'd like us to challenge and also to our previous squads that have competed adequately at this level in the past (and those that haven't) is the only way I'm looking to do it.

I don't care how much we paid for a player we have now, or in the past for that matter, as the price paid isn't just a reflection of their ability because it's affected by the current market, how much we want and need the player, the players circumstances and of course the circumstances of the selling club.

For example, was Little a lesser player than Antonio or Golbourn? He cost us less didn't he?

[brendywendy]

but thats my point!
im pretty sure when those players were brought in, they were viewed in much the same way as our squad is now.
its only after they achieve that you can fairly compare them

[Ian Royal]

Where did I say I was surprised?

In fact Shane Long is the living example of the squad weakening (through no fault of his own), which was my point. He was 4th choice the year we went up, as a result of a number of factors, the 3 ahead of him have long since gone so he has become the defacto number 1 front man, without necessarily earning the tag.

yeah, but my point was-of course the squad weakened- we dropped a league
dont quite get your point tbf

How many of those strikers are now playing in the Premier League? It's one. The fact is we've brought in two strikers of a roughly acceptable standard having lost four - five if you include Cox -(including one of the replacements). Long's all round game has improved but he still doesn't score enough goals and we've been waiting for him to come good for 5 and a half seasons now.

Stranded is right. He is the epitome of how we have "made do" and failed to adequately replace those players who have left, whether it be with the same standard or a good enough lesser one.

We have three senior strikers at the club, all of them support strikers. It isn't good enough. Long is the right player to be our number 9.

[Hoop Blah]

but thats my point!
im pretty sure when those players were brought in, they were viewed in much the same way as our squad is now.
its only after they achieve that you can fairly compare them

I can't speak for anyone else but I'm comparing the strength of our squad and the players ability from what I remember of them at the time.

Upfront I'd rather have the options of Forster, Henderson, Kitson, Lita or Doyle after watching him for 3 or 4 games than any of our current front 4 (yes that's only 3). I've seen enough of our forwards to know what I think of them and how that compares to what I thought of our previous forwards at the time.

Tyson wasn't quite good enough, and I wasn't a massive Cureton fan but they weren't first choice and both played their part. I'd take their better or worse days over the potential of Church as our only back up for Long and Hunt for getting us into a challenging position in the top 6/8 of this current league.

See what I'm getting at? I don't think the players we have are as good as the players we have had whilst in this league before. I think the squad is weaker.

It is a bit harsh to judge against performances of the league winning season because that was an expceptional season. The players in that side, ones that were basically top half Championship players moulded into an exceptionally balanced team with lots of momentum, are still good yardsticks for what it takes to compete at this level though.

[brendywendy]

Where did I say I was surprised?

In fact Shane Long is the living example of the squad weakening (through no fault of his own), which was my point. He was 4th choice the year we went up, as a result of a number of factors, the 3 ahead of him have long since gone so he has become the defacto number 1 front man, without necessarily earning the tag.

yeah, but my point was-of course the squad weakened- we dropped a league
dont quite get your point tbf

How many of those strikers are now playing in the Premier League? It's one. The fact is we've brought in two strikers of a roughly acceptable standard having lost four - five if you include Cox -(including one of the replacements). Long's all round game has improved but he still doesn't score enough goals and we've been waiting for him to come good for 5 and a half seasons now.

Stranded is right. He is the epitome of how we have "made do" and failed to adequately replace those players who have left, whether it be with the same standard or a good enough lesser one.

We have three senior strikers at the club, all of them support strikers. It isn't good enough. Long is the right player to be our number 9.

im definitely in the "quite like a new better striker in jan" club

[brendywendy]

but thats my point!
im pretty sure when those players were brought in, they were viewed in much the same way as our squad is now.
its only after they achieve that you can fairly compare them

I can't speak for anyone else but I'm comparing the strength of our squad and the players ability from what I remember of them at the time.

Upfront I'd rather have the options of Forster, Henderson, Kitson, Lita or Doyle after watching him for 3 or 4 games than any of our current front 4 (yes that's only 3). I've seen enough of our forwards to know what I think of them and how that compares to what I thought of our previous forwards at the time.

Tyson wasn't quite good enough, and I wasn't a massive Cureton fan but they weren't first choice and both played their part. I'd take their better or worse days over the potential of Church as our only back up for Long and Hunt for getting us into a challenging position in the top 6/8 of this current league.

See what I'm getting at? I don't think the players we have are as good as the players we have had whilst in this league before. I think the squad is weaker.

It is a bit harsh to judge against performances of the league winning season because that was an expceptional season. The players in that side, ones that were basically top half Championship players moulded into an exceptionally balanced team with lots of momentum, are still good yardsticks for what it takes to compete at this level though.

disagree still.

beginning of 05/06 squad was basically kitson- good striker, from lower leagues, but proven in championship
lita-decent striker- proven in lower leagues
doyle irish nobody
long, worse than nobody

cureton/forster/tyson/henderson werent there

the onkly reason you look at them now and say theyre better is because of what they went on to achieve- at the start of 05/06 i can still remember alot of grumbling about ambition/quality

[RoyalBlue]

but thats my point!
im pretty sure when those players were brought in, they were viewed in much the same way as our squad is now.
its only after they achieve that you can fairly compare them

I can't speak for anyone else but I'm comparing the strength of our squad and the players ability from what I remember of them at the time.

Upfront I'd rather have the options of Forster, Henderson, Kitson, Lita or Doyle after watching him for 3 or 4 games than any of our current front 4 (yes that's only 3). I've seen enough of our forwards to know what I think of them and how that compares to what I thought of our previous forwards at the time.

Tyson wasn't quite good enough, and I wasn't a massive Cureton fan .

You can't have been at Griffin Park then!

Agreed, Brendy. The 106 squad can't really be used as a yard-stick, plus that season we were very lucky injury-wise

I'm not sure Lita would agree!

[Hoop Blah]

Firstly, as I said earlier I'm comparing these current players to previous players and squads that have competed adequately at this level.

Secondly, and as I know this tangent came about from saying we are weaker than the the squad that went up (along with others at this level), I'm amazed you seem to be able to read my mind and tell me what I was thinking of players 5 years ago!

When we kicked off that 05/06 season I'd seen Kitson play at least 30 games and score something like 20 goals. I knew what he was capable of at this level. He was the, to quote Coppell, the fulcrum of our attack.

I'd seen Lita bang them in for City the previous season and was confident enough he'd be a threat at this level (as was Coppell and his team, enough to see fit to spend a massive amount on him as one of the last pieces of the jigsaw). He was bought to partner Kitson and their combination looked a mouth watering one at the time (it didn't quite work out as well as expected of course).

When we signed Doyle I wasn't holding my breath, but after 4 or 5 games I'd seen enough to know he was going to be an excellent player for us, given a bit of luck. I just checked and he'd scored 3 goals by the middle of September from just a few starts and minimal sub appearances. He looked fine as 3rd choice.

I've seen more of our current forwards than I had of those 3 (Kitson apart) 5 years ago, and it's enough to know they're just not as good regardless of which point in time you want to take that reputation from.

[brendywendy]

lol- i cant argue that kitson then wasnt better than long is now- as he was /is probably the best striker ive seen in my time here.
but after that i was quietly happy about lita- but he was nothing like an established championship/prem player like the liegertwood/howard/griffin/kish types weve got in now
doyle/long were massive gambles that not many on here thought would pay off before a ball was kicked

anyway- dont know why im arguing really.

[Hoop Blah]

Who's arguing? I'm just discussing!

Before we're go off on a tangent to other areas of the squad you say that Lita wasn't established Championship standard but neither are Church and Hunt really. Church has never scored many goals at any level and Hunt can't complete 90 minutes on a regular basis. He's played about 60 games at this level in 2 and a half seasons. It's enough for me to have formed an opinion on his relative merits but not enough for him to be an established performer. The options we have upfront now are weaker than 05/06 be that at the start of the season of 3 years later.

We are better off for centre backs though, I'd happily admit that. We got incredibly lucky in 05/06 going through the whole season with just Ingimarrson and Sonko playing week-in week-out (although if we'd had a credible back up I'm 100% sure both would've sat games out with knocks they had at various times). The only backup we had at the time was Brown and Gunnarsson who was also needed as backup to the midfielders.

Gunnarsson vs Leigertwood (loan only so far of course) as an established Championship performer. I'd take Gunnarsson over Leigertwood any time, even using my view of him before he'd kicked a ball for us.


Our squad now has more numbers (we've collected average midfielders for 4 or 5 years afterall) but less quality. In my opinion it's weaker overall.

[Wimb]

I've said it before but to me Long is this generations Martin Williams, he may be our top goalscorer but he isn't the answer long term based on the last 4/5 years. He DOES have a future at the club but he's not going to take us to the next level, at least not alone.

[Snowball]

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/en


I found a site that logs all minutes played and goals
so it's easy to calculate minutes per goal across a player's whole career

Long is now in front of Doyle and Lita, just tucked in behind Kitson
but I think their Kitson data is incomplete (2005 onwards).

Kitson 2006-2011 is on 295 minutes a goal.


These exclude internationals and friendlies. Find it hard to believe Grant Holt's figures.

140 Grant Holt NORWICH
160 Robert Earnshaw FOREST
173 Darren Bent
181 Wayne Rooney
210 Chopra CARDIFF
231 Kitson <<<<<<<<<<<<<<
233 Bothroyd CARDIFF
234 Long <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
240 Bellamy CARDIFF
255 Doyle <<<<<<<<<<<<<<
265 Kris Commons DERBY
269 Lita <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
280 Rob Hulse QPR
374 Whittingham Cardiff
445 Tommy Smith QPR

[Hoop Blah]

Snowball, what set of numbers from that site are you using? Have you checked any of the stats to see how accurate they are?

I'm not sure what numbers you post refers to. From what I can see Kitsons total is 239 over his whole career (or since 05/06 anyway) or 180 for just in the Championship. Doyle is 260 in total or 197 in the Championship.

Long is 243 in total or 285 in the Championship.

Holt shows as 140 in total or 198 in the Championship.

Even if I removed the International games I didn't get the same figure for Long (I made it a goal every 259 mins (31 in 8,036 mins)) although I think I did for Kitson after removing reserve team games.

[Snowball]

Snowball, what set of numbers from that site are you using? Have you checked any of the stats to see how accurate they are?

I'm not sure what numbers you post refers to. From what I can see Kitsons total is 239 over his whole career (or since 05/06 anyway) or 180 for just in the Championship. Doyle is 260 in total or 197 in the Championship.

Long is 243 in total or 285 in the Championship.

Holt shows as 140 in total or 198 in the Championship.

Even if I removed the International games I didn't get the same figure for Long (I made it a goal every 259 mins (31 in 8,036 mins)) although I think I did for Kitson after removing reserve team games.

You can do it season by season, but there's a button that gives you the overall number.

Why do you have Long down as 31 when he's scored 35?

I'll run the numbers again

[sandman]

Snowball, what set of numbers from that site are you using? Have you checked any of the stats to see how accurate they are?

I'm not sure what numbers you post refers to. From what I can see Kitsons total is 239 over his whole career (or since 05/06 anyway) or 180 for just in the Championship. Doyle is 260 in total or 197 in the Championship.

Long is 243 in total or 285 in the Championship.

Holt shows as 140 in total or 198 in the Championship.

Even if I removed the International games I didn't get the same figure for Long (I made it a goal every 259 mins (31 in 8,036 mins)) although I think I did for Kitson after removing reserve team games.

You can do it season by season, but there's a button that gives you the overall number.

Why do you have Long down as 31 when he's scored 35?

I'll run the numbers again

Please don't.

[Hoop Blah]

Why do you have Long down as 31 when he's scored 35?

Because that site tells me he has 33, but 2 are from internationals.

I'm assuming it hasn't been updated to reflect the weekend then.

[Snowball]

Long has 35 RFC goals and 5 international goals.

Doyle

243 Matches 75 Goals 18 Assists 17 Yellows 0 Reds 19,257 Minutes = A Goal every 260 Minutes (ALL Games)
211 Matches 67 Goals 17 Assists 16 Yellows 0 Reds 17,291 Minutes = A Goal every 258 Minutes (Domestic)

LONG

180 Matches 40 Goals 21 Assists 14 Yellows 2 Reds 08,650 Minutes = A Goal every 216 Minutes (ALL Games)
163 Matches 35 Goals 20 Assists 14 Yellows 2 Reds 08,436 Minutes = A Goal every 241 Minutes (Domestic)

If this weekend's minutes have not been added, then Shane's minutes go out to 218 (ALL Games) 243 Domestic

[Snowball]

LONG

180 Matches 40 Goals 21 Assists 14 Yellows 2 Reds 08,650 Minutes = A Goal every 216 Minutes (ALL Games)
163 Matches 35 Goals 20 Assists 14 Yellows 2 Reds 08,436 Minutes = A Goal every 241 Minutes (Domestic)

Hoop, If this weekend's minutes have not been added, then Shane's minutes go out to 218 (ALL Games) 243 Domestic

On my own spreadsheet I had Shane down as 8,613 minutes for RFC, but that is from looking up each match and copying, so mistakes could have been made. I have him down as 1,937 this year RFC + Ireland. They have 1,944. They have the correct goals etc for this season when you look at this season alone

[Hoop Blah]

So basically that site isn't worth using then?

It says that Longs career stats (Shane Long/Performance Data/Total Performance Data) are P176 G33 and so is quite a bit out from your numbers. For Doyle it seems to match up ok though, P243 G75.

Or are your numbers for Shane wrong because they're not what I'm seeing on that site?