Opposition fans back from the game - 24/25 page 225 onwards

[From Despair To Where?]

For once, a proper statistical analysis.

That Ryan Dilks fella is an idiot seduced siren like by his own hype.

[NewCorkSeth]

For once, a proper statistical analysis.

There is a reason he got offered an actual job with Peterborough. Unfortunately too many people see stats getting plopped about on social media and have no idea the work that needs to be done to use them properly.

BladesAnalytics is fantastic at what he does and it was a shame Sheffield United got promoted because he was doing staggering work analysing the Championship. I think his main area is player analysis which is what I think he does for the posh.

[Snowball]

Although, in a few games, sided have got behind the defence, as yet have we been cut open at all?

Blackburn’s two goals were exceptional striking, not “great chances”. The first, hooked shot was very well executed but was hardly an open goal. The second was more an in form striker turning a half chance into a goal.

Cardiff’s goal was a scramble which both/either of Rafael or Rhino might have stopped. was it from. Rafael error? Can’t remember.

Colchester’s goal was a very nice one but again was high quality striking rather than RDG been sliced open.

Lots of sides run around in midfield, send in crosses too deep etc but have we even for one game looked under any real pressure where Rafael was MoM making half a dozen great saves?

[Chameleon]

I think it’s fair to say that in the long run a team is unlikely to significantly outperform its xG. It can happen in cup competitions because you have to win relatively few games. Over the course of a league season you have to either have a great goalkeeper, very clinical forwards (which is much rarer) or a lot of luck.

It’s reasonable to assume we won’t keep converting so many of our shots to goals. But with our defence as good as it is, we can keep grinding out 1-0s and 0-0s.

Depends on the style of play. It's very possible to massively outperform xG over a season. Styles which involve creating a few high quality chances over many low quality chances get excessively punished by xG. Teams that go ahead then sit back get punished v teams that go behind and have to chase the game.

Last season Liverpool outperformed their xG by 25 points, and their xP was 2nd=. And of course in the Stam season we were 20th on xG.

[TiagoIlori]

People forget that with our defence we could easily scrape a lot of 1/2-0 wins this season, if they don’t work us out. My concern is what everyone should be thinking, what happens when we have a bad spell? Sheffield United, Bristol City, Nottingham Forest all examples of teams in recent years that faltered under pressure, only the former ended up going up the next season under the same manager.

[Snowflake Royal]

I think it’s fair to say that in the long run a team is unlikely to significantly outperform its xG. It can happen in cup competitions because you have to win relatively few games. Over the course of a league season you have to either have a great goalkeeper, very clinical forwards (which is much rarer) or a lot of luck.

It’s reasonable to assume we won’t keep converting so many of our shots to goals. But with our defence as good as it is, we can keep grinding out 1-0s and 0-0s.

Depends on the style of play. It's very possible to massively outperform xG over a season. Styles which involve creating a few high quality chances over many low quality chances get excessively punished by xG. Teams that go ahead then sit back get punished v teams that go behind and have to chase the game.

Last season Liverpool outperformed their xG by 25 points, and their xP was 2nd=. And of course in the Stam season we were 20th on xG.

This. This. This. And This.

[CountryRoyal]

People forget that with our defence we could easily scrape a lot of 1/2-0 wins this season, if they don’t work us out. My concern is what everyone should be thinking, what happens when we have a bad spell? Sheffield United, Bristol City, Nottingham Forest all examples of teams in recent years that faltered under pressure, only the former ended up going up the next season under the same manager.

Under Stam (po season) after a bad result we always seemed to bounce back straight away, and we had some really really really bad results.

I think that comes down to having a clear way you want to play, and the confidence and team spirit from doing well in the first place - so there’s no reason to think we can’t do the same but it will be interesting to find out nonetheless (hopefully we won’t have to #championshipinvincibles)

[TiagoIlori]

People forget that with our defence we could easily scrape a lot of 1/2-0 wins this season, if they don’t work us out. My concern is what everyone should be thinking, what happens when we have a bad spell? Sheffield United, Bristol City, Nottingham Forest all examples of teams in recent years that faltered under pressure, only the former ended up going up the next season under the same manager.

Under Stam (po season) after a bad result we always seemed to bounce back straight away, and we had some really really really bad results.

I think that comes down to having a clear way you want to play, and the confidence and team spirit from doing well in the first place - so there’s no reason to think we can’t do the same but it will be interesting to find out nonetheless (hopefully we won’t have to #championshipinvincibles)

Aye under Stam we definitely could answer that question, but I do remember us having a bad run of form from February to mid March winning something like 2 games from 8. We passed that test, Leeds had a terrible April which cost them a playoff spot that seemed so secure at the time. That’s what I mean by a bad spell, but of course us coming back from a heavy defeat so well was a unique factor we had in that season too and shows signs of a good team spirit as you said.

[Snowflake Royal]

I wonder if it's easier to write off a big defeat as just a bad day when you're doing well. Compared to a hard fought 0-1 for example.

[skipper]

A quick look at Sky Blues Talk suggests they're largely sh*tting it ahead of tonight's game. Expecting a pasting.

Let's hope we have prepared properly, and won't expect them to roll over. Surely every team we play must be wanting to score first against us, since no one has yet, to see how we react?

I expect us to win, due to form goals scored vs conceded (for both teams) but don't want to let this amazing start slip!

[Nameless]

Is solution to this Xg nonsense for us to just have a load of speculative shots in the last few minutes of games which we have already won ? Would that tweak the figures sothe kids with their spreadsheets wouldn’t think we weren’t actually doing that well, when in fact it’s obvious we are....

[SCIAG]

I know he has his detractors, but adding Swift back into this squad (even just as an option off the bench) would give us another dimension, particularly if teams start shutting up shop against us. But for the first time since we signed him, we’re not reliant on Swift for our creativity.

[NewCorkSeth]

Is solution to this Xg nonsense for us to just have a load of speculative shots in the last few minutes of games which we have already won ? Would that tweak the figures sothe kids with their spreadsheets wouldn’t think we weren’t actually doing that well, when in fact it’s obvious we are....

No. Thats not how xG works. It would alleviate concerns over our shot to goal ratio which is 10% higher than normal levels.

[Pepe the Horseman]

Is solution to this Xg nonsense for us to just have a load of speculative shots in the last few minutes of games which we have already won ? Would that tweak the figures sothe kids with their spreadsheets wouldn’t think we weren’t actually doing that well, when in fact it’s obvious we are....

Knowing our luck they'd all fly in, and it would make things even worse.

[From Despair To Where?]

I think the solution is to go unbeaten for a further 10 games and then say "So you still think we're lucky, punks?"

Meanwhile, Forest can continue to scrape along at a point and game and prolong their tallest dwarf contest with Derby and Watford can bumble along at a goal a game and keep saying "when we get Deeney back and our forwards start to click....."

[Hound]

I know he has his detractors, but adding Swift back into this squad (even just as an option off the bench) would give us another dimension, particularly if teams start shutting up shop against us. But for the first time since we signed him, we’re not reliant on Swift for our creativity.

Yep he’d be a fantastic option to have as well

Less pressure on him to create absolutely everything unlike last year which would be nice

[Kitsondinho]

I think the solution is to go unbeaten for a further 10 games and then say "So you still think we're lucky, punks?"

Meanwhile, Forest can continue to scrape along at a point and game and prolong their tallest dwarf contest with Derby and Watford can bumble along at a goal a game and keep saying "when we get Deeney back and our forwards start to click....."

As someone who lives in the Midlands and works with a Watford ST holder, this has made me as it is SO Oxford true!!!

[From Despair To Where?]

I think the solution is to go unbeaten for a further 10 games and then say "So you still think we're lucky, punks?"

Meanwhile, Forest can continue to scrape along at a point and game and prolong their tallest dwarf contest with Derby and Watford can bumble along at a goal a game and keep saying "when we get Deeney back and our forwards start to click....."

As someone who lives in the Midlands and works with a Watford ST holder, this has made me as it is SO Oxford true!!!

..and the really funny thing is, I could have picked any 2 of a dozen teams to illustrate the point.

And yet we've lost 10 or so 1st teamers, only made 1 new signing, a free transfer from League 2 and 3 loan signings, 2 of which are teenagers and one the Forest fans reckon is shit. Throw in a manager who joined the club 2 weeks before the start of the season and spent the first week in quarantine and the real question that needs answering is what is everyone else getting wrong that we are getting right?

Obviously, the answer is tactics, preparation, squad balance, fitness, team spirit, ability and good management.

[URZZZZZZZZ]

I’m starting to get very jittery about every match at the moment, which is a stark contrast to matches in recent seasons.

It’s great isn’t it!!

[Kitsondinho]

I think the solution is to go unbeaten for a further 10 games and then say "So you still think we're lucky, punks?"

Meanwhile, Forest can continue to scrape along at a point and game and prolong their tallest dwarf contest with Derby and Watford can bumble along at a goal a game and keep saying "when we get Deeney back and our forwards start to click....."

As someone who lives in the Midlands and works with a Watford ST holder, this has made me as it is SO Oxford true!!!

..and the really funny thing is, I could have picked any 2 of a dozen teams to illustrate the point.

And yet we've lost 10 or so 1st teamers, only made 1 new signing, a free transfer from League 2 and 3 loan signings, 2 of which are teenagers and one the Forest fans reckon is shit. Throw in a manager who joined the club 2 weeks before the start of the season and spent the first week in quarantine and the real question that needs answering is what is everyone else getting wrong that we are getting right?

Obviously, the answer is tactics, preparation, squad balance, fitness, team spirit, ability and good management.

Derby, Forest and Wednesday going down, as we go up, would be delicious!!