Confimred new owners of Raeding Footbal Club

[Who Moved The Goalposts?]

Net Debt reaches £38.1m

Interesting!

Apart from the net debt (which I guess is payable to a combo of the banks/AZ/SJM), the thing that immediately stands out is our commercial department seems to be underperforming. Surely we could at least match QPR and Southampton in that respect? The other figures tend to suggest we are running things as tight as we can get away with. Just goes to show that even a bottom of the league club cannot do things cheaply in the PL. QPR's figures are just laughable.

[genome]

LOL @ QPR

[Royal Rother]

Reading are around 11/2 to get promotion.

Promoted team >>>>> Promotion candidate >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Championship team

Difficult to calculate it without the actual values but I reckon it would be an odd gamble to take.

So those odds suggest it's a 1 in 5.5 chance of getting promotion, (but bookies odds are always "deflated" from reality, so you could say it's nearer 1 in 7, or 14.2% chance). On that basis it seems reasonable to suggest that a buyer would only be willing to pay 14.2% more as a result of being a candidate for promotion.

And it isn't as if he loses everything if we don't go up. The shares still have a value if we stay down.

Seems like a no-brainer of a gamble to me.

[Extended-Phenotype]

Reading are around 11/2 to get promotion.

Promoted team >>>>> Promotion candidate >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Championship team

Difficult to calculate it without the actual values but I reckon it would be an odd gamble to take.

So those odds suggest it's a 1 in 5.5 chance of getting promotion, (but bookies odds are always "deflated" from reality, so you could say it's nearer 1 in 7, or 14.2% chance). On that basis it seems reasonable to suggest that a buyer would only be willing to pay 14.2% more as a result of being a candidate for promotion.

And it isn't as if he loses everything if we don't go up. The shares still have a value if we stay down.

Seems like a no-brainer of a gamble to me.

Not suggesting he will lose everything if we stay in the championship. Just that their value now is higher, the likelihood of promotion not great and the likelihood of Reading losing players, reducing wages and performing worse if we remain is high.

I'd sell now.

[3points]

The shares still have a value if we stay down

You really think so with £38.1m of net debt as at last summer and a season of heavy losses this year? This followed by more seasons of losses? Personally I think the shares are worthless, and that is why a buyer can't be found, because AZ and SJM want someone to pay value for the shares. But then again, some nutcase has just paid £25m for Leeds supposedly!

[Stevie G]

The shares still have a value if we stay down

You really think so with £38.1m of net debt as at last summer and a season of heavy losses this year? This followed by more seasons of losses? Personally I think the shares are worthless, and that is why a buyer can't be found, because AZ and SJM want someone to pay value for the shares. But then again, some nutcase has just paid £25m for Leeds supposedly!

I agree with the logic, and as this creates uncertainty then this affects the performance. I also read the other day a view that the TSI deal could be a sting, own the controlling stake in the club, bring it to it's knees and then buy the remainder cut price. I'm sure that there are lots of possible permutations.

[Royal Rother]

The shares still have a value if we stay down

You really think so with £38.1m of net debt as at last summer and a season of heavy losses this year? This followed by more seasons of losses? Personally I think the shares are worthless, and that is why a buyer can't be found, because AZ and SJM want someone to pay value for the shares. But then again, some nutcase has just paid £25m for Leeds supposedly!

Point I was making was that whether they are worth £1 or £10m, they will only be worth a smallish percentage more right now (with a smallish chance of promotion), than if we end up in the same league at the beginning of next season, so it is an understandable "gamble" holding on to the shares for now because if we do go up they WOULD have a value.... (probably!).

[Reading4eva]

We won't be going up. I will run round Reading naked doing cartwheels if we do

[jellytot]

Probably for the best all round that we do not go up then!

To be fair. We are just not good enough. We have hardly functioned as a team all season. Only in bits. The league is so shite we are in 6th. Bournemouth are much better. Good luck to them. I imagine we will slip out in the next couple of games.. Leicester and Wigan. We will need 4 points from them really. If we do not have Williams available forget it all.

[Extended-Phenotype]

The shares still have a value if we stay down

You really think so with £38.1m of net debt as at last summer and a season of heavy losses this year? This followed by more seasons of losses? Personally I think the shares are worthless, and that is why a buyer can't be found, because AZ and SJM want someone to pay value for the shares. But then again, some nutcase has just paid £25m for Leeds supposedly!

Point I was making was that whether they are worth £1 or £10m, they will only be worth a smallish percentage more right now (with a smallish chance of promotion), than if we end up in the same league at the beginning of next season, so it is an understandable "gamble" holding on to the shares for now because if we do go up they WOULD have a value.... (probably!).

That doesn't really make any sense. If only a small value is added because the chance of promotion is small, you wouldn't hang on to the shares on the promise of promotion. I don't think, anyway.

[multisync1830]

hopefully that loss figure will put paid to all those who believe the club is loaded. The fact is that they are running out of time to secure a buyer. It still could turn nasty.

[Royal Rother]

Point I was making was that whether they are worth £1 or £10m, they will only be worth a smallish percentage more right now (with a smallish chance of promotion), than if we end up in the same league at the beginning of next season, so it is an understandable "gamble" holding on to the shares for now because if we do go up they WOULD have a value.... (probably!).

That doesn't really make any sense. If only a small value is added because the chance of promotion is small, you wouldn't hang on to the shares on the promise of promotion. I don't think, anyway.

Eh?

Yes you would because if we do go up the shares increase significantly in value.

Stay down and the shares won't be worth significantly less than they are now, with a small chance of promotion.

If he lost his stake (shares) if we failed to go up it would be a different consideration entirely, but he wouldn't.

[Extended-Phenotype]

Point I was making was that whether they are worth £1 or £10m, they will only be worth a smallish percentage more right now (with a smallish chance of promotion), than if we end up in the same league at the beginning of next season, so it is an understandable "gamble" holding on to the shares for now because if we do go up they WOULD have a value.... (probably!).

That doesn't really make any sense. If only a small value is added because the chance of promotion is small, you wouldn't hang on to the shares on the promise of promotion. I don't think, anyway.

Eh?

Yes you would because if we do go up the shares increase significantly in value.

If he lost his stake (shares) if we failed to go up it would be a different consideration entirely, but he wouldn't.

But like you said, the chances of promotion are small, so the chances of the value increasing more than they are now are likewise small. So they are probably at the highest value they are most likely to be, so it would be logical to sell now.

It's not complicated, eh-face.

[paddy20]

Isn't this all a bit academic if, despite numerous visits no-one has shown the slightest interest in buying.

[Extended-Phenotype]

I think whether or not Anton may be thinking of holding on to his shares or not, is fairly relevant to a thread about a buyout.

[paddy20]

I think whether or not Anton may be thinking of holding on to his shares or not, is fairly relevant to a thread about a buyout.

It would seem he has no choice whatsoever as no-one wants to buy them

[melonhead]

Isn't this all a bit academic if, despite numerous visits no-one has shown the slightest interest in buying.

a visit by prospective buyers is a sign of some interest

[SPARTA]

I think whether or not Anton may be thinking of holding on to his shares or not, is fairly relevant to a thread about a buyout.

It would seem he has no choice whatsoever as no-one wants to buy them

There's plenty of interest, it's just for some reason it all comes to an abrupt end - we assume because of money. The debt as of last summer was £38.1m, and that will be even greater now. If AZ and SJM want £20m for the shares as well, it's no wonder we can't secure a new owner.

[paddy20]

Isn't this all a bit academic if, despite numerous visits no-one has shown the slightest interest in buying.

a visit by prospective buyers is a sign of some interest

Its a bit like opening a shop and loads of customers coming in but no-one buys. Something is wrong, either the price is too high, the wages are too high or the team aren't very good. Or of course all three!

[andrew1957]

I think whether or not Anton may be thinking of holding on to his shares or not, is fairly relevant to a thread about a buyout.

It would seem he has no choice whatsoever as no-one wants to buy them

There's plenty of interest, it's just for some reason it all comes to an abrupt end - we assume because of money. The debt as of last summer was £38.1m, and that will be even greater now. If AZ and SJM want £20m for the shares as well, it's no wonder we can't secure a new owner.

60M or so does not sound a lot for a club of Reading's stature. Good stadium, strong fan base, fantastic youth academy.

I genuinely hope (want to think) that the delay if more to do with SJM's genuine desire to find someone with actual real money rather than another wannabe.