89 Points?

[Snowball]

Bristol City looked a solid outfit so I got that wrong,
but sheesh we were bad today and outnumbered again by a midfield 5.

I can only remember them getting two chances. Did Feds make a save?

[Platypuss]

SnowbaLOLLOL's spastistics.

[Snowball]

Enjoy...

[andrew1957]

Bristol City looked a solid outfit so I got that wrong,
but sheesh we were bad today and outnumbered again by a midfield 5.

I can only remember them getting two chances. Did Feds make a save?

In my recollection their keper made his first propper save in the 94th minute and Fed made no saves at all.

[Alan Partridge]

I think they'll be really up for Saturday,they'll have 4000 fans cheering them on, they'll be annoyed they lost in the week and will want to put that 4-1 right.

............but they wont.

Might do........

And did.

[AthleticoSpizz]

IN THE WHOLE OF THE SEASON, NEVER MIND THIS RUN, BRISTOL HAVE NOT BEATEN A CURRENT TOP HALF SIDE. NOT ONE!

great, nice timing Snowman

Shut your festering mouth

[CMRoyal]

FWIW, updated forecast finish based on an average of points so far and current form (last 6 matches). It's tightening up in there:-

1. Cardiff - 82
2. Reading - 81
3. Wolves - 80
4. Brum - 80
5. Bristol can't beat top half teams City - 77
6. Swansea - 75

[Snowball]

FWIW, updated forecast finish based on an average of points so far and current form (last 6 matches). It's tightening up in there:-

1. Cardiff - 82
2. Reading - 81
3. Wolves - 80
4. Brum - 80
5. Bristol can't beat top half teams City - 77
6. Swansea - 75

The stat was true up to us blowing it.

Reading, Birmingham, Cardiff, Swansea, and probably Preston, Wolves, Sheff Utd and Burnley will finish above Bristol

[roberto_11]

So basically, form here on in, if we average 2 points a game, we are home and dry.

And this is the problem with the argument

[Snowball]

So basically, form here on in, if we average 2 points a game, we are home and dry.

And this is the problem with the argument

Of course, form for the season or current form is no absolute predictor, but it's interesting that when you look at our last 12 which included all the current top six plus Swansea and QPR we've managed 22 points in 12, almost 2 points a game.

Now, with the Bristol defeat 2 points a game (28) would give us 87 almost certainly a top-two place

This is who we have left

2nd H ? Birmingham
7th H ? Sheffield Utd
10th H W Ipswich (I wouldn't say a win was a foregone conclusion)
12th A D Wednesday (we could win there)
13th A ? Coventry

14th A D Palace (maybe a win here?)
15th A ? Derby
16th A ? Doncaster
17th A D Blackpool
19th H W Barnsley
20th A W Plymouth
21st H W Forest
22nd A W Norwich
24th H W Charlton

21 points look possible (takes us to 80) (suggesting WWDD v Norwich, Ipswich, Wednesday, Palace, we might do better)

PLUS the games at Derby, Doncaster, Coventry
and home to Birmingham and Sheffield United

Looks like we have to win all our home games (6) and two away (Norwich? Plymouth?) to get to 83 and then get something from Derby, (looking tough) Donny (looks tough), Coventry (beat Wolves and Brum), Palace, Blackpool, Wednesday. If we don't win all our home games, we are going to need much improved away form)

[Arch]

SnowbaLOLLOL's spastistics.

And yet he demonstrated all too clearly that Bristol City prosper against poor opposition. We should be congratulating him for his insight.

[Snowball]

And yet he demonstrated all too clearly that Bristol City prosper against poor opposition. We should be congratulating him for his insight.

We are not a poor side.

We are effectively seven points ahead of them with two games in hand, with 14/12 to play and Bristol have a lot of VERY tough games to play. They will fall away.

Bristol City's wins up to the game against Reading WERE against very poor opposition, all the bottom sides. They managed to beat the side in twelfth 1-0 and they scraped/scrapped a draw 2-2 against the out-of-form leaders.

Their form against the top sides over the season was appalling.

But Saturday they were solid, we were off-colour. Big deal.

[1960]

After the Forest game we will have five home games left and eight away. This is all the more reason we MUST beat Forest. Even if we win all our home matches (unlikely) we will have 77 points, so to get to 89 we would need 12 points from eight away games. Every time we drop points at home means that we will need more away.

I'm wondering though. The 89 points of this thread was set when Wolves us and Brum were in a three-horse race. Since this all three of us are struggling Cardiff and possibly others are getting close. Does this mean that the division is concertina-ing together and that the top team will get nowhere near 89?

(sorry, repeated some of Snowball's points here. That'll learn me to read threads properly. Doesn't change the accuracy of them, however).

[Snowball]

After the Forest game we will have five home games left and eight away. This is all the more reason we MUST beat Forest. Even if we win all our home matches (unlikely) we will have 77 points, so to get to 89 we would need 12 points from eight away games. Every time we drop points at home means that we will need more away.

.

Agreed we can't afford slip-ups at home now and we have three difficult games,
Ipswich (on form) Sheffield United and Birmingham

The next four games are all very winnable. We need ten points from them, twelve would be nice

Home Nottm Forest
Away Sheffield Wed
Away Plymouth
Home Charlton

I'm wondering though. The 89 points of this thread was set when Wolves us and Brum were in a three-horse race. Since this all three of us are struggling Cardiff and possibly others are getting close. Does this mean that the division is concertina-ing together and that the top team will get nowhere near 89?

I very much doubt any side will now get 90. We could still get 89 but that needs an immediate turn-round (like win the next four) = 71 points then we'd need 18 points from 10 games = 1.8 per game

Sides rarely go up without averaging over 1.8 points per game on the run-in

[Snowball]

We are still favourites to win the championship


worst-best odds

6/4 8/5 Reading
11/8 2/1 Wolves
4/1 22/5 Birmingham
5/1 13/2 Cardiff
40/1 109/1 Bristol City
25/1 87/1 Swansea
50/1 100/1 Burnley
50/1 169/1 Sheffield United
66/1 209/1 Preston

[CMRoyal]

An update to my "where teams are headed based on current form" forecast:-

1. Wolves - 79 pts
2. Brum - 76*
3. Reading - 76*
4. Bristol C - 75*
5. Cardiff - 75*
6. Preston - 73*
7. Sheff U - 73*
8. Swansea - 72

* points are roundings, so position decided by decimal points rather than goal difference.

[The Prisoner]

Bookies usually know what they are talking about. Sporting index is giving a points forecast. I have taken the middle of their range of forecasts and rounded down:

1. Wolves 82
2. Reading 81
3. Birmingham 79
4. Cardiff 76
5. Sheff U 72
6. Preston 71
7. Swansea 70
8. Bristol City 69
9. Burnley 67
10. Ipswich 66

What does that mean? probably cock all.

[Southbank Old Boy]

As was pointed out though, they make money by changing their books to meet the changing market

That might be an accurate estimate right now, but I bet it will be a little different in 3 or 4 weeks time, as it was before xmas

[bcubed]

Bookies usually know what they are talking about. Sporting index is giving a points forecast. I have taken the middle of their range of forecasts and rounded down:

1. Wolves 82
2. Reading 81
3. Birmingham 79
4. Cardiff 76
5. Sheff U 72
6. Preston 71
7. Swansea 70
8. Bristol City 69
9. Burnley 67
10. Ipswich 66

What does that mean? probably cock all.

Coppell says if we remain unbeaten we will be ok

On the basis that the form of the top three (and Cardiff) is picking up I used BBC predictor again and got this, assuming all four win their home games and draw away

1. Wolves 88
2. Reading 84
3. Cardiff 83
4. Birmingham 83

[Ian Royal]

problem is I can see us drawing a fair few and still losing the at least 1 more game, possibly 2-3.