How bad would relegation be?

[Snowflake Royal]

Agree that any fee for them would be a positive but I also wouldn't want to be subsidising a large portion of their wages either if they moved elsewhere, again, it just eats into what we can offer other players.

It also depends if we will remain under an embargo next season as well, meaning we wouldn't be able to spend money on players again and would be restricted to what we can offer in terms of wages. Given the fact we'd end up with so many players leaving, I can imagine it would be far more lenient next season than this season.

Also, their wages wouldn't fund 6-8 L1 players wages, unless you were talking bottom L1 clubs' wages, which we would want to avoid I'm sure.

No way I'd accept a deal that didn't get them off the wage bill completely

Which is exactly my point, we end up keeping them on our wage bill. It wouldn't be a bad thing per say, we'd get to keep 3 players who were too good for L1 around and hopefully see us get the goals necessary for promotion, but if it doesn't work like that, then it leaves us with a problem. As teams like Sunderland, Ipswich and likely Sheff Wednesday have encountered recently.

As you stated above, their wages are probably equivalent to 2-4 L1 players' salaries as well, on average anyway. So it's a case of either keep those 3 around potentially and have a smaller squad of sell them on, hopefully with someone paying all of their wages and recruit potentially up to 6 other players. I wouldn't quite describe it as a "lose-lose" scenario, as both options have it's positives, but both could work out badly for us as well.

It's 3 talented players. It's not an issue.

They either provide quality or the room and cash to bring in more than just replacements.

The issue is having many players on £20k plus, especially poor performers. Three, all of whom should eat L1 alive, is fine

[YorkshireRoyal99]

No way I'd accept a deal that didn't get them off the wage bill completely

Which is exactly my point, we end up keeping them on our wage bill. It wouldn't be a bad thing per say, we'd get to keep 3 players who were too good for L1 around and hopefully see us get the goals necessary for promotion, but if it doesn't work like that, then it leaves us with a problem. As teams like Sunderland, Ipswich and likely Sheff Wednesday have encountered recently.

As you stated above, their wages are probably equivalent to 2-4 L1 players' salaries as well, on average anyway. So it's a case of either keep those 3 around potentially and have a smaller squad of sell them on, hopefully with someone paying all of their wages and recruit potentially up to 6 other players. I wouldn't quite describe it as a "lose-lose" scenario, as both options have it's positives, but both could work out badly for us as well.

It's 3 talented players. It's not an issue.

They either provide quality or the room and cash to bring in more than just replacements.

The issue is having many players on £20k plus, especially poor performers. Three, all of whom should eat L1 alive, is fine

Well no they don't necessarily provide quality or cash to bring in more than just replacements though do they. They should, in theory, do that, but that might not be the case and that might not always translate to performances on the pitch.

I'm not suggesting that they wouldn't be able to do that, but it's not a given.

[Sanguine]

Seems strange to read arguments that certain players would be too good for League One a couple of weeks after we have lost to Kidderminster.

[Simon's Church]

Seems strange to read arguments that certain players would be too good for League One a couple of weeks after we have lost to Kidderminster.

Nobody is claiming Claudio Osorio and Ethan Bristow are too good for league one though are they?

[Sanguine]

Seems strange to read arguments that certain players would be too good for League One a couple of weeks after we have lost to Kidderminster.

Nobody is claiming Claudio Osorio and Ethan Bristow are too good for league one though are they?

No, they aren't. I've no idea why you've written that.

[Hound]

Seems strange to read arguments that certain players would be too good for League One a couple of weeks after we have lost to Kidderminster.

yep specifically talking about Joao, Ejaria and Meite as 3 of the players still under contract next year. I dont think any other player is being discussed as too good for Div1

[Royal_jimmy]

It also depends at what cost it would mean selling them for. How much of a fee would we get for them and would we be subsidising those wages as well. Meite and Joao we could get a decent fee for and we probably wouldn't end up subsidising their wages but I wouldn't be so sure with Ejaria.

Baldock, McNulty and Aluko probably would have done well in League One though in all fairness, they'd have been good players in that league, granted their wages were high but I'm sure we'd have had relegation release clauses in there somewhere, or a wage drop clause.

The problem with starting from zero is a) it depends how much we can offer players according to our restrictions and b) it means having a transition of probably 15-20 first team players which will be tough to manoeuvre for any incoming manager.

Any fees in for them would be a positive. A few million for the lot would fund a fair few L1 transfer fees and their wages would fund 6 - 8 L1 players' wages.

Agree that any fee for them would be a positive but I also wouldn't want to be subsidising a large portion of their wages either if they moved elsewhere, again, it just eats into what we can offer other players.

It also depends if we will remain under an embargo next season as well, meaning we wouldn't be able to spend money on players again and would be restricted to what we can offer in terms of wages. Given the fact we'd end up with so many players leaving, I can imagine it would be far more lenient next season than this season.

Also, their wages wouldn't fund 6-8 L1 players wages, unless you were talking bottom L1 clubs' wages, which we would want to avoid I'm sure.

These things sound good on paper but it isnt reality. Yes the average wage in league one is only about £2.4k a week but the EFL rules are that player wages can only cover a maximum of 60% turnover. With 8k attendances per home game I don't think we'll have much headroom to recruit to be honest as we probably spend a lot more than that even with the players off the wage bill. And I'm not convinced many of the academy lads will be up to league one football either. I've seen enough league one matches to say it's a hard league and all sides in the top half are no mugs. You need physicality to do well with fewer luxury and lightweight players.

I'd only say Clarke, Tetek and maybe Azeez would make it at that level. The others will be playing their careers at L2 or lower in all likelihood.

So for me it's more likely we'll drop to league 2, maybe even near the bottom of league 2 before we would bounce back up and I dont fancy league 2 football. Its absolutely dire.

Finally I dont get the obsession with how much a player earns. I'd rather spend more on wages if we get the right character who fits the system. Swift earns £25k a week, he hasn't exactly flopped has he? But yes the club must learn from past mistakes.

[Royal_jimmy]

Seems strange to read arguments that certain players would be too good for League One a couple of weeks after we have lost to Kidderminster.

Nobody is claiming Claudio Osorio and Ethan Bristow are too good for league one though are they?

Probably not good enough for league one either!

[Hound]

to be honest, really don't see the 'we'll drop into div 2' argument either. Would say thats very unlikely. There are some really poor teams down the bottom of that division. I just think we'd be bang mid table average for a year or two

[URZZZZ]

to be honest, really don't see the 'we'll drop into div 2' argument either. Would say thats very unlikely. There are some really poor teams down the bottom of that division. I just think we'd be bang mid table average for a year or two

Just to add - at least one team relegated from the Championship has been promoted back up the next season in the last 6 seasons. On one occasion, all three relegated teams came straight back up back in 2018 and with Rotherham, Wycombe and Wednesday all up there this season, it’s looking like 7 in a row

Sure, if we did drop, don’t think it’d be an easy league to get out of but dismissing us completely is equally strange

[Elm Park Kid]

From a financial perspective - As long as the owners stay then our issue is with how FFP is managed/enforced rather than our actual income vs expenditure. I'm assuming that there are some kind of mitigating factors as otherwise pretty much every big Championship side that was relegated into League One would have had points deductions.

If we went down and couldn't off-load our higher wage players then I can't see the EFL doing anything. We're following their instructions, abiding by transfer/wage restraints, taking reasonable steps to cut costs. Getting relegated is not acting in a financially irresponsible manner. All I can see is that we would have further restrictions on signings/contract renewals and would be forced to accept all reasonable bids for players.

Assuming that Pauno leaves when his contract ends, we get someone in that knows the league, and we keep all the players who aren't out of contract, I think we would have a good run. It's not like we'd be some big-name team like Sunderland who go down and just arrogantly assume we'd go back up. I personally think we would quickly adapt and might even find some self respect again.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

From a financial perspective - As long as the owners stay then our issue is with how FFP is managed/enforced rather than our actual income vs expenditure. I'm assuming that there are some kind of mitigating factors as otherwise pretty much every big Championship side that was relegated into League One would have had points deductions.

If we went down and couldn't off-load our higher wage players then I can't see the EFL doing anything. We're following their instructions, abiding by transfer/wage restraints, taking reasonable steps to cut costs. Getting relegated is not acting in a financially irresponsible manner. All I can see is that we would have further restrictions on signings/contract renewals and would be forced to accept all reasonable bids for players.

Assuming that Pauno leaves when his contract ends, we get someone in that knows the league, and we keep all the players who aren't out of contract, I think we would have a good run. It's not like we'd be some big-name team like Sunderland who go down and just arrogantly assume we'd go back up. I personally think we would quickly adapt and might even find some self respect again.

I don't think its a case of having "further" restrictions, more just a continuation of the restrictions we currently operate under that we were told would be enforced on the club for the next two seasons. I don't think we'd be forced to accept any bids for any players either.

I agree in principle, being relegated is not a financially irresponsible action from the club, but maintaining our high earners would be if it meant we did not meet the 60% turnover threshold and/or this violated our Business Plan agreement with the EFL, I'd imagine both go hand in hand. Granted, I don't think that would be the case, but we cannot be sure of that without seeing published accounts.

I think it would be a struggle to keep all the players who are out of contract this summer when their deals would expire. I'm not sure why the likes of Rino, Laurent or Holmes would play for us in L1 when they'd likely have at least half a dozen reasonable Championship clubs who would come in for them for free and likely offering a more lucrative deal than we would. But, as you say, it could all fit into place near perfectly and we could come up at the first attempt. That's not exactly unlikely, but I just don't think it would happen. Likewise, I don't think we'd drop down to L2 either.

[Hound]

to be honest, really don't see the 'we'll drop into div 2' argument either. Would say thats very unlikely. There are some really poor teams down the bottom of that division. I just think we'd be bang mid table average for a year or two

Just to add - at least one team relegated from the Championship has been promoted back up the next season in the last 6 seasons. On one occasion, all three relegated teams came straight back up back in 2018 and with Rotherham, Wycombe and Wednesday all up there this season, it’s looking like 7 in a row

Sure, if we did drop, don’t think it’d be an easy league to get out of but dismissing us completely is equally strange

certainly wouldn't rule it out, but it completely depends on who we keep/stays etc. It really looks like we could lose virtually the entire playing squad. Without knowing the sides particularly well, but just from hearing familiar names, I think Rotherham have basically kept much the same side as they regularly yoyo with, Wycombe the basis of the side that went up and did ok in the champ, and glancing at Sheff Weds side, they seem to have managed to keep hold of a number of their players from last year.

Totally dependent on who comes in with us. I think we'd have to recruit very well, and manage to keep hold of some of the oocs to challenge at the top, and likewise recruit pretty badly to be battling it out with ' clubs like ' Wimbledon and Fleetwood at the bottom

[Stranded]

From a financial perspective - As long as the owners stay then our issue is with how FFP is managed/enforced rather than our actual income vs expenditure. I'm assuming that there are some kind of mitigating factors as otherwise pretty much every big Championship side that was relegated into League One would have had points deductions.

If we went down and couldn't off-load our higher wage players then I can't see the EFL doing anything. We're following their instructions, abiding by transfer/wage restraints, taking reasonable steps to cut costs. Getting relegated is not acting in a financially irresponsible manner. All I can see is that we would have further restrictions on signings/contract renewals and would be forced to accept all reasonable bids for players.

Assuming that Pauno leaves when his contract ends, we get someone in that knows the league, and we keep all the players who aren't out of contract, I think we would have a good run. It's not like we'd be some big-name team like Sunderland who go down and just arrogantly assume we'd go back up. I personally think we would quickly adapt and might even find some self respect again.

I don't think its a case of having "further" restrictions, more just a continuation of the restrictions we currently operate under that we were told would be enforced on the club for the next two seasons. I don't think we'd be forced to accept any bids for any players either.

I agree in principle, being relegated is not a financially irresponsible action from the club, but maintaining our high earners would be if it meant we did not meet the 60% turnover threshold and/or this violated our Business Plan agreement with the EFL, I'd imagine both go hand in hand. Granted, I don't think that would be the case, but we cannot be sure of that without seeing published accounts.

I think it would be a struggle to keep all the players who are out of contract this summer when their deals would expire. I'm not sure why the likes of Rino, Laurent or Holmes would play for us in L1 when they'd likely have at least half a dozen reasonable Championship clubs who would come in for them for free and likely offering a more lucrative deal than we would. But, as you say, it could all fit into place near perfectly and we could come up at the first attempt. That's not exactly unlikely, but I just don't think it would happen. Likewise, I don't think we'd drop down to L2 either.

It's quite clear in the documentation of the agreed decision that if we get relegated the agreed wage budget of 16mn will be cut, it is unclear by how much this would be cut but I would fully expect it to be by at least 25% if not more. With a drastic cut in income, we'll be selling anyone we can to ensure we don't breach FFP again.

[blythspartan]

I have already convinced myself that we’ll be relegated this season but waiting to see how we get on against Bristol City and Coventry. If we lose both games the name of this thread will need to be changed from “would” to “will”.

I obviously want them to stay up but I’d honestly support them in any league so I am not fearful about relegation. Maybe I want to relive my youth as I miss the days of going to the Spread Eagle, travelling to places like Priestfield and taunting Wolves fans after we beat them 1-0 in the League Cup.

[Forbury Lion]

Impossible to say, We have a team which on paper is too good for League 1 so they won't want to stick around even if we could afford to keep them.

The owners have owned one club elsewhere which went out of existence, If Sir John Madejski was still in charge I would feel less concerned about the future of the club

I'm not saying we deserve to stay up or anything if we get relegated, I reckon there are a number of league 1 teams better than us who deserve our spot in the Championship, the worrying thing is that if we do get relegated we will struggle in that league as well.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

From a financial perspective - As long as the owners stay then our issue is with how FFP is managed/enforced rather than our actual income vs expenditure. I'm assuming that there are some kind of mitigating factors as otherwise pretty much every big Championship side that was relegated into League One would have had points deductions.

If we went down and couldn't off-load our higher wage players then I can't see the EFL doing anything. We're following their instructions, abiding by transfer/wage restraints, taking reasonable steps to cut costs. Getting relegated is not acting in a financially irresponsible manner. All I can see is that we would have further restrictions on signings/contract renewals and would be forced to accept all reasonable bids for players.

Assuming that Pauno leaves when his contract ends, we get someone in that knows the league, and we keep all the players who aren't out of contract, I think we would have a good run. It's not like we'd be some big-name team like Sunderland who go down and just arrogantly assume we'd go back up. I personally think we would quickly adapt and might even find some self respect again.

I don't think its a case of having "further" restrictions, more just a continuation of the restrictions we currently operate under that we were told would be enforced on the club for the next two seasons. I don't think we'd be forced to accept any bids for any players either.

I agree in principle, being relegated is not a financially irresponsible action from the club, but maintaining our high earners would be if it meant we did not meet the 60% turnover threshold and/or this violated our Business Plan agreement with the EFL, I'd imagine both go hand in hand. Granted, I don't think that would be the case, but we cannot be sure of that without seeing published accounts.

I think it would be a struggle to keep all the players who are out of contract this summer when their deals would expire. I'm not sure why the likes of Rino, Laurent or Holmes would play for us in L1 when they'd likely have at least half a dozen reasonable Championship clubs who would come in for them for free and likely offering a more lucrative deal than we would. But, as you say, it could all fit into place near perfectly and we could come up at the first attempt. That's not exactly unlikely, but I just don't think it would happen. Likewise, I don't think we'd drop down to L2 either.

It's quite clear in the documentation of the agreed decision that if we get relegated the agreed wage budget of 16mn will be cut, it is unclear by how much this would be cut but I would fully expect it to be by at least 25% if not more. With a drastic cut in income, we'll be selling anyone we can to ensure we don't breach FFP again.

Yeah I wouldn't expect budgets to be the same by any means if we were to be relegated due to obviously our income will be less, therefore so should our wage budget but on the flip side that puts even more pressure on ourselves to move our high earners out of the club as well potentially, depending on what the wage budget for the year will be. I don't doubt it probably will be done, but it depends at what cost as well.

[Snowflake Royal]

I don't think its a case of having "further" restrictions, more just a continuation of the restrictions we currently operate under that we were told would be enforced on the club for the next two seasons. I don't think we'd be forced to accept any bids for any players either.

I agree in principle, being relegated is not a financially irresponsible action from the club, but maintaining our high earners would be if it meant we did not meet the 60% turnover threshold and/or this violated our Business Plan agreement with the EFL, I'd imagine both go hand in hand. Granted, I don't think that would be the case, but we cannot be sure of that without seeing published accounts.

I think it would be a struggle to keep all the players who are out of contract this summer when their deals would expire. I'm not sure why the likes of Rino, Laurent or Holmes would play for us in L1 when they'd likely have at least half a dozen reasonable Championship clubs who would come in for them for free and likely offering a more lucrative deal than we would. But, as you say, it could all fit into place near perfectly and we could come up at the first attempt. That's not exactly unlikely, but I just don't think it would happen. Likewise, I don't think we'd drop down to L2 either.

It's quite clear in the documentation of the agreed decision that if we get relegated the agreed wage budget of 16mn will be cut, it is unclear by how much this would be cut but I would fully expect it to be by at least 25% if not more. With a drastic cut in income, we'll be selling anyone we can to ensure we don't breach FFP again.

Yeah I wouldn't expect budgets to be the same by any means if we were to be relegated due to obviously our income will be less, therefore so should our wage budget but on the flip side that puts even more pressure on ourselves to move our high earners out of the club as well potentially, depending on what the wage budget for the year will be. I don't doubt it probably will be done, but it depends at what cost as well.

We've already sorted out most the earners going, which leaves 3, who would all be easy to move on for modest fees.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

It's quite clear in the documentation of the agreed decision that if we get relegated the agreed wage budget of 16mn will be cut, it is unclear by how much this would be cut but I would fully expect it to be by at least 25% if not more. With a drastic cut in income, we'll be selling anyone we can to ensure we don't breach FFP again.

Yeah I wouldn't expect budgets to be the same by any means if we were to be relegated due to obviously our income will be less, therefore so should our wage budget but on the flip side that puts even more pressure on ourselves to move our high earners out of the club as well potentially, depending on what the wage budget for the year will be. I don't doubt it probably will be done, but it depends at what cost as well.

We've already sorted out most the earners going, which leaves 3, who would all be easy to move on for modest fees.

Yes, if we lived in an ideal world, which we don't. Having said that we'd command a solid fee for Puscas should Pisa get promoted so I suppose anything is possible.

[Snowflake Royal]

Yeah I wouldn't expect budgets to be the same by any means if we were to be relegated due to obviously our income will be less, therefore so should our wage budget but on the flip side that puts even more pressure on ourselves to move our high earners out of the club as well potentially, depending on what the wage budget for the year will be. I don't doubt it probably will be done, but it depends at what cost as well.

We've already sorted out most the earners going, which leaves 3, who would all be easy to move on for modest fees.

Yes, if we lived in an ideal world, which we don't. Having said that we'd command a solid fee for Puscas should Pisa get promoted so I suppose anything is possible.

I'm not talking about an ideal world I'm talking about a conservative view of the real one.