play-offs?

[Terminal Boardom]

The words "Fools" and "Deluded" spring to mind.

[T.R.O.L.I.]

At least the words "relegation" and "certainties" don't spring to mind any more

[Silver Fox]

The words "Fools" and "Deluded" spring to mind.

I never really had you down as deluded TBF

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Surely this thread can be closed now?

Being extremely generous we are going to need minimum 67 pts to get 6th & even that is highly unlikely seeing as Swansea, Leicester & Pool all have more than 60 pts already.

That would require 5 wins from 7 & we have Newcastle to play & Cardiff away.

Not going to happen!!

We needed to remain pretty much unbeaten for the rest of the season to catch them.

Mid table finish is fantastic though so well done Brian.

Seeing as you've contradicted yourself in the two sentences in bold, I fail to see why it should be closed.

I agree that it is highly unlikely that we will make the playoffs, but as it is still mathematically possible, why piss on a thread of optimism when 3 months ago anyone discussing the playoffs would have been dragged off by the men in white coats.

I think they're waiting outside your house now. Don't really see what was so contradictory in my post. We couldn't afford to drop many points at all & we've dropped 4 last 2 games.

Posting something remotely sane does not equate to pessimism!

[CMRoyal]

Feels weird that most of the division has only four games left and yet we are still not certain which of the three top divisions we'll be in next season. Must be 99% certain of staying put now, surely? Especially as Blackpool have got over their slump. Whatever hapens now, Brian has done a fantastic job and if we reach my most positive pre-season hope (8th place) I'd be more than delighted. Deep down, I really don't want us to reach the playoffs. Next season we'll have a great chance of promotion and the younger players will be that much better for the extra 12 months' experience at this level.

[brendywendy]

dont see why swansea or cardiff or leicester will not lose a couple more games before the end of the season, and see no reason why we cant make those points up in that time.
i doubt it, but with our good run, and their wobbles its by no means certain

[T.R.O.L.I.]

dont see why swansea or cardiff or leicester will not lose a couple more games before the end of the season, and see no reason why we cant make those points up in that time.

Run ins:

Cardiff: Reading (h), QPR (a), Sheff Weds (h), Derby (a)
Swansea: Bristol City (a), Barnsley (h), Sheff Utd (a), Doncaster (h)
Leicester: Peterborough (a), Watford (h), Preston (a), Middlesbrough (h)

Of the three, I think only Swansea will drop enough points for us to be ablwe to catch them - whether we pick up the required number of points still remains to be seen though.

[CMRoyal]

dont see why swansea or cardiff or leicester will not lose a couple more games before the end of the season, and see no reason why we cant make those points up in that time.
i doubt it, but with our good run, and their wobbles its by no means certain

True, but we need to better all but two of the records of those teams plus Blackpool, Boro, Bristol City, Sheff Utd and Doncaster. OK we have those games in hand, but it is a massive 'ask', as you youngsters say.

[brendywendy]

hey! i said it wasnt likely

but certainkly not time to close this thread just yet!

[Ian Royal]

There is no way we are going down. It may be mathmatically possible, although I'm not sure if who plays who has been calculated into it. Just points totals and games remaining.

We need at least another 15 points to make the play offs without it being a record low total, which I can't see happening. We're pretty much certain to be in this division next season.

For the record I reckon we'll finish on about 63 - 66 in 9th - 12th ish. With Swansea missing out to Blackpool & 73 being the 6th place total.

[CMRoyal]

There is no way we are going down. It may be mathmatically possible, although I'm not sure if who plays who has been calculated into it. Just points totals and games remaining.

My son - mindful of the slide in the one season we've finished in the bottom half of a table since he started following us - has run scores into the predictor that assume we lose every game and that the teams below us (or furthest below us if two teams lower than us are playing each other*) win every one of their games. Apparently that means we could go down on goal difference on the last day. Obviously there are other scenarios (ie QPR and Watford drawing rather than the lowest of the two winning) but it's certainly safe to say that it would be a freaky, odds-defying relegation if it happened.



*But not Plymouth or Posh when they are playing other teams below us. Confused? You will be...

[RoyalChicagoFC]

FAO Ian and...

Feels weird that most of the division has only four games left and yet we are still not certain which of the three top divisions we'll be in next season. Must be 99% certain of staying put now, surely?

Covered here just yesterday, at least from the standpoint of relegation (in a thread with a title that wouldn't necessarily lend itself to the curious looking there for this sort of information --and it may be worth posting here anyway):

--Any three points won by us or dropped by Sheffield Wednesday the rest of the way would make us safe
--Or any four points won by us/dropped by Palace
--Or any six points won by us/dropped by Watford

There are other applicable scenarios associated with sides farther up the table, but I'll limit things to the above scenarios because any of them could play out on Saturday --and if at least one of them were to do so, we'd be safe with five games left (for us) to play

EDIT/correction: Since Wednesday host Palace on the season's final day and at least one of them will lose points, I've crunched out the Wendy win/Palace win/draw scenarios

--If Wendy were to lose, that would make us safe if we were to claim no more points this season
--If Palace were to lose, or if the two sides were to draw, then a draw in any of our remaining games would suffice, in combination with either result, to make us safe

Bottom line: a draw with Cardiff on Saturday would make us safe

Now then, as for finishing amongst the top six (and bearing in mind that our max possible season's points haul stands at 73, that it will not rise, and that we've got 6 left to play as all others above who matter have 4...):

--Any two points won by Forest/dropped by us would give them a final placement above ours; Forest are currently third
--Any five points won by Cardiff/dropped by us would do likewise
--Any nine points won by Swansea/dropped by us
--Any ten points won by Leicester/dropped by us; Leicester are currently sixth
--Any eleven points won by Blackpool/dropped by us
--Any sixteen points won by Middlesbrough/dropped by us
--Any eighteen points won by Bristol City/dropped by us
--Any nineteen points won by Sheffield United and/or Doncaster Rovers/dropped by us

And so forth with those currently beneath us in the table, and note that Boro, as the others, only have 12 more for which to play; they and all others below them would need for us to drop points even if they were to take maximum points from their run-in --that's our two games in hand showing up in the calculations

I'd be loath to put a percentage on it, but I'd be prepared to wager anything you'd care to name on safety, and top-six is loooking very much a longshot; let's say we draw twice --that's four points dropped right there, and a loss would make it seven...and you've got to think that Leicester will sneak a win from their last four, but we go ahead and play the games so to find out

And I think it's absolutely terrific that the question remains open for asking --no relegation here, and mid-table oblivion either...just yet

[CMRoyal]

Thanks for all that - I guess those gained/dropped figures are what the politicians call "swings", ie a draw for us and a defeat for Sheff W (for example) is a swing of four points to us. So as regards the playoffs, despite our win, yesterday saw key teams like Leicester and Blackpool gaining three-point swings over us purely because we have one fewer game with which to catch them. This is Peter Snow, with his big swinging dick-substitute, for Election 2010...

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Yup --and what we're seeing is the same old "swings" as we saw back during last August; thing is that now, unlike then, we're running out of games remaining to be played --such that by now, failure to gain ground = falling farther behind

[Upper West Ginger]

What we need now is for Cardiff to undergo their annual end-of-season implosion, prefereably starting next Saturday.

[Sir Rodney Effing]

of course its possible you bunch of missfits.
A win against cov and its game on.
Leicester and Swansea are easily within reach.

How dare you call me a missfit.














I am a misfit. At least get the spelling right, you ill-educated little oik.

[Niko]

What we need now is for Cardiff to undergo their annual end-of-season implosion, prefereably starting next Saturday.

This Saturday would be better

[Cookie]

The words "Fools" and "Deluded" spring to mind.

Also long shot and outside chance and month of Sundays and .....

[Sarah Star]

What we need now is for Cardiff to undergo their annual end-of-season implosion, prefereably starting next Saturday.

This Saturday would be better

Ah, the old "this" Saturday, "next" Saturday debate

[Tony Le Mesmer]

Reading currently 7/1 to make top 6 on Betfair and 365.